A Farewell to Arms,one of Ernest Hemingway's master works,mainly tells us a love story between Henry,a volunteer ambulance driver and Catherine,a beautiful British nurse.They fall in love with each other.Unfortuna...A Farewell to Arms,one of Ernest Hemingway's master works,mainly tells us a love story between Henry,a volunteer ambulance driver and Catherine,a beautiful British nurse.They fall in love with each other.Unfortunately,their love turns out to be a tragedy with Catherine and their baby's death.In this tragic story,it seems that where there is "rain",there is disaster and uneasiness.Accordingly,this essay will talk about the symbolic uses of the "rain".展开更多
Objective: To explore the application effect of CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method in medical statistics courses. Methods: The undergraduate students of medical imaging technology in 2019 and 2020 in a u...Objective: To explore the application effect of CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method in medical statistics courses. Methods: The undergraduate students of medical imaging technology in 2019 and 2020 in a university were selected as the research objects. A cluster sampling method was used to select 79 undergraduate students from 2019 in the control group and 75 undergraduate students from 2020 in the experimental group. Traditional teaching method and CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method was used in the control group and experimental group respectively. The final examination scores of the two groups were compared. In experimental group, the correlation between the average score in the rain classroom and the final examination score was tested, and the teaching effect was evaluated. Results: The average score of final examination in experimental group and control group was 79.13 ± 10.32 points and 71.54 ± 14.752 points, respectively, which had a statistically significant difference (Z = 2.586, P = 0.012);the final examination scores of the students in the experimental group were positively correlated with the average scores of the rain classroom (r = 0.372, P = 0.001), and the proportion of satisfaction in the experimental group was 94.7%. Conclusion: The CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method can improve the teaching effectiveness of medical statistics courses.展开更多
The aim of this article is to predict the rainfall evolution of a sub-Saharan area in which one of the most important freshwater resources is located: Lake Guiers. Characterized by short seasonal rains of three months...The aim of this article is to predict the rainfall evolution of a sub-Saharan area in which one of the most important freshwater resources is located: Lake Guiers. Characterized by short seasonal rains of three months, it experienced a long period of drought in the 1970s. We begin by analyzing the temporal distribution of the rainfall including the variability of the data, with a view to predicting a possible return. For this reason, we present here univariate modeling results of rainfall series collected on three stations in the area. The challenge lies in the adequacy of the parameters for the monthly rainfall series, which generates more or less significant forecast errors on the learning bases because of the missing data. This later motivated their conversion to moving average series. On the other hand, the normality of the latter seems to be rejected by the D’Agostino test. Student’s and Mann-Whitney’s tests confirmed the homogeneity. The autocorlograms show the presence of autoregressive terms in the data. Dickey-Fuller and Mann-Kendall tests reveal both trend and seasonality. The stationarity tests of Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and KPSS have shown that they are non-stationary. As a result, we did an ARIMA modeling method using the Box-Jenkins [1] method with the R software, which involves estimating model parameters, tests of significance, analysis of residualss, selection according to information criteria and forecasts. The results obtained during the learning-test phase showed a quasi-similarity of the base-tests in all the series except for that of Louga.展开更多
Based on the NCEP data of the United States, a rainstorm process in South China during September 7 to 8, 2022 was studied. Synoptic method is a qualitative and empirical forecasting method. The results show that: In e...Based on the NCEP data of the United States, a rainstorm process in South China during September 7 to 8, 2022 was studied. Synoptic method is a qualitative and empirical forecasting method. The results show that: In early September 2022, the cold air behind the trough line from northeast China to North China can directly drive southward and invade South China from the east road. Typhoon Hinnamnor is located in the saddle field between the mainland subtropical high and the offshore subtropical high. It moves northward on the west side of the coastal subtropical high, affecting the Taiwan Island and the coastal areas of East China. During September 7-8, the wave trough of the 925 hPa Easterly wave was located near 110°E. Easterly jet existed in the southeast of South China. The center of the easterly jet was located to the east of Hainan Island, which could transport abundant water vapor from the sea surface to the sky over South China. The precipitable water in the whole layer of the atmosphere decreased from the southern coastal areas to the north, reaching more than 50 mm in southern China, of which most of the South China Sea, Hainan Island and parts of the western part of Guangdong Province exceeded 60 mm, providing sufficient water vapor supply. The circulation field with convergence at low level and divergence at high level is conducive to vertical uplift to form precipitation.展开更多
National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, automatic observation data, FY-2E satellite data and Doppler radar data are used to analyze a short-time local heavy rain in Yulin city, Shaanxi, Chi...National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, automatic observation data, FY-2E satellite data and Doppler radar data are used to analyze a short-time local heavy rain in Yulin city, Shaanxi, China on August 7, 2018. The result shows that the strong convective weather occurred in peripheral subtropical high over west pacific, being caused by short wave disturbance, and surface convergence lines with positive pressure variation are corresponding to areas of short-time heavy precipitation. The degree of temperature change in cold pool caused by thunderstorm may decide the intensity of a short-time rainfall, and local topography plays an important role in extreme precipitation. Local water vapour accumulation and water vapour flux convergence in the middle and lower layers support adequate moisture condition in the process. Moving direction and development direction of mesocale convective cloud are in a line to develop the train effect, leading to local short-time heavy rain in Yulin city, Shaanxi, China.展开更多
The SST variability during the summer period in the northeastern tropical Atlantic region (NTA) is characterized by an alternation of warming/cooling which represents 87% of the total variability. The aim of this pape...The SST variability during the summer period in the northeastern tropical Atlantic region (NTA) is characterized by an alternation of warming/cooling which represents 87% of the total variability. The aim of this paper is to study the atmospheric responses as well as the precipitation associated with these oceanic conditions. Based on Reynolds’s SST from 1982 to 2019, a normalized Northern Tropical Atlantic index (NTAI) is computed into the region between 15° - 25°W;12° - 16°N and a composite analysis is then performed. It is shown that the NTAI is significantly correlated with the SST’s first principal component mode (PC1) in this region. Moreover, the composite of SST anomalies and atmospheric parameters exhibits a strong local ocean-atmosphere interaction which highly impacts the large-scale atmospheric circulation in West Africa, particularly in the western Sahel. An in-depth analysis shows that the atmospheric response to the warm (cold) SST is a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation in the lower layers near the West Africa Coast. This cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation strengthens/reduces the moisture transport towards the continent in the low levels. In the middle layers of the atmosphere (500 hPa), the warm (cold) composite is associated with a decrease (increase) in the intensity of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) whereas, in the upper atmosphere (200 hPa), the strengthening (weakening) of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) is observed. With regard to the composite precipitation field, a positive/negative SST anomaly is associated with significantly enhanced/reduced rainfall in the western Sahelian region. It is found that this relationship (correlation) increases as we are closer to the coasts.展开更多
Summer Precipitation in Eastern China was closely related to the global sea surface temperature field. In this paper, the impact of the main sea surface temperature anomaly on flood season precipitation in China’s Hu...Summer Precipitation in Eastern China was closely related to the global sea surface temperature field. In this paper, the impact of the main sea surface temperature anomaly on flood season precipitation in China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions is examined as an external forcing factor for short-term climate prediction. Through analysis of global sea surface temperature anomalies and regional anomalies in Huanghuai and Jianghuai, a significant effect related to the main area, the North Pacific region, and the Nino3 corresponding index calculation is found. Various key areas are examined for their relevance, and finally, the mechanism of summer precipitation in two key zones, China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions, is briefly discussed. The main implication is the prediction of season precipitation based on the external forcing signal of sea surface temperature anomaly in China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions.展开更多
As global warming increasingly affects vulnerable regions such as Central East Africa, it is crucial to understand future changes in rainfall variability to reduce vulnerability. Despite the importance of rainfall var...As global warming increasingly affects vulnerable regions such as Central East Africa, it is crucial to understand future changes in rainfall variability to reduce vulnerability. Despite the importance of rainfall variability, it has received less attention compared to changes in mean and extreme rainfall. This study evaluates the amplification of synoptic (weekly) to annual variability of East African Monsoon (EAM) Long Rainfall (March to May) by climatic extremes. Using band-pass filtered daily rainfall data, we found that EAM rainfall variability is anticipated to increase by 20% - 60% across the region under global warming conditions. The majority of the intermodal variability in Long Rain EAM rainfall forecasting is explained by differences in mean rainfall. Our results show that the synoptic variability of Long Rain for EAM rainfall is likely to amplify, resulting in more extreme rainfall events and longer dry spells under global warming. This amplification is attributed to the warming of the Indian Ocean and the associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. The projected increase in synoptic to annual variability of Long Rain for EAM rainfall has significant implications for water resources management and agriculture in the region, challenging policymakers to develop adaptive strategies that can mitigate the impacts of these extreme events. This study emphasizes the potential impacts of projected climate changes in rainfall variability on the East African region at all periods and underscores the need for effective adaptation strategies to ensure sustainable development.展开更多
文摘A Farewell to Arms,one of Ernest Hemingway's master works,mainly tells us a love story between Henry,a volunteer ambulance driver and Catherine,a beautiful British nurse.They fall in love with each other.Unfortunately,their love turns out to be a tragedy with Catherine and their baby's death.In this tragic story,it seems that where there is "rain",there is disaster and uneasiness.Accordingly,this essay will talk about the symbolic uses of the "rain".
文摘Objective: To explore the application effect of CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method in medical statistics courses. Methods: The undergraduate students of medical imaging technology in 2019 and 2020 in a university were selected as the research objects. A cluster sampling method was used to select 79 undergraduate students from 2019 in the control group and 75 undergraduate students from 2020 in the experimental group. Traditional teaching method and CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method was used in the control group and experimental group respectively. The final examination scores of the two groups were compared. In experimental group, the correlation between the average score in the rain classroom and the final examination score was tested, and the teaching effect was evaluated. Results: The average score of final examination in experimental group and control group was 79.13 ± 10.32 points and 71.54 ± 14.752 points, respectively, which had a statistically significant difference (Z = 2.586, P = 0.012);the final examination scores of the students in the experimental group were positively correlated with the average scores of the rain classroom (r = 0.372, P = 0.001), and the proportion of satisfaction in the experimental group was 94.7%. Conclusion: The CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method can improve the teaching effectiveness of medical statistics courses.
文摘The aim of this article is to predict the rainfall evolution of a sub-Saharan area in which one of the most important freshwater resources is located: Lake Guiers. Characterized by short seasonal rains of three months, it experienced a long period of drought in the 1970s. We begin by analyzing the temporal distribution of the rainfall including the variability of the data, with a view to predicting a possible return. For this reason, we present here univariate modeling results of rainfall series collected on three stations in the area. The challenge lies in the adequacy of the parameters for the monthly rainfall series, which generates more or less significant forecast errors on the learning bases because of the missing data. This later motivated their conversion to moving average series. On the other hand, the normality of the latter seems to be rejected by the D’Agostino test. Student’s and Mann-Whitney’s tests confirmed the homogeneity. The autocorlograms show the presence of autoregressive terms in the data. Dickey-Fuller and Mann-Kendall tests reveal both trend and seasonality. The stationarity tests of Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and KPSS have shown that they are non-stationary. As a result, we did an ARIMA modeling method using the Box-Jenkins [1] method with the R software, which involves estimating model parameters, tests of significance, analysis of residualss, selection according to information criteria and forecasts. The results obtained during the learning-test phase showed a quasi-similarity of the base-tests in all the series except for that of Louga.
文摘Based on the NCEP data of the United States, a rainstorm process in South China during September 7 to 8, 2022 was studied. Synoptic method is a qualitative and empirical forecasting method. The results show that: In early September 2022, the cold air behind the trough line from northeast China to North China can directly drive southward and invade South China from the east road. Typhoon Hinnamnor is located in the saddle field between the mainland subtropical high and the offshore subtropical high. It moves northward on the west side of the coastal subtropical high, affecting the Taiwan Island and the coastal areas of East China. During September 7-8, the wave trough of the 925 hPa Easterly wave was located near 110°E. Easterly jet existed in the southeast of South China. The center of the easterly jet was located to the east of Hainan Island, which could transport abundant water vapor from the sea surface to the sky over South China. The precipitable water in the whole layer of the atmosphere decreased from the southern coastal areas to the north, reaching more than 50 mm in southern China, of which most of the South China Sea, Hainan Island and parts of the western part of Guangdong Province exceeded 60 mm, providing sufficient water vapor supply. The circulation field with convergence at low level and divergence at high level is conducive to vertical uplift to form precipitation.
文摘National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, automatic observation data, FY-2E satellite data and Doppler radar data are used to analyze a short-time local heavy rain in Yulin city, Shaanxi, China on August 7, 2018. The result shows that the strong convective weather occurred in peripheral subtropical high over west pacific, being caused by short wave disturbance, and surface convergence lines with positive pressure variation are corresponding to areas of short-time heavy precipitation. The degree of temperature change in cold pool caused by thunderstorm may decide the intensity of a short-time rainfall, and local topography plays an important role in extreme precipitation. Local water vapour accumulation and water vapour flux convergence in the middle and lower layers support adequate moisture condition in the process. Moving direction and development direction of mesocale convective cloud are in a line to develop the train effect, leading to local short-time heavy rain in Yulin city, Shaanxi, China.
文摘The SST variability during the summer period in the northeastern tropical Atlantic region (NTA) is characterized by an alternation of warming/cooling which represents 87% of the total variability. The aim of this paper is to study the atmospheric responses as well as the precipitation associated with these oceanic conditions. Based on Reynolds’s SST from 1982 to 2019, a normalized Northern Tropical Atlantic index (NTAI) is computed into the region between 15° - 25°W;12° - 16°N and a composite analysis is then performed. It is shown that the NTAI is significantly correlated with the SST’s first principal component mode (PC1) in this region. Moreover, the composite of SST anomalies and atmospheric parameters exhibits a strong local ocean-atmosphere interaction which highly impacts the large-scale atmospheric circulation in West Africa, particularly in the western Sahel. An in-depth analysis shows that the atmospheric response to the warm (cold) SST is a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation in the lower layers near the West Africa Coast. This cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation strengthens/reduces the moisture transport towards the continent in the low levels. In the middle layers of the atmosphere (500 hPa), the warm (cold) composite is associated with a decrease (increase) in the intensity of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) whereas, in the upper atmosphere (200 hPa), the strengthening (weakening) of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) is observed. With regard to the composite precipitation field, a positive/negative SST anomaly is associated with significantly enhanced/reduced rainfall in the western Sahelian region. It is found that this relationship (correlation) increases as we are closer to the coasts.
文摘Summer Precipitation in Eastern China was closely related to the global sea surface temperature field. In this paper, the impact of the main sea surface temperature anomaly on flood season precipitation in China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions is examined as an external forcing factor for short-term climate prediction. Through analysis of global sea surface temperature anomalies and regional anomalies in Huanghuai and Jianghuai, a significant effect related to the main area, the North Pacific region, and the Nino3 corresponding index calculation is found. Various key areas are examined for their relevance, and finally, the mechanism of summer precipitation in two key zones, China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions, is briefly discussed. The main implication is the prediction of season precipitation based on the external forcing signal of sea surface temperature anomaly in China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions.
文摘As global warming increasingly affects vulnerable regions such as Central East Africa, it is crucial to understand future changes in rainfall variability to reduce vulnerability. Despite the importance of rainfall variability, it has received less attention compared to changes in mean and extreme rainfall. This study evaluates the amplification of synoptic (weekly) to annual variability of East African Monsoon (EAM) Long Rainfall (March to May) by climatic extremes. Using band-pass filtered daily rainfall data, we found that EAM rainfall variability is anticipated to increase by 20% - 60% across the region under global warming conditions. The majority of the intermodal variability in Long Rain EAM rainfall forecasting is explained by differences in mean rainfall. Our results show that the synoptic variability of Long Rain for EAM rainfall is likely to amplify, resulting in more extreme rainfall events and longer dry spells under global warming. This amplification is attributed to the warming of the Indian Ocean and the associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. The projected increase in synoptic to annual variability of Long Rain for EAM rainfall has significant implications for water resources management and agriculture in the region, challenging policymakers to develop adaptive strategies that can mitigate the impacts of these extreme events. This study emphasizes the potential impacts of projected climate changes in rainfall variability on the East African region at all periods and underscores the need for effective adaptation strategies to ensure sustainable development.