Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.

Comparative Study of Probabilistic and Least-Squares Methods for Developing Predictive Models

This article explores the comparison between the probability method and the least squares method in the design of linear predictive models. It points out that these two approaches have distinct theoretical foundations and can lead to varied or similar results in terms of precision and performance under certain assumptions. The article underlines the importance of comparing these two approaches to choose the one best suited to the context, available data and modeling objectives.

A systematic machine learning method for reservoir identification and production prediction

Reservoir identification and production prediction are two of the most important tasks in petroleum exploration and development.Machine learning(ML)methods are used for petroleum-related studies,but have not been applied to reservoir identification and production prediction based on reservoir identification.Production forecasting studies are typically based on overall reservoir thickness and lack accuracy when reservoirs contain a water or dry layer without oil production.In this paper,a systematic ML method was developed using classification models for reservoir identification,and regression models for production prediction.The production models are based on the reservoir identification results.To realize the reservoir identification,seven optimized ML methods were used:four typical single ML methods and three ensemble ML methods.These methods classify the reservoir into five types of layers:water,dry and three levels of oil(I oil layer,II oil layer,III oil layer).The validation and test results of these seven optimized ML methods suggest the three ensemble methods perform better than the four single ML methods in reservoir identification.The XGBoost produced the model with the highest accuracy;up to 99%.The effective thickness of I and II oil layers determined during the reservoir identification was fed into the models for predicting production.Effective thickness considers the distribution of the water and the oil resulting in a more reasonable production prediction compared to predictions based on the overall reservoir thickness.To validate the superiority of the ML methods,reference models using overall reservoir thickness were built for comparison.The models based on effective thickness outperformed the reference models in every evaluation metric.The prediction accuracy of the ML models using effective thickness were 10%higher than that of reference model.Without the personal error or data distortion existing in traditional methods,this novel system realizes rapid analysis of data while reducing the time required to resolve reservoir classification and production prediction challenges.The ML models using the effective thickness obtained from reservoir identification were more accurate when predicting oil production compared to previous studies which use overall reservoir thickness.

A method for predicting the water-flowing fractured zone height based on an improved key stratum theory

In the process of using the original key stratum theory to predict the height of a water-flowing fractured zone(WFZ),the influence of rock strata outside the calculation range on the rock strata within the calculation range as well as the fact that the shape of the overburden deformation area will change with the excavation length are ignored.In this paper,an improved key stratum theory(IKS theory)was proposed by fixing these two shortcomings.Then,a WFZ height prediction method based on IKS theory was established and applied.First,the range of overburden involved in the analysis was determined according to the tensile stress distribution range above the goaf.Second,the key stratum in the overburden involved in the analysis was identified through IKS theory.Finally,the tendency of the WFZ to develop upward was determined by judging whether or not the identified key stratum will break.The proposed method was applied and verified in a mining case study,and the reasons for the differences in the development patterns between the WFZs in coalfields in Northwest and East China were also fully explained by this method.

Development of a Quantitative Prediction Support System Using the Linear Regression Method

The development of prediction supports is a critical step in information systems engineering in this era defined by the knowledge economy, the hub of which is big data. Currently, the lack of a predictive model, whether qualitative or quantitative, depending on a company’s areas of intervention can handicap or weaken its competitive capacities, endangering its survival. In terms of quantitative prediction, depending on the efficacy criteria, a variety of methods and/or tools are available. The multiple linear regression method is one of the methods used for this purpose. A linear regression model is a regression model of an explained variable on one or more explanatory variables in which the function that links the explanatory variables to the explained variable has linear parameters. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate how to use multiple linear regressions, which is one aspect of decisional mathematics. The use of multiple linear regressions on random data, which can be replaced by real data collected by or from organizations, provides decision makers with reliable data knowledge. As a result, machine learning methods can provide decision makers with relevant and trustworthy data. The main goal of this article is therefore to define the objective function on which the influencing factors for its optimization will be defined using the linear regression method.

Applications of Soft Computing Methods in Backbreak Assessment in Surface Mines: A Comprehensive Review

Geo-engineering problems are known for their complexity and high uncertainty levels,requiring precise defini-tions,past experiences,logical reasoning,mathematical analysis,and practical insight to address them effectively.Soft Computing(SC)methods have gained popularity in engineering disciplines such as mining and civil engineering due to computer hardware and machine learning advancements.Unlike traditional hard computing approaches,SC models use soft values and fuzzy sets to navigate uncertain environments.This study focuses on the application of SC methods to predict backbreak,a common issue in blasting operations within mining and civil projects.Backbreak,which refers to the unintended fracturing of rock beyond the desired blast perimeter,can significantly impact project timelines and costs.This study aims to explore how SC methods can be effectively employed to anticipate and mitigate the undesirable consequences of blasting operations,specifically focusing on backbreak prediction.The research explores the complexities of backbreak prediction and highlights the potential benefits of utilizing SC methods to address this challenging issue in geo-engineering projects.

Phase equilibrium data prediction and process optimizationin butadiene extraction process

In response to the lack of reliable physical parameters in the process simulation of the butadiene extraction,a large amount of phase equilibrium data were collected in the context of the actual process of butadiene production by acetonitrile.The accuracy of five prediction methods,UNIFAC(UNIQUAC Functional-group Activity Coefficients),UNIFAC-LL,UNIFAC-LBY,UNIFAC-DMD and COSMO-RS,applied to the butadiene extraction process was verified using partial phase equilibrium data.The results showed that the UNIFAC-DMD method had the highest accuracy in predicting phase equilibrium data for the missing system.COSMO-RS-predicted multiple systems showed good accuracy,and a large number of missing phase equilibrium data were estimated using the UNIFAC-DMD method and COSMO-RS method.The predicted phase equilibrium data were checked for consistency.The NRTL-RK(non-Random Two Liquid-Redlich-Kwong Equation of State)and UNIQUAC thermodynamic models were used to correlate the phase equilibrium data.Industrial device simulations were used to verify the accuracy of the thermodynamic model applied to the butadiene extraction process.The simulation results showed that the average deviations of the simulated results using the correlated thermodynamic model from the actual values were less than 2%compared to that using the commercial simulation software,Aspen Plus and its database.The average deviation was much smaller than that of the simulations using the Aspen Plus database(>10%),indicating that the obtained phase equilibrium data are highly accurate and reliable.The best phase equilibrium data and thermodynamic model parameters for butadiene extraction are provided.This improves the accuracy and reliability of the design,optimization and control of the process,and provides a basis and guarantee for developing a more environmentally friendly and economical butadiene extraction process.

Data-driven casting defect prediction model for sand casting based on random forest classification algorithm

The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.

Co-salient object detection with iterative purification and predictive optimization

Background Co-salient object detection(Co-SOD)aims to identify and segment commonly salient objects in a set of related images.However,most current Co-SOD methods encounter issues with the inclusion of irrelevant information in the co-representation.These issues hamper their ability to locate co-salient objects and significantly restrict the accuracy of detection.Methods To address this issue,this study introduces a novel Co-SOD method with iterative purification and predictive optimization(IPPO)comprising a common salient purification module(CSPM),predictive optimizing module(POM),and diminishing mixed enhancement block(DMEB).Results These components are designed to explore noise-free joint representations,assist the model in enhancing the quality of the final prediction results,and significantly improve the performance of the Co-SOD algorithm.Furthermore,through a comprehensive evaluation of IPPO and state-of-the-art algorithms focusing on the roles of CSPM,POM,and DMEB,our experiments confirmed that these components are pivotal in enhancing the performance of the model,substantiating the significant advancements of our method over existing benchmarks.Experiments on several challenging benchmark co-saliency datasets demonstrate that the proposed IPPO achieves state-of-the-art performance.

A new production component method for natural gas development planning

Based on an analysis of the limitations of conventional production component methods for natural gas development planning,this study proposes a new one that uses life cycle models for the trend fitting and prediction of production.In this new method,the annual production of old and new wells is predicted by year first and then is summed up to yield the production for the planning period.It shows that the changes in the production of old wells in old blocks can be fitted and predicted using the vapor pressure model(VPM),with precision of 80%e95%,which is 6.6%e13.2%higher than that of other life cycle models.Furthermore,a new production prediction process and method for new wells have been established based on this life cycle model to predict the production of medium-to-shallow gas reservoirs in western Sichuan Basin,with predication error of production rate in 2021 and 2022 being 6%and 3%respectively.The new method can be used to guide the medium-and long-term planning or annual scheme preparation for gas development.It is also applicable to planning for large single gas blocks that require continuous infill drilling and adjustment to improve gas recovery.

Nonparametric Statistical Feature Scaling Based Quadratic Regressive Convolution Deep Neural Network for Software Fault Prediction

The development of defect prediction plays a significant role in improving software quality. Such predictions are used to identify defective modules before the testing and to minimize the time and cost. The software with defects negatively impacts operational costs and finally affects customer satisfaction. Numerous approaches exist to predict software defects. However, the timely and accurate software bugs are the major challenging issues. To improve the timely and accurate software defect prediction, a novel technique called Nonparametric Statistical feature scaled QuAdratic regressive convolution Deep nEural Network (SQADEN) is introduced. The proposed SQADEN technique mainly includes two major processes namely metric or feature selection and classification. First, the SQADEN uses the nonparametric statistical Torgerson–Gower scaling technique for identifying the relevant software metrics by measuring the similarity using the dice coefficient. The feature selection process is used to minimize the time complexity of software fault prediction. With the selected metrics, software fault perdition with the help of the Quadratic Censored regressive convolution deep neural network-based classification. The deep learning classifier analyzes the training and testing samples using the contingency correlation coefficient. The softstep activation function is used to provide the final fault prediction results. To minimize the error, the Nelder–Mead method is applied to solve non-linear least-squares problems. Finally, accurate classification results with a minimum error are obtained at the output layer. Experimental evaluation is carried out with different quantitative metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F-measure, and time complexity. The analyzed results demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed SQADEN technique with maximum accuracy, sensitivity and specificity by 3%, 3%, 2% and 3% and minimum time and space by 13% and 15% when compared with the two state-of-the-art methods.

Prediction method of highway pavement rutting based on the grey theory

In order to make a scientific pavement maintenance decision, a grey-theory-based prediction methodological framework is proposed to predict pavement performance. Based on the field pavement rutting data,analysis of variance （ANOVA）was first used to study the influence of different factors on pavement rutting. Cluster analysis was then employed to investigate the rutting development trend.Based on the clustering results,the grey theory was applied to build pavement rutting models for each cluster, which can effectively reduce the complexity of the predictive model.The results show that axial load and asphalt binder type play important roles in rutting development.The prediction model is capable of capturing the uncertainty in the pavement performance prediction process and can meet the requirements of highway pavement maintenance,and,therefore,has a wide application prospects.

Projectile impact point prediction method based on GRNN

In order to forecast projectile impact points quickly and accurately,aprojectile impact point prediction method based on generalized regression neural network（GRNN）is presented.Firstly,the model of GRNN forecasting impact point is established;secondly,the particle swarm algorithm（PSD）is used to optimize the smooth factor in the prediction model and then the optimal GRNN impact point prediction model is obtained.Finally,the numerical simulation of this prediction model is carried out.Simulation results show that the maximum range error is no more than 40 m,and the lateral deviation error is less than0.2m.The average time of impact point prediction is 6.645 ms,which is 1 300.623 ms less than that of numerical integration method.Therefore,it is feasible and effective for the proposed method to forecast projectile impact points,and thus it can provide a theoretical reference for practical engineering applications.

Effects of Mapping Methods on Accuracy of Protein Coding Regions Prediction

[Objective] To discuss the effects of major mapping methods for DNA sequence on the accuracy of protein coding regions prediction,and to find out the effective mapping methods.[Method] By taking Approximate Correlation（AC） as the full measure of the prediction accuracy at nucleotide level,the windowed narrow pass-band filter（WNPBF） based prediction algorithm was applied to study the effects of different mapping methods on prediction accuracy.[Result] In DNA data sets ALLSEQ and HMR195,the Voss and Z-Curve methods are proved to be more effective mapping methods than paired numeric（PN）,Electron-ion Interaction Potential（EIIP） and complex number methods.[Conclusion] This study lays the foundation to verify the effectiveness of new mapping methods by using the predicted AC value,and it is meaningful to reveal DNA structure by using bioinformatics methods.

A Correction Method Suitable for Dynamical Seasonal Prediction

Based on the hindcast results of summer rainfall anomalies over China for the period 1981-2000 by the Dynamical Climate Prediction System （IAP-DCP） developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a correction method that can account for the dependence of model＇s systematic biases on SST anomalies is proposed. It is shown that this correction method can improve the hindcast skill of the IAP-DCP for summer rainfall anomalies over China, especially in western China and southeast China, which may imply its potential application to real-time seasonal prediction.

An integrated method of selecting environmental covariates for predictive soil depth mapping

Environmental covariates are the basis of predictive soil mapping.Their selection determines the performance of soil mapping to a great extent,especially in cases where the number of soil samples is limited but soil spatial heterogeneity is high.In this study,we proposed an integrated method to select environmental covariates for predictive soil depth mapping.First,candidate variables that may influence the development of soil depth were selected based on pedogenetic knowledge.Second,three conventional methods(Pearson correlation analysis(PsCA),generalized additive models(GAMs),and Random Forest(RF))were used to generate optimal combinations of environmental covariates.Finally,three optimal combinations were integrated to produce a final combination based on the importance and occurrence frequency of each environmental covariate.We tested this method for soil depth mapping in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China.A total of 129 soil sampling sites were collected using a representative sampling strategy,and RF and support vector machine(SVM)models were used to map soil depth.The results showed that compared to the set of environmental covariates selected by the three conventional selection methods,the set of environmental covariates selected by the proposed method achieved higher mapping accuracy.The combination from the proposed method obtained a root mean square error(RMSE)of 11.88 cm,which was 2.25–7.64 cm lower than the other methods,and an R^2 value of 0.76,which was 0.08–0.26 higher than the other methods.The results suggest that our method can be used as an alternative to the conventional methods for soil depth mapping and may also be effective for mapping other soil properties.

A prediction method for the performance of a low-recoil gun with front nozzle

One of the greatest challenges in the design of a gun is to balance muzzle velocity and recoil,especially for guns on aircrafts and deployable vehicles.To resolve the conflict between gun power and recoil force,a concept of rarefaction wave gun(RAVEN)was proposed to significantly reduce the weapon recoil and the heat in barrel,while minimally reducing the muzzle velocity.The main principle of RAVEN is that the rarefaction wave will not reach the projectile base until the muzzle by delaying the venting time of an expansion nozzle at the breech.Developed on the RAVEN principle,the purpose of this paper is to provide an engineering method for predicting the performance of a low-recoil gun with front nozzle.First,a two-dimensional two-phase flow model of interior ballistic during the RAVEN firing cycle was established.Numerical simulation results were compared with the published data to validate the reliability and accuracy.Next,the effects of the vent opening times and locations were investigated to determine the influence rules on the performance of the RAVEN with front nozzle.Then according to the results above,simple nonlinear fitting formulas were provided to explain how the muzzle velocity and the recoil force change with the vent opening time and location.Finally,a better vent venting opening time corresponding to the vent location was proposed.The findings should make an important contribution to the field of engineering applications of the RAVEN.

Casing life prediction using Borda and support vector machine methods

Eight casing failure modes and 32 risk factors in oil and gas wells are given in this paper. According to the quantitative analysis of the influence degree and occurrence probability of risk factors, the Borda counts for failure modes are obtained with the Borda method. The risk indexes of failure modes are derived from the Borda matrix. Based on the support vector machine （SVM）, a casing life prediction model is established. In the prediction model, eight risk indexes are defined as input vectors and casing life is defined as the output vector. The ideal model parameters are determined with the training set from 19 wells with casing failure. The casing life prediction software is developed with the SVM model as a predictor. The residual life of 60 wells with casing failure is predicted with the software, and then compared with the actual casing life. The comparison results show that the casing life prediction software with the SVM model has high accuracy.

Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction

In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model, Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.