Hue-Saturation-Intensity （HSI） color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of to...Hue-Saturation-Intensity （HSI） color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of topsoil in the peri-urban Beijing. A two-dimensional legend was designed to accompany the visualization-vertical axis （hues） for visualizing the predicted values and horizontal axis （whiteness） for visualizing the prediction error. Moreover, different ways of visualizing uncertainty were briefly reviewed in this paper. This case study indicated that visualization of both predictions and prediction uncertainty offered a possibility to enhance visual exploration of the data uncertainty and to compare different prediction methods or predictions of totally different variables. The whitish region of the visualization map can be simply interpreted as unsatisfactory prediction results, where may need additional samples or more suitable prediction models for a better prediction results.展开更多
We compared data of sea surface wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim) with that collected from eight buoys deployed in the Yellow and East China seas.The buoy...We compared data of sea surface wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim) with that collected from eight buoys deployed in the Yellow and East China seas.The buoy data covered a period from 2010 to 2011,during which the longest time series without missing data extended for 329 days.Results show that the ERA-Interim wind data agree well with the buoy data.The regression coefficients between the ERA-Interim and observed wind speed and direction are greater than 0.7 and 0.79,respectively.However,the ERA-Interim wind data overestimate wind speed at most of the buoy stations,for which the largest bias is 1.8 m/s.Moreover,it is found from scatter plots of wind direction that about 13%of the ERA-Interim wind data can be classified as bad for wind speeds below6 m/s.Overall,the ERA-Interim data forecast both the wind speed and direction well,although they are not very representative of our observations,especially those where the wind speed is below 6 m/s.展开更多
Hepatic cirrhosis is a common disease that poses a serious threat to public health, and is characterized by chronic,progressive and diffuse hepatic lesions preceded by hepaticfibrosis regardless of the exact etiologie...Hepatic cirrhosis is a common disease that poses a serious threat to public health, and is characterized by chronic,progressive and diffuse hepatic lesions preceded by hepaticfibrosis regardless of the exact etiologies. In recent years,considerable achievements have been made in China in research of the etiopathogenesis, diagnosis and especially the treatment of hepatic fibrosis, resulting in much improved prognosis of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis. In this paper, the authors review the current status of research in hepatic fibrosis, cirrhosis and their major complications.展开更多
A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April...A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April May.The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied.The model was cross-validated using data from 1979 2002.The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76,respectively.When the predictions of the two models were averaged,the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18,an exceptionally high score.Therefore,this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.展开更多
Based on the real case of a frontal precipitation process affecting South China, 27 controlled numerical experiments was made for the effects of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic effects, different driving models, combi...Based on the real case of a frontal precipitation process affecting South China, 27 controlled numerical experiments was made for the effects of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic effects, different driving models, combinations of initial/boundary conditions, updates of lateral values and initial time levels of forecast, on model predictions. Features about the impact of initial/boundary conditions on mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are analyzed and discussed in detail. Some theoretically and practically valuable conclusions are drawn. It is found that the overall tendency of mesoscale NWP models is governed by its driving model, with the initial conditions showing remarkable impacts on mesoscale models for the first I0 hours of the predictions while leaving lateral boundary conditions to take care the period beyond; the latter affect the inner area of mesoscale predictions mainly through the propagation and movement of weather signals (waves) of different time scales; initial values of external model parameters such as soil moisture content may affect predictions of more longer time validity, while fast signals may be filtered away and only information with time scale 4 times as large as or more than the updated period of boundary values may be introduced, through lateral boundary, to mesoseale models, etc. Some results may be taken as important guidance on mesoseale model and its data a.ssimilation developments of the future.展开更多
Based on the tropical cyclone data from the Central Meteorological Observatory of China, Japan Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） durin...Based on the tropical cyclone data from the Central Meteorological Observatory of China, Japan Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） during the period of 2004 to 2009, three consensus methods are used in tropical cyclone （TC） track forecasts. Operational consensus results show that the objective forecasts of ECMWF help to improve consensus skill by 2%, 3%-5% and 3%-5%, decrease track bias by 2.5 kin, 6-9 km and 10-12 km for the 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts respectively over the years of 2007 to 2009. Analysis also indicates that consensus forecasts hold positive skills relative to each member. The multivariate regression composite is a method that shows relatively low skill, while the methods of arithmetic averaging and composite （in which the weighting coefficient is the reciprocal square of mean error of members） have almost comparable skills among members. Consensus forecast for a lead time of 96 h has negative skill relative to the ECMWF objective forecast.展开更多
From observing cores of 18 wells,identifying 175 ordinary thin sections and 61 thin casting sections,energy spectrum analyses of 37 samples,homogenization temperature measurement of fluid inclusions of 11 samples,we d...From observing cores of 18 wells,identifying 175 ordinary thin sections and 61 thin casting sections,energy spectrum analyses of 37 samples,homogenization temperature measurement of fluid inclusions of 11 samples,we determine the types of diagenesis and pores of the Fuyu oil reservoir in the north Qijia region.We classified the pores and measured their plane porosity using CIA 2000,the software of rock image analysis,calculated the effect of different kinds of diagenesis on porosity,studied the controlling actions of diagenesis to pore evolution quantitatively,combined with burial history,thermal history and their diagenetic environments.Our results show that mechanical compaction and carbonate cementation are the major destructive diagenesed,developed during early diagenesis stages.The reduction in porosity by mechanical compaction and carbonate cementation are about 25% and 8%,while the destructive intensity of siliceous cementation and clay mineral cementation is relatively much smaller,i.e.,the reduction of porosity is about 2% and 0.2% Dissolution is constructive diagenesis,the increment of porosity is about 6%.There are four diagenesis evolution stages,during which the porosity reduced from 30%～38% to 2%～20%.Mechanical compaction and early cementation are the main diageneses in the early diagenesis stages,when porosity was reduced to 2%～10%.Dissolution is the main diagenesis of an A I substage of the middle diagenesis stage,when porosity increased 1%～8%.The dissolution of the A Ⅱ substage of the middle diagenesis stage affected by late cementation,raised porosity 1%～5%.The porosity varied slightly during the middle stage B.展开更多
Tertiary sandstones collected from southwest Sarawak, Malaysia, were analyzed to decipher their provenance, weathering, and tectonic setting. The studied sandstones have a sublitharenite composition and are dominantly...Tertiary sandstones collected from southwest Sarawak, Malaysia, were analyzed to decipher their provenance, weathering, and tectonic setting. The studied sandstones have a sublitharenite composition and are dominantly composed quartz with little mica and feldspar, and a small amount of volcanic fragments. These sand- stones were generally derived from quartz-rich recycled orogenic sources. They have relatively high SiO2 content with low Na20, CaO, MnO, and MgO contents. Values of Chemical Index of Alteration （CIA） of these rock samples vary from 71 to 93, with an average of 81, implying intense chemical alteration during weathering. A felsic igneous source is suggested by a low concentration of TiO2 com- pared to CIA, enrichment of Light Rare Earth Elements, depletion of Heavy Rare Earth Elements, and negative Eu anomalies. A felsic origin is further supported by a Eu/Eu＊ range of 0.65-0.85 and high Th/Sc, La/Sc, La/Co, and Th/ Co ratios. This work presents the first reported geochemical data of Tertiary sandstones of the Sarawak Basin. These data led us to conclude that the sandstones were dislodged from recycled orogenic sources and deposited in a slowly subsiding rifted basin in a passive continental tectonic setting.展开更多
In order to accurately forecast the load of power system and enhance the stability of the power network, a novel unascertained mathematics based recurrent neural network (UMRNN) for power intelligence center (PIC) was...In order to accurately forecast the load of power system and enhance the stability of the power network, a novel unascertained mathematics based recurrent neural network (UMRNN) for power intelligence center (PIC) was created through three steps. First, by combining with the general project uncertain element transmission theory (GPUET), the basic definitions of stochastic, fuzzy, and grey uncertain elements were given based on the principal types of uncertain information. Second, a power dynamic alliance including four sectors: generation sector, transmission sector, distribution sector and customers was established. The key factors were amended according to the four transmission topologies of uncertain elements, thus the new factors entered the power intelligence center as the input elements. Finally, in the intelligence handing background of PIC, by performing uncertain and recursive process to the input values of network, and combining unascertained mathematics, the novel load forecasting model was built. Three different approaches were put forward to forecast an eastern regional power grid load in China. The root mean square error (ERMS) demonstrates that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model UMRNN is 3% higher than that of BP neural network (BPNN), and 5% higher than that of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Besides, an example also shows that the average relative error of the first quarter of 2008 forecasted by UMRNN is only 2.59%, which has high precision.展开更多
Cloacogenic carcinoma is a rare tumor of rectum and anus,which originating from epithelium of the anal transition zone of embryonic residuals.We described the medical history of two patients with cloacogenic carcinoma...Cloacogenic carcinoma is a rare tumor of rectum and anus,which originating from epithelium of the anal transition zone of embryonic residuals.We described the medical history of two patients with cloacogenic carcinoma of anal canal and reviewed of the Chinese literature(January 1994 to March 2009).In conclusion,cloacogenic carcinoma of anal canal can obtain good results with a abdominoperineal excision(APE).展开更多
This paper identifies metaphors in newspaper English, specifically the articles in China Daily, as the research object. Many linguists have studies metaphors in newspaper English, but research perspective is only limi...This paper identifies metaphors in newspaper English, specifically the articles in China Daily, as the research object. Many linguists have studies metaphors in newspaper English, but research perspective is only limited to the classification of metaphor, and not analyses the trends for each type of metaphor from the diachronic approach, therefore, this paper aims to make up for this deficiency. Thirty-six articles are randomly sampled from China Daily in the year of 2010, to make up a small corpus. Then the occurrence frequency of every kind of metaphor of recent years in this corpus is analyzed. Finally, it is found that the occurrence frequency of orientational metaphors shows a decreasing tendency, while those of the ontological and structural metaphors are relatively stable. We have found two reasons for this trend appears. Firstly, orientational metaphors are used less frequently, because they often appear when it comes to the description of numbers, and digital change itself has a lot of direct expression Secondly, structural metaphor and ontological metaphor are relatively stable, because the former helps the readers to understand the new things; the latter can expressed lively展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Frontier Project of Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.ISSASIP0716 )the National Nature Science Foundation of China ( No.40701070,40571065)
文摘Hue-Saturation-Intensity （HSI） color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of topsoil in the peri-urban Beijing. A two-dimensional legend was designed to accompany the visualization-vertical axis （hues） for visualizing the predicted values and horizontal axis （whiteness） for visualizing the prediction error. Moreover, different ways of visualizing uncertainty were briefly reviewed in this paper. This case study indicated that visualization of both predictions and prediction uncertainty offered a possibility to enhance visual exploration of the data uncertainty and to compare different prediction methods or predictions of totally different variables. The whitish region of the visualization map can be simply interpreted as unsatisfactory prediction results, where may need additional samples or more suitable prediction models for a better prediction results.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41276026)the Ocean Special Project(No.XDA11020301)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2009CB421205)
文摘We compared data of sea surface wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim) with that collected from eight buoys deployed in the Yellow and East China seas.The buoy data covered a period from 2010 to 2011,during which the longest time series without missing data extended for 329 days.Results show that the ERA-Interim wind data agree well with the buoy data.The regression coefficients between the ERA-Interim and observed wind speed and direction are greater than 0.7 and 0.79,respectively.However,the ERA-Interim wind data overestimate wind speed at most of the buoy stations,for which the largest bias is 1.8 m/s.Moreover,it is found from scatter plots of wind direction that about 13%of the ERA-Interim wind data can be classified as bad for wind speeds below6 m/s.Overall,the ERA-Interim data forecast both the wind speed and direction well,although they are not very representative of our observations,especially those where the wind speed is below 6 m/s.
文摘Hepatic cirrhosis is a common disease that poses a serious threat to public health, and is characterized by chronic,progressive and diffuse hepatic lesions preceded by hepaticfibrosis regardless of the exact etiologies. In recent years,considerable achievements have been made in China in research of the etiopathogenesis, diagnosis and especially the treatment of hepatic fibrosis, resulting in much improved prognosis of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis. In this paper, the authors review the current status of research in hepatic fibrosis, cirrhosis and their major complications.
基金supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005 and 40875048)
文摘A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April May.The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied.The model was cross-validated using data from 1979 2002.The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76,respectively.When the predictions of the two models were averaged,the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18,an exceptionally high score.Therefore,this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.
基金National Project "973" (Research on Heavy Rain in China) and BMBF of Germany (WTZ- Project CHN01/106)
文摘Based on the real case of a frontal precipitation process affecting South China, 27 controlled numerical experiments was made for the effects of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic effects, different driving models, combinations of initial/boundary conditions, updates of lateral values and initial time levels of forecast, on model predictions. Features about the impact of initial/boundary conditions on mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are analyzed and discussed in detail. Some theoretically and practically valuable conclusions are drawn. It is found that the overall tendency of mesoscale NWP models is governed by its driving model, with the initial conditions showing remarkable impacts on mesoscale models for the first I0 hours of the predictions while leaving lateral boundary conditions to take care the period beyond; the latter affect the inner area of mesoscale predictions mainly through the propagation and movement of weather signals (waves) of different time scales; initial values of external model parameters such as soil moisture content may affect predictions of more longer time validity, while fast signals may be filtered away and only information with time scale 4 times as large as or more than the updated period of boundary values may be introduced, through lateral boundary, to mesoseale models, etc. Some results may be taken as important guidance on mesoseale model and its data a.ssimilation developments of the future.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of Ningbo City(2013A610124)Ningbo Planning Project of Science and Technology(2012C50044)Nanhai Disaster Mitigation Fund of Hainan Provincial Meteorological Bureau(NH2008ZY02)
文摘Based on the tropical cyclone data from the Central Meteorological Observatory of China, Japan Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） during the period of 2004 to 2009, three consensus methods are used in tropical cyclone （TC） track forecasts. Operational consensus results show that the objective forecasts of ECMWF help to improve consensus skill by 2%, 3%-5% and 3%-5%, decrease track bias by 2.5 kin, 6-9 km and 10-12 km for the 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts respectively over the years of 2007 to 2009. Analysis also indicates that consensus forecasts hold positive skills relative to each member. The multivariate regression composite is a method that shows relatively low skill, while the methods of arithmetic averaging and composite （in which the weighting coefficient is the reciprocal square of mean error of members） have almost comparable skills among members. Consensus forecast for a lead time of 96 h has negative skill relative to the ECMWF objective forecast.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China (No.2009 CB219306)the Important National Science & Technology Specific Projects (No.2009GYXQ14)
文摘From observing cores of 18 wells,identifying 175 ordinary thin sections and 61 thin casting sections,energy spectrum analyses of 37 samples,homogenization temperature measurement of fluid inclusions of 11 samples,we determine the types of diagenesis and pores of the Fuyu oil reservoir in the north Qijia region.We classified the pores and measured their plane porosity using CIA 2000,the software of rock image analysis,calculated the effect of different kinds of diagenesis on porosity,studied the controlling actions of diagenesis to pore evolution quantitatively,combined with burial history,thermal history and their diagenetic environments.Our results show that mechanical compaction and carbonate cementation are the major destructive diagenesed,developed during early diagenesis stages.The reduction in porosity by mechanical compaction and carbonate cementation are about 25% and 8%,while the destructive intensity of siliceous cementation and clay mineral cementation is relatively much smaller,i.e.,the reduction of porosity is about 2% and 0.2% Dissolution is constructive diagenesis,the increment of porosity is about 6%.There are four diagenesis evolution stages,during which the porosity reduced from 30%～38% to 2%～20%.Mechanical compaction and early cementation are the main diageneses in the early diagenesis stages,when porosity was reduced to 2%～10%.Dissolution is the main diagenesis of an A I substage of the middle diagenesis stage,when porosity increased 1%～8%.The dissolution of the A Ⅱ substage of the middle diagenesis stage affected by late cementation,raised porosity 1%～5%.The porosity varied slightly during the middle stage B.
基金the project (PPP) PG003-2013A of the University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in carrying out this research work is gratefully acknowledgedthe project RP002C-13AFR of the University of Malaya is also gratefully acknowledged
文摘Tertiary sandstones collected from southwest Sarawak, Malaysia, were analyzed to decipher their provenance, weathering, and tectonic setting. The studied sandstones have a sublitharenite composition and are dominantly composed quartz with little mica and feldspar, and a small amount of volcanic fragments. These sand- stones were generally derived from quartz-rich recycled orogenic sources. They have relatively high SiO2 content with low Na20, CaO, MnO, and MgO contents. Values of Chemical Index of Alteration （CIA） of these rock samples vary from 71 to 93, with an average of 81, implying intense chemical alteration during weathering. A felsic igneous source is suggested by a low concentration of TiO2 com- pared to CIA, enrichment of Light Rare Earth Elements, depletion of Heavy Rare Earth Elements, and negative Eu anomalies. A felsic origin is further supported by a Eu/Eu＊ range of 0.65-0.85 and high Th/Sc, La/Sc, La/Co, and Th/ Co ratios. This work presents the first reported geochemical data of Tertiary sandstones of the Sarawak Basin. These data led us to conclude that the sandstones were dislodged from recycled orogenic sources and deposited in a slowly subsiding rifted basin in a passive continental tectonic setting.
基金Projects(70572090, 70373017) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to accurately forecast the load of power system and enhance the stability of the power network, a novel unascertained mathematics based recurrent neural network (UMRNN) for power intelligence center (PIC) was created through three steps. First, by combining with the general project uncertain element transmission theory (GPUET), the basic definitions of stochastic, fuzzy, and grey uncertain elements were given based on the principal types of uncertain information. Second, a power dynamic alliance including four sectors: generation sector, transmission sector, distribution sector and customers was established. The key factors were amended according to the four transmission topologies of uncertain elements, thus the new factors entered the power intelligence center as the input elements. Finally, in the intelligence handing background of PIC, by performing uncertain and recursive process to the input values of network, and combining unascertained mathematics, the novel load forecasting model was built. Three different approaches were put forward to forecast an eastern regional power grid load in China. The root mean square error (ERMS) demonstrates that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model UMRNN is 3% higher than that of BP neural network (BPNN), and 5% higher than that of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Besides, an example also shows that the average relative error of the first quarter of 2008 forecasted by UMRNN is only 2.59%, which has high precision.
文摘Cloacogenic carcinoma is a rare tumor of rectum and anus,which originating from epithelium of the anal transition zone of embryonic residuals.We described the medical history of two patients with cloacogenic carcinoma of anal canal and reviewed of the Chinese literature(January 1994 to March 2009).In conclusion,cloacogenic carcinoma of anal canal can obtain good results with a abdominoperineal excision(APE).
文摘This paper identifies metaphors in newspaper English, specifically the articles in China Daily, as the research object. Many linguists have studies metaphors in newspaper English, but research perspective is only limited to the classification of metaphor, and not analyses the trends for each type of metaphor from the diachronic approach, therefore, this paper aims to make up for this deficiency. Thirty-six articles are randomly sampled from China Daily in the year of 2010, to make up a small corpus. Then the occurrence frequency of every kind of metaphor of recent years in this corpus is analyzed. Finally, it is found that the occurrence frequency of orientational metaphors shows a decreasing tendency, while those of the ontological and structural metaphors are relatively stable. We have found two reasons for this trend appears. Firstly, orientational metaphors are used less frequently, because they often appear when it comes to the description of numbers, and digital change itself has a lot of direct expression Secondly, structural metaphor and ontological metaphor are relatively stable, because the former helps the readers to understand the new things; the latter can expressed lively
