《东池诗集》的故国之思与板荡之悲

《东池诗集》现存版本是中国国家图书馆馆藏清抄善本,收录了东池诗社五次集会交游唱和所作之诗,分为《东池初集》《东池再集》《东池三集》《东池四集》《东池五集》五卷,集前有叙或小引,记述每次集会的时间、缘由等,呈现了一幅生动的明代遗民诗人雅集赋诗的画卷。清初的遗民结社普遍带有政治色彩,因此清廷实行了严厉高压的社禁政策来打压此消彼长的反清运动。东池诗社初集的时间去清廷社禁不久,使得东池诗人作为一个纯粹的文人群体,不仅没有发起或参加现实反清运动,甚至在诗作中也不敢直抒国破之恨,几乎全然隐居草莽,展现着心念故国却无力改变现实、苟活于世的复杂心态。

《水浒后传》作者事迹新证

关于《水浒后传》的作者———陈忱的生平事迹历来都存在着一些模糊和错误的认识,现根据《东池诗集》和有关资料,对其进行了澄清和辨正。其实陈忱不仅是“惊隐诗社”的成员,同时还是“东池诗人”中的核心人物,依据《东池诗集.初集叙》可证实陈忱生于明万历乙卯仲春,即公元1615年3月,且自号“默容居士”。另外,《东池诗集》中有陈忱的八首诗为前人所未发现。这些都为研究陈忱的生平事迹和诗歌提供了新的材料。

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.

Variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool and its relation to the dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean

Based on the monthly average SST and 850 hPa monthly average wind data,the seasonal,interannual and long-term variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool(EIWP) and its relationship to the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD),and its response to the wind over the Indian Ocean are analyzed in this study.The results show that the distribution range,boundary and area of the EIWP exhibited obviously seasonal and interannual variations associated with the ENSO cycles.Further analysis suggests that the EIWP had obvious long-term trend in its bound edge and area,which indicated the EIWP migrated westwards by about 14 longitudes for its west edge,southwards by about 5 latitudes for its south edge and increased by 3.52×106 km2 for its area,respectively,from 1950 to 2002.The correlation and composite analyses show that the anomalous westward and northward displacements of the EIWP caused by the easterly wind anomaly and the southerly wind anomaly over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean played an important and direct role in the formation of the IOD.

A Potential Flood Hazard Caused by Tianchi Volcano Eruption in Changbai Mountain, Northeast China

Geohazards appear to be increasing in frequency globally. It is of necessity to actively manage these natural hazards to minimize loss of life and property. From an early warning perspective, this paper stresses the potential fatal flood hazard represented by the huge volume of water in Tianchi Lake, the unique geography of Changbai Mountain, and the limited flood control ability in the upstream of the Songhua River. Northeast Asian countries should keep a watchful eye on the Changbai volcano cooperatively, and Chinese government especially needs to prepare plans for fighting a flood in advance.

Monsoon-Ocean Coupled Modes in the South China Sea and Their Linkage with the Eastern Indian Ocean-Western Pacific Warm Pool

Monsoon-ocean coupled modes in the South China Sea （SCS） were investigated by a combined singular value decomposition （CSVD） analysis based on sea surface temperature （SST） and sea surface wind stress （SWS） fields from SODA （Simple Ocean Data Assimilation） data spanning the period of 1950-1999. The coupled fields achieved the maximum correlation when the SST lagged SWS by one month, indicating that the SCS coupled system mainly reflected the response of the SST to monsoon forcing. Three significant coupled modes were found in the SCS, accounting for more than 80% of the cumulative squared covariance fraction. The first three SST spatial patterns from CSVD were： （Ⅰ） the monopole pattern along the isobaths in the SCS central basin; （Ⅱ） the north-south dipole pattern; and （Ⅲ） the west-east seesaw pattern. The expansion coefficient of the SST leading mode showed interdecadal and interannual variability and correlation with the Indo-Pacific warm pool （IPWP）, suggesting that the SCS belongs to part of the IPWP at interannual and interdecadal time scales. The second mode had a lower correlation coefficient with the warm pool index because its main period was at intra-annual time scales instead of the interannual and interdecadal scales with the warm pools. The third mode had similar periods to those of the leading mode, but lagged the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool （EIWP） and western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） by five months and one year respectively, implying that the SCS response to the warm pool variation occurred from the western Pacific to the eastern Indian Ocean, which might have been related to the variation of Indonesian throughflow. All three modes in the SCS had more significant correlations with the EIWP, which means the SCS SST varied much more coherently with the EIWP than the WPWP, suggesting that the SCS belongs mostly to part of the EIWP. The expansion coefficients of the SCS SST modes all had negative correlations with the Nino3 index, which they lag by several months, indicating a remote response of SCS SST variability to the El Nifio events.

Economic Viability Analysis of Investment Alternatives for the Use of Biogas in a Pig Farming in the Middle East Area of Brazil

This paper presents an economic viability analysis of two investment alternatives for a pig farming located in the city of Jatai, Goias State, Brazil. The first investment alternative consists of the implementation of a biodigester, being the biogas burned in a flare. The second alternative also consists of a biodigester, nevertheless the produced biogas is used to generate electricity. The methodologies to estimate the methane production in anaerobic reactors are presented, as well as those for the quantification of the baseline and project emissions and of the electricity that can be generated. The results showed that the use of biogas for the electricity generation is the alternative more economically viable.

NUMERICAL MODELING STUDY OF EFFECTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON ENSO

In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data to study the impacts of eastern Pacific warm pool on the formation and development of ENSO events. The effects of climatological mean sea surface temperature of the warm pool on forecast skill during the ENSO events of 1982-1999 are more considerable that those of climatological mean meridional winds and ocean currents. The forecast skill for the 1997/1998 E1 Nifio event is characterized by sensitivity to climatological mean sea surface temperature and anomalies of northerly winds and currents. The forecast skill is found insensitive to climatological mean northerly meridional winds and currents.

东池

碧水清涟映古台，鱼穿倒柳甚悠哉。举樽不借歌头问，自有婵娟玉镜来。

Change of Indonesian Throughflow outflow in response to East Asian Monsoon and ENSO activities since the Last Glacial

The Indonesian Throughflow （ITF） links upper ocean waters of the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, modulates heat and fresh water budgets between these oceans, and in turn plays an important role in global climate change. The climatic phenomena such as the East Asian monsoon and E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） exert a strong influence on flux, water properties and vertical stratification of the ITF. This work studied sediments of Core SO 18462 that was retrieved from the outflow side of the ITF in the Timor Sea in order to investigate response of the ITF to monsoon and ENSO activities since the last glacial. Based on Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes in shells of planktonic foraminiferal surface and thermocline species, seawater temperatures and salinity of both surface and thermocline waters and vertical thermal gradient of the ITF outflow were recon- structed. Records of Core SO18462 were then compared with those from Core 3cBX that was recovered from the western Pa- cific warm pool （WPWP）. The results displayed that similar surface waters occurred in the Timor Sea and the WPWP during the last glacial. Since -16 ka, an apparent difference in surface waters between these two regions exists in salinity, indicated by much fresher waters in the Timor Sea than in the WPWP. In contrast, there is little change in difference of sea surface temper- atures （SSTs）. With regard to thermocline temperature （TT）, it increased until -11.5 ka since the last glacial, and then re- mained an overall unchanged trend in the WPWP but continuously decreased in the Timor Sea towards the late Holocene. Since ~6 ka, thermocline waters have tended to be close to each other in between the Timor Sea and the WPWP. It is indicated that intensified precipitation due to East Asian monsoon and possible ENSO cold phase significantly freshened surface waters over the Indonesian Seas, impeding the ITF surface flow and in turn having enhanced thermocline flow during the Holocene. Consequently, thermocline water of the ITF outflow was cooling and thermocline was shoaling towards the late Holocene. It is speculated that, in addition to strengthening of East Asian winter monsoon, increasing ENSO events during the late Holocene likely played an important role in influencing thermocline depth of the ITF outflow.