An Evidence-Based CoCoSo Framework with Double Hierarchy Linguistic Data for Viable Selection of Hydrogen Storage Methods

Hydrogen is the new age alternative energy source to combat energy demand and climate change.Storage of hydrogen is vital for a nation’s growth.Works of literature provide different methods for storing the produced hydrogen,and the rational selection of a viable method is crucial for promoting sustainability and green practices.Typically,hydrogen storage is associated with diverse sustainable and circular economy(SCE)criteria.As a result,the authors consider the situation a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)problem.Studies infer that previous models for hydrogen storage method(HSM)selection(i)do not consider preferences in the natural language form;(ii)weights of experts are not methodically determined;(iii)hesitation of experts during criteria weight assessment is not effectively explored;and(iv)three-stage solution of a suitable selection of HSM is unexplored.Driven by these gaps,in this paper,authors put forward a new integrated framework,which considers double hierarchy linguistic information for rating,criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation(CRITIC)for expert weight calculation,evidence-based Bayesian method for criteria weight estimation,and combined compromise solution(CoCoSo)for ranking HSMs.The applicability of the developed framework is testified by using a case example of HSM selection in India.Sensitivity and comparative analysis reveal the merits and limitations of the developed framework.

RESEARCH ON THEORETIC EVIDENCE AND REALIZATION OF DIRECTLY-MEAN EMD METHOD

Emprical mode decomposition(EMD) is a method and principle of decomposing signal dealing with Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) in signal analysis, while directly-mean EMD is an improved EMD method presented by N.E.Huang, the inventor of HHT, which is aimed at solving the problems of EMD principle. Although the directly-mean HMD method is very remarkable with its advantages and N. E. Huang has given a method to realize it, he did not find the theoretic evidence of the method so that the feasibility of the idea and correctness of realizing the directly-mean EMD method is still indeterminate. For this a deep research on the forming process of complex signal is made and the involved stationary point principle and asymptotic stationary point principle are demonstrated, thus some theoretic evidences and the correct realizing way of directly-mean EMD method is firstly presented. Some simulation examples for demonstrating the idea presented are given.

Methodological exploration on the construction of a traditional Chinese medicine nursing expert consensus based on evidence--taking stroke as an example

Objective: To explore the methodology of the evidence-based expert consensus formulation process of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) nursing taking stroke as an example.Methods: First, preliminary and comprehensive presentation of all stroke-related symptoms and corresponding TCM nursing techniques involved were revealed through bibliometric analysis. Then, selection of stroke symptoms and TCM nursing techniques for inclusion in the consensus was performed using an expert consultation method. Next, we determined the search strategy for a precise evidence search;conducted an evaluation of evidence quality and the grade of the evidence;and completed evidence extraction, evidence analysis, and evidence synthesis based on the included symptoms and TCM nursing techniques. The Delphi method was then applied to determine the strength of each recommendation and the choice of nursing care points by referring to the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations grid. Finally, we conducted an external expert validation of the Delphi results to form an expert consensus guideline.Results: Through the bibliometric analysis, 22 stroke symptoms and 18 TCM nursing techniques were identified in the literature. Then, after expert consultation, 22 symptoms and 111 pairs of symptoms combined with TCM nursing techniques were selected for the evidence search. Evidence integration yielded 10 stroke symptoms corresponding to 29 bodies of evidence;these 10 symptoms were retained through the Delphi consultation, and recommendation strength results for 26 recommendations were obtained. A total of 9 symptoms were further retained for expert external validation to form 24 recommendations, with a recommendation process score range of 7.64-9.99 points and a more scientific and standardized recommendation-formation process.Conclusion: Owing to the current limited conditions of evidence-based resources for TCM nursing, the present consensus-building process represents only a preliminary exploration of an evidence-based expert consensus for TCM nursing to provide a reference for a more scientific and standardized methodology.

The Substantive Reform of Court Trials: A Transformation of Logic in the Methods of Evidence Investigation——Summary of the Reform Pilot Project in Chengdu

In the pilot project of the substantive reform of court trials,“unexpected” judgments appeared constantly because the traditional documentary investigation mode has been replaced by an investigation mode under the principle of directness and verbalism. This change in the logic of factual judgments has caused a change in the methods of evidence examination. In traditional evidence examination, evidence obtained from investigations is supposed to be genuine and reliable. In the substantive reform of court trials, it is presumed that evidence obtained from investigations cannot be fully trusted and it is easier to ascertain the facts of the case by investigating using the principles of directness, verbalism and individualized judging methods for evidence examinations. In practice, there are three main factors affecting the genuineness of evidence: the cognitive rules of testifiers, the motivation of the subjects who provide evidence, and the methods used by investigators to obtain evidence. Based on any one of these three factors, it cannot be concluded that evidence obtained from investigations is superior to evidence presented in court. The substantive court investigation is more advantageous to establishing the facts of a case than the traditional court investigation. The essential characteristics of the substantive reform of court trials are pursuing reality in essence instead of in form, and using the files of the court trials instead of the files of the investigation to avoid the evidence obtained through investigations from playing a decisive role in the adjudication thus making criminal procedures trial-centered rather than investigation-centered.

Development of an assessment and intervention protocol for postpartum hemorrhage in the mainland of China: an evidence-based method and Delphi consult

Objective: Postpartum hemorrhage(PPH) is a leading cause of maternal death. Although guidelines have been updated, those with detailed protocols are limited for nursing practice. This study aims at establishing an early assessment and intervention protocol as a toolkit for PPH for midwives and obstetrical nurses.Methods: Employing the evidence-based method, a systematic Internet search of guidelines was conducted and appraisal of literatures was conducted with AGREE system and Oxman-Guyatt Overview Quality Assessment Questionnaire(OQAQ), according to which a protocol draft was therefore developed. Then, a two-round modified Delphi method was utilized to reach a consensus of the protocol built on best practices. Selection criteria for each intervention measure included consensus level with a threshold of 70%, mean of importance(M) >3.5, and coefficient of variation(CV) <0.25. Reliability of experts' opinion was calculated by positive coefficient and authoritative coefficient. Items without consistency were enlisted in the second-round consult. When all items met the selection criteria, the protocol would be finally formulated.Results: A 122-measure protocol was established, including prevention, assessment, and intervention of PPH. With a panel of 14 experts participated in the consult, the positivity coefficient was 0.93 and 1.00 for two rounds, respectively, and the authority coefficient was 0.88. After a two-round consult and revision of the draft, the final program was formulated, containing 5 first-level indexes and 14 second-level indexes with a total item of 120.Conclusions: The PPH protocol, based on high-quality evidences, was formulated with a two-round Delphi method, which can provide insight for midwives and obstetrical nurses to effectively deal with PPH.

Application of evidence theory in information fusion of multiple sources in bayesian analysis

How to obtain proper prior distribution is one of the most critical problems in Bayesian analysis. In many practical cases, the prior information often comes from different sources, and the prior distribution form could be easily known in some certain way while the parameters are hard to determine. In this paper, based on the evidence theory, a new method is presented to fuse the information of multiple sources and determine the parameters of the prior distribution when the form is known. By taking the prior distributions which result from the information of multiple sources and converting them into corresponding mass functions which can be combined by Dempster-Shafer (D-S) method, we get the combined mass function and the representative points of the prior distribution. These points are used to fit with the given distribution form to determine the parameters of the prior distribution. And then the fused prior distribution is obtained and Bayesian analysis can be performed. How to convert the prior distributions into mass functions properly and get the representative points of the fused prior distribution is the central question we address in this paper. The simulation example shows that the proposed method is effective.

Principle of MSD floating-point division based on Newton-Raphson method on ternary optical computer

The division operation is not frequent relatively in traditional applications, but it is increasingly indispensable and important in many modern applications. In this paper, the implementation of modified signed-digit （MSD） floating-point division using Newton-Raphson method on the system of ternary optical computer （TOC） is studied. Since the addition of MSD floating-point is carry-free and the digit width of the system of TOC is large, it is easy to deal with the enough wide data and transform the division operation into multiplication and addition operations. And using data scan and truncation the problem of digits expansion is effectively solved in the range of error limit. The division gets the good results and the efficiency is high. The instance of MSD floating-point division shows that the method is feasible.

Real-Time Update of Sequence Placement Logic for High Arch Dams Based on Evidence Weight Discount

Sequence placement logic plays a significant role in construction simulation of high arch dams and directly affects the simulation process and results. To establish a sequence logic for dam block placement, the construction scheme, real-time construction process, and random factors of the site all need to be considered in detail. There are few studies available currently that take all these factors into consideration. To address this problem, a real-time update of sequence placement logic for high arch dams based on evidence weight discount is proposed in this study. First, the subjective weight of the dam block sequence priority criteria is built using a consistent matrix method based on the construction scheme. Second, using evidence theory, dynamic objective weight of the priority criteria and basic probability assignment is built. Finally, using a weight self-adaptive adjustment method and comprehensive evidence discounting, the placing probabilities of different dam blocks are obtained. A case study indicates that this method can realize real-time update of sequence placement logic. © 2017, Tianjin University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Academic Freedom,Feminism and the Probabilistic Conception of Evidence

There is a current debate about the extent to which Academic Freedom should be permitted in our universities.On the one hand,we have traditionalists who maintain that Academic Freedom should be unrestricted:people who have the appropriate qualifications and accomplishments should be allowed to develop theories about how the world is,or ought to be,as they see fit.On the other hand,we have post-traditional philosophers who argue against this degree of Academic Freedom.I consider a conservative version of post-traditional philosophy that permits restrictions on Academic Freedom only if the following conditions are met,Condition 1:The dissemination of the results of a given research project R must cause significant harm to some people,especially to people from oppressed groups.Condition 2:Condition 1 must possess strong empirical support,and which accepts the following assumptions:(1)there is a world of objective facts that is,in principle,discoverable,(2)rational means are the means of discovering it and,(3)rational means requires strong empirical support.I define strong empirical support for an hypothesis h on evidence e in probabilistic terms,as a ratio of posterior to prior probabilities substantially exceeding 1.I now argue in favour of a research policy that accepts unrestricted Academic Freedom.My argument is that there is a formal and general quandary that arises within the standard theory of probability when we apply this account of empirical support to a set of possible causal hypotheses framed in such a way that the“reverse probabilities”,pr(e/h)are 1.I consider various possible ways to escape this quandary,none of which are without difficulties,concluding that a research policy allowing for unrestricted Academic Freedom is probably the best that we can hope for.

创伤性伤口患者居家带伤洗浴方案的构建与初步验证研究

背景创伤是一种发生率高、耗费大的全球性健康问题,预防和控制感染是创伤性伤口处理的一大挑战,而创伤后长时间不进行皮肤清洗在影响舒适度的同时也增加伤口感染的发生率。尽管很多患者创伤后有洗浴的意愿,然而何时洗浴、如何洗浴尚不明确,因此,构建适宜的带伤洗浴方案对保持皮肤和伤口清洁十分必要。目的构建适合我国创伤性伤口患者使用的居家带伤洗浴方案,为保持创伤患者的皮肤清洁、改善伤口愈合结局提供可行的护理方案。方法检索国内外数据库获取原始文献,通过循证分析、归纳、小组讨论,形成创伤性伤口患者居家带伤洗浴方案的条目初稿。纳入15名副高职称以上的伤口护理专家,采用德尔菲专家函询法修改和完善带伤洗浴方案,每轮函询间隔1周,采用专家积极系数和权威系数评价函询结果的可靠性,采用变异系数评价函询结果的一致性,当变异系数<0.25时表示专家意见趋于一致,停止函询,形成修改稿。纳入门诊创伤性伤口患者30例进行预试验,采用Likert 5级评分验证带伤洗浴方案的便利性、安全性和患者依从性,讨论修改后形成最终方案。结果纳入23篇相关文献,循证分析、讨论后形成了“洗浴前准备”“洗浴操作”“洗浴后处理”3个一级条目、7个二级条目、9个三级条目和4个四级条目的创伤性伤口患者居家带伤洗浴方案初稿。15位专家进行2轮函询后意见趋于一致,两轮问卷回收率分别为93.75%和100.00%,权威系数分别为0.947和0.957。第一轮各条目重要性和可操作性变异系数分别为0~0.25、0~0.23,第二轮各条目重要性和可操作性变异系数分别为0.09~0.18、0.07~0.14,共删除条目2个,修改条目5个,新增条目2个,形成了修改稿。预试验验证结果:30例创伤性伤口患者依从洗浴方案每周洗浴(2.70±0.47)次,每次洗浴时间10~15 min,便利性评分(4.67±0.48)分,依从性评分(4.70±0.47)分,未发生与洗浴有关的不良事件及洗浴有关的伤口感染。预试验证明洗浴方案安全可靠、简单便利,患者依从性好,最终形成包括3个一级条目、8个二级条目、9个三级条目和3个四级条目的创伤性伤口患者居家带伤洗浴方案终稿。结论本研究构建创伤性伤口患者居家带伤洗浴方案过程中,专家积极系数和权威系数高,获得了函询专家的一致认可。预试验中30例创伤性伤口患者的依从性高,带伤洗浴方案安全、便利,可用于我国创伤性伤口患者居家带伤洗浴。

传统中药炮制研究的四重证据法

本草文献的传统研究方法主要是以乾嘉学派的考据学为主,是对古籍加以整理、校勘、注疏、辑佚的一种治学方法。近年来,黄璐琦院士将二重证据法运用于本草文献研究中,倡导本草考古,即在本草文献考证研究方法的基础上,进一步以出土的文物为依据,修正和补充历史文献的错漏、局限和缺佚。作者根据炮制文献研究的特殊性,提出在二重证据法的基础上,结合田野调查与炮制古法复原,并称为传统中药炮制研究的四重证据法,其核心内容为古法复原。运用该法着力解决:文献记载的炮制工艺是否真实的问题,古籍中同种药物不同炮制工艺的优劣比较问题,古代炮制文献中的疑难问题,现代中药炮制工艺中存在的问题,为新药研发提供新思路,并列举了具体的运用实例。

证据方法视阈下大数据证据诉讼应用及正当程序保障

证据方法的作用在于通过从客观上揭示证据内含的信息内容,联接证据与刑事证明。大数据证据表现出独特的建构性与质素多样性特征,使得现有证据的证据方法无所适从,需要依托融合性证据方法为其诉讼应用提供可操作性指引。而在刑事诉讼中运用融合性证据方法,可能对现有诉讼构造构成挑战。对此,可以从证据方法的工具与程序二维属性出发,建构正当程序保障:在工具属性维度,发挥法官庭外调查的能动、兜底性作用;在程序属性维度,构造“对等”性权利保障,弱化微观权力。

单晶高镍三元正极材料的制备及改性研究进展

介绍了单晶高镍三元正极材料的结构特点,总结了单晶高镍三元正极材料常见的制备工艺,并探讨了近年来材料性能改善的主要策略,可为高性能单晶高镍三元正极材料的规模化生产提供借鉴和参考。

基于不确定性的机坪管制系统风险评估

对机坪管制系统进行风险评估是提高机场安全水平的一个重要措施,但如何科学客观地评价机坪管制系统,得到贴近现实的评估结果是一个难题。基于此,建立了机坪管制系统风险评价体系,从组合权重法的观点出发,通过乘法归一化合成评价权重,并在模糊集理论的基础上引入DS证据论对某机场机坪管制系统进行实例评估,得出人员因素是机坪管制系统安全体系的重点这一结论,对机坪管制系统安全改进有较好的指导意义。

以学生为本的循证思维训练在临床药学专业教学中的改革探索

落实以人才培养为中心,打造“互联网+教育”背景下线上线下混合式教学模式的多样化课堂,构建以学生为中心的参与式教学体系,已成为现阶段高等院校教育教学改革的核心任务。针对应用型的临床药学专业学生,以培养“遵循临床证据、以实际疗效为准则的循证思维”为目标,探索开展“线上线下融合+多元方法+全程评价”的课堂改革,实现从“教师为主导”到“学生为中心”、从“单一方式授课”到“多通道自主学习”、从“终点考核”到“全过程并重”的转变,使学生在自主学习、自主思考、勇于质疑、敢于探索的过程中实现循证思维的深入种植和初步应用,最终提升临床药学专业人才培养的综合素质和职业胜任力。

基于D-S证据理论改进AHP-熵权的流域洪涝灾害评估研究

考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性以及承灾体易损性,选取指标构建小清河流域洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的改进AHP-熵权法计算指标权重,求取洪涝灾害风险指数,运用自然断点分级法确定洪涝灾害风险等级,分析小清河流域洪涝灾害风险空间分布情况。结果表明:小清河流域洪涝灾害风险总体上表现出南低北高的趋势,其中高风险区和较高风险区分别占流域面积的8.7%和14.3%,主要分布在小清河干流以及主要支流两岸。所得评估结果同“利奇马”台风发生期间实际洪灾风险分布情况一致,对比证明基于D-S证据理论的改进AHP-熵权法优于AHP和熵权法,可为小清河流域防洪减灾决策提供依据。

《山海经》夏启“右手操环”解码——佩玉环的史前巨人

论文以文学人类学的视角,利用四重证据法,探讨镇原县博物馆墓葬中,史前“巨人”佩玉环和《山海经》夏启“右手操环”的文化意义。史前巨人左手腕部的墨绿色玉环,将问题引向史前的玉环与葬俗文化间的关联。通过考察多个史前遗址考古新发现情况,认识到龙山文化时代较普遍的葬礼现象是将玉镯、玉环等套在墓主人右手或手臂上。这种奇特礼仪行为模式寄托着死者魂灵升天的幻想目标和动力。以此为基础,论文转向对《山海经》中“夏启右手操环”的叙事解读。通过考古发现与历史文献相结合的方式,发现该神话叙事与龙山文化时代右手戴玉环的葬俗吻合。玉环在史前文化中具有通神和象征永生不死的意义,关于夏代开国君王“右手操环”叙事之解码长期以来真相不明,如今得到史前玉环镯葬俗的考古真相之印证。玉环镯在神话传说与考古新发现之间的相互印证,彰显了四重证据法的“物证优先原则”在中华文明探源中的独特作用。

基于德尔菲法的中医药临床试验监查指标体系构建研究

目的基于德尔菲法构建中医药临床试验监查指标体系。方法通过文献研究法和临床监查实践经验,形成中医药临床试验基于风险的监查指标池;通过德尔菲法进行两轮的专家咨询,对于结果进行统计分析,并运用Yaahp软件中层次分析法(AHP)为指标体系的各项指标进行权重赋值。结果①初步形成了包含9个一级指标、22个二级指标和47个三级指标的中医药临床试验风险监查指标体系。②最终共邀请到15位从事临床监查、西医/中西医结合临床、中医临床、医院/行政管理、卫生统计相关领域的专家。③两轮专家咨询问卷有效回收率分别为93.75%和100%。④两轮专家咨询的权威系数(Cr)分别为0.760和0.775。⑤两轮专家咨询的协调系数分别为0.192(P<0.05)和0.194(P<0.05),两轮专家咨询的一级、二级、三级指标的变异系数(CV)均<0.25。⑥最终构建了包含4个一级指标、11个二级指标和45个三级指标的中医药临床试验风险监查指标体系。结论参与该研究的专家权威程度和积极性高,协调程度好;最终构建的指标体系中一级指标“研究设计管理”以及其二级指标和三级指标的权重相对较高,提示中医药临床试验的设计是决定临床试验结果的关键因素。

Structural damage detection method based on information fusion technique

Multi-source information fusion （MSIF） is imported into structural damage diagnosis methods to improve the validity of damage detection. After the introduction of the basic theory, the function model, classifications and mathematical methods of MSIF, a structural damage detection method based on MSIF is presented, which is to fuse two or more damage character vectors from different structural damage diagnosis methods on the character-level. In an experiment of concrete plates, modal information is measured and analyzed. The structural damage detection method based on MSIF is taken to localize cracks of concrete plates and it is proved to be effective. Results of damage detection by the method based on MSIF are compared with those from the modal strain energy method and the flexibility method. Damage, which can hardly be detected by using the single damage identification method, can be diagnosed by the damage detection method based on the character-level MSIF technique. Meanwhile multi-location damage can be identified by the method based on MSIF. This method is sensitive to structural damage and different mathematical methods for MSIF have different preconditions and applicabilities for diversified structures. How to choose mathematical methods for MSIF should be discussed in detail in health monitoring systems of actual structures.

基于最佳证据构建腹膜透析患者照护管理方案

目的构建腹膜透析患者照护管理方案,为医护人员对腹膜透析患者进行照护管理提供理论参考。方法系统检索国内外证据,以最佳证据总结为指导,构建腹膜透析患者照护管理方案初稿。2022年9─10月采用德尔菲法(专家咨询法)对34名专家进行函询,收集专家意见并修订,形成方案终稿。结果2轮专家函询问卷的有效回收率分别为89.47%和97.06%,专家的权威系数分别为0.936和0.942,第2轮函询中,一、二级条目专家意见协调系数分别为0.248和0.145(P<0.001)。最终确立腹膜透析患者照护管理方案包含7个一级指标,48个二级指标。结论为进一步提高腹膜透析患者居家治疗有效性,改善患者生活质量,采用德尔菲法构建了腹膜透析患者照护管理方案,可为医护人员临床实践提供参考。其可实施性和临床效益有待进一步验证。