CRITICAL HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FOR OVERFLOW BURST OF MORAINE LAKE

Floodwater and debris flow caused by glacial lake burst is an important land process and a serious mountain disaster in glacial area of Xizang (Tibet) Autonomous Region, and the overflow burst is mainly caused by glacial landslide falling into moraine lake. On the premise that moraine lake is full, instantaneous burst in part of the lake bank happens, as flow velocity at burst mouth caused by overflow head is higher than threshold flow velocity of glacial till. Under some supposes, d(90) and d(10) of the glacial till in the hank were used as the threshold sizes of coarse and fine grains respectively. Thus, the formula of calculating threshold flow velocity of uniform sand was simplified, and threshold flow velocity of glacial till was calculated with the formula. Then, with synthesis formula calculating flow velocity of instantaneous part burst, flow velocity at overflow burst mouth was calculated, and calculation formula of critical height (H(0)) of overflow head was derived. Overflow head was caused by volume and surge of glacial landslide falling into moraine lake, calculation formulas of ascendant height (H(1)) of lake water surface and surge height (H(2)) on burst mouth caused by glacial landslide falling into moraine lake were derived. To sum up, critical hydrologic conditions of moraine lake burst with overflow form are: the burst is inevitable as H(1) > H(0); the burst is possible as H(1) < H(0) and (H(1)+H(2)) > H(0); the burst is impossible as (H(1)+H(2)) < H(0). In the factors influencing the burst critical conditions, it is advantageous for the burst that scale of the lake is 10(5)m(2) range; terminal glacial till is more fine and is even more uniform; the width of overflow mouth is even smaller than the length of the bank; the landslide has large scale and steep slip surface; and glacial end is close to the lake. With burst of Guangxiecuo Lake in Midui Valley of the Polongzangbu River in Xizang as an example, the burst critical conditions were tested.

The Two Main Mechanisms of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in Tibet,China

With the global warming,the disasters of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) have taken place frequently in Tibet in recent years and attracted more and more attention.A systematic survey was conducted on the 19 GLOFs in Tibet to study their two main mechanisms.Investigations indicated that all the events occurred in end-moraine lakes,and the outburst occurred partially and instantly.And the breach had the shape of an arc or a trapezoid in overflow outburst and its top width was 3-5 times more than the height.The two main mechanisms of GLOFs in Tibetan end-moraine Lake were overflow and piping,and the overflow mechanism caused by iceberg collapse was dominated in most cases.A formula was proposed to calculate the critical thickness of iceberg tongue that determines the collapse.Granular analysis of the moraine materials revealed that seepage deformation is crucial in the outburst process.Finally,we conducted a case study of the Guangxiecuo Lake to show its possible process of outburst and estimated the peak discharge of the resulted flood.

Digital Terrain Modelling Using Corona and ALOS PRISM Data to Investigate the Distal Part of Imja Glacier,Khumbu Himal,Nepal

This study used Corona KH-4A and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) PRISM images to generate digital terrain models (DTMs) of the distal part of Imja Glacier,where a few supraglacial ponds (～0.07 km 2) expanded into the large Imja Glacier Lake (Imja Tsho,～0.91 km 2) between 1964 and 2006.DTMs and subsequently derived topographical maps with contour intervals of 1 m were created from the high-resolution images (Corona in 1964 and ALOS in 2006) in the Leica Photogrammetric Suite (LPS) platform.The DTMs and topographic maps provided excellent representation of the elevation and micro-topography of the glacier surface,such as its supra-glacial ponds/lake,surface depressions,and moraine ridges,with an error of about +/-4 m (maximum).The DTMs produced from the Corona and ALOS PRISM images are suitable for use in studies of the surface change of glaciers.The topographical maps produced from the Corona data (1964) showed that part of the dead ice in the down-glacier area was even higher than the top of the lateral moraine ridges,while the glacier surface in the up-glacier area was noticeably lower than the moraine crests.This suggests more extensive melting of glacier ice in the up-glacier area before 1964.The average lowering of the glacier surface from 1964 to 2006 was 16.9 m for the dead-ice area west of the lake and 47.4 m for the glacier surface east of the lake;between 1964 and 2002,the lake surface lowered by 82.3 m.These figures represent average lowering rates of 0.4,1.1,and 2.2 m/year for the respective areas.

Improvement of Glacial Lakes Detection under Shadow Environment Using ASTER Data in Himalayas, Nepal

The detection of glacial lake change in the Himalayas, Nepal is extremely significant since the glacial lake change is one of the crucial indicators of global climate change in this area, where is the most sensitive area of the global climate changes. In the Hima- layas, some of glacial lakes are covered by the dark mountains＇ shadow because of their location. Therefore, these lakes can not be de- tected by conventional method such as Normalized Difference Water Index （NDWI）, because the reflectance feature of shadowed glacial lake is different comparing to the ones which are located in the open flat area. The shadow causes two major problems： 1） glacial lakes which are covered by shadow completely result in underestimation of the number of glacial lakes; 2） glacial lakes which are partly iden- tified are considered to undervalue the area of glacial lakes. The aim of this study is to develop a new model, named Detection of Shadowed Glacial Lakes （DSGL） model, to identify glacial lakes under the shadow environment by using Advanced Space-borne Ther- mal Emission and Reflection Radiometer （ASTER） data in the Himalayas, Nepal. The DSGL model is based on integration of two dif- ferent modifications of NDWI, namely NDWls model and NDWIshe model. NDWI~ is defined as integration of the NDWI and slope analysis and used for detecting non-shadowed lake in the mountain area. The NDWIshe is proposed as a new methodology to overcome the weakness of NDWI~ on identifying shadowed lakes in highly elevated mountainous area such as the Himalayas. The first step of the NDWIshe is to enhance the data from ASTER 1B using the histogram equalization （HE） method, and its outcome product is named AS- TERho. We used the ASTERhe for calculating the NDWIhc and the NDWIshe. Integrated with terrain analysis using Digital Elevation Model （DEM） data, the NDWIshe can be used to identify the shadowed glacial lakes in the Himalayas. NDWIs value of 0.41 is used to identify the glacier lake （NDWI~ 〉 0.41）, and 0.3 of NDWIshe is used to identify the shadowed glacier lake （NDWIsho 〈 0.3）. The DSGL model was proved to be able to classify the glacial lakes more accurately, while the NDWI model had tendency to underestimate the presence of actual glacial lakes. Correct classification rate regarding the products from NDWI model and DSGL model were 57% and 99%, respectively. The results of this paper demonstrated that the DSGL model is promising to detect glacial lakes in the shadowed en- vironment at high mountains.

Danger of GLOFs in the Mountain Areas of Kazakhstan

The presentation describes the methods and shows the results of GLOFs＇ danger estimation in lie and Zhetysu Alatau ranges （Kazakhstan）. The catalogues of glacial lakes were made following the results of satellite images processing. The catalogue contains the data of 186 glacial lakes in lle Alatau and 577 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau. According to the bathymetric data of 35 glacial lakes the dependences of volume on lake＇s area for proglacial and moraine lakes were developed and lake＇s volumes were calculated. There are 32 lakes in Ile Alatau and 110 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau with water volume more than 100,000 m3. The most hazardous lakes have the following characteristics： 1） the lake volume exceeds 100,000 m3, （2） the lake is proglacial, （3） the dam is a young moraine with an ice core, （4） there are sites with the steep of more than 15° spreading for more than 500 m down the valley, and （5） there are important non-protected objects in the mudflows affected area. There are 14 the most hazardous glacial lakes with very high level of GLOF danger： 6 lakes in lie Alatau and 8 lakes in Zhetysu Alatau.

Interannual and Seasonal Changes in the Ice Cover of Glacial Lakes in the Snowy Mountains of Australia

Seasonal ice cover is uncommon on Australian lakes. In the Snowy Mountains, there are five natural, seasonally ice-covered lakes including Lake Cootapatamba, the highest lake in Australia. Blue Lake is the only one of the five lakes with sufficient volume to be relatively independent of short-term changes in ambient temperature, and therefore is the lake most likely to be of use in tracking long-term regional climate change. Ice forms on Blue Lake near the winter solstice and ice-breakup occurs from late September to November. Timing of breakup is related to spring temperature and, as such, mirrors the timing of general snow thaw in the mountains. The existence of historic photographs taken of the lake at about the time of ice breakup allows for the possibility of reconstructing a history of alpine climate and in 1905 ice breakup was probably as late as mid-December.

Outburst mechanism of Yindapu Glacial Lake in Tibet

At present,the mechanism research on glacial lake outburst mainly focuses on the ice quake and ice landslide,etc. To some glacial lakes,the seepage deformation is the dominant factor in outburst process. Taking the Yindapu Glacial Lake in Tibet as an example,using SEEP/W module of FEM software (GEO-STUDIO),the authors analyzed seepage stability of terminal moraine ridge dam. The leading role of seepage deformation in some glacial lake outburst mechanism is proposed and proved.

The Evolution of Water Property in the Mackenzie Bay Polynya During Antarctic Winter

Temperature and salinity profile data, collected by southern elephant seals equipped with autonomous CTD-Satellite Relay Data Loggers(CTD-SRDLs) during the Antarctic wintertime in 2011 and 2012, were used to study the evolution of water property and the resultant formation of the high density water in the Mackenzie Bay polynya(MBP) in front of the Amery Ice Shelf(AIS). In late March the upper 100–200 m layer is characterized by strong halocline and inversion thermocline. The mixed layer keeps deepening up to 250 m by mid-April with potential temperature remaining nearly the surface freezing point and sea surface salinity increasing from 34.00 to 34.21. From then on until mid-May, the whole water column stays isothermally at about^(-1).90℃while the surface salinity increases by a further 0.23. Hereafter the temperature increases while salinity decreases along with the increasing depth both by 0.1 order of magnitude vertically. The upper ocean heat content ranging from 120.5 to 2.9 MJ m^(-2), heat flux with the values of 9.8–287.0 W m^(-2) loss and the sea ice growth rates of 4.3–11.7 cm d^(-1) were estimated by using simple 1-D heat and salt budget methods. The MBP exists throughout the whole Antarctic winter(March to October) due to the air-sea-ice interaction, with an average size of about 5.0×10~3 km^2. It can be speculated that the decrease of the salinity of the upper ocean may occur after October each year. The recurring sea-ice production and the associated brine rejection process increase the salinity of the water column in the MBP progressively, resulting in, eventually, the formation of a large body of high density water.

Quantitative estimation presort of glacier lake outburst debris flow based on bucket effect

Glacier-lake outburst debris flow(GLODF),unique in high altitude mountains where modern glacier is active,is significantly large in its scale of time and space,and strong in power of destroy.Following the world's becoming warmer,GLODF frequency gradually rises.In late years,quantitative estimation methodologies has been put into use of mass GLODF estimations.To improve former methodologies,this article suggests that the glacier(or the massif)on the trailing edge and the moraine dam are the two major systems providing independent glacier lake outburst possibilities.Bucket Effect exists in GLODF issues.Therefore focusing on the relatively unstable one of the above two provides better accuracy in estimation on GLODF possibility.Thus,this article summarizes method of presort through specific GLODF evaluation.

Decadal glacial lake changes in the Koshi basin, central Himalaya, from 1977 to 2010, derived from Landsat satellite images

Changes in glacial lakes and the consequences of these changes, particularly on the development of water resources and management of glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) risk, has become one of the challenges in the sustainable development of high mountain areas in the context of global warming. This paper presents the findings of a study on the distribution of, and area changes in, glacial lakes in the Koshi basin in the central Himalayas.Data on the number of glacial lakes and their area was generated for the years 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat satellite images. According to the glacial lake inventory in 2010, there were a total of 2168 glacial lakes with a total area of 127.61 km^2 and average size of 0.06 km^2 in the Koshi basin. Of these,47% were moraine dammed lakes, 34.8% bedrock dammed lakes and 17.7% ice dammed lakes. The number of glacial lakes increased consistently over the study period from 1160 in 1977 to 2168 in 2010, an overall growth rate of 86.9%. The area of glacial lakes also increased from 94.44 km^2 in 1977 to 127.61 km^2 in 2010, a growth rate of 35.1%. A large number of glacial lakes in the inventory are small in size(≤ 0.1km^2). End moraine dammed lakes with area greater than 0.1 km^2 were selected to analyze the change characteristics of glacial lakes in the basin. The results show that, in 2010, there were 129 lakes greater than 0.1 km^2 in area; these lakes had a total area of 42.92km^2 in 1997, increasing to 63.28 km^2 in 2010. The distribution of lakes on the north side of the Himalayas(in China) was three times higher than on the south side of the Himalayas(in Nepal).Comparing the mean growth rate in area for the 33 year study period(1977-2010), the growth rate on the north side was found to be a little slower than that on the south side. A total of 42 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km^2 are rapidly growing between 1977 and 2010 in the Koshi basin, which need to be paid more attention to monitoring in the future and to identify how critical they are in terms of GLOF.

Palaeoclimatic evolution recorded by multidicipline in sediments in gahai lake, qaidam basin since late last deglacial

Based on the analyses of Loss-on-Ignition （LOI）, carbonate content and sediment characteristics, this paper reconstructs the climatic and environmental evolution of the Gahai lake area since the late Last Deglacial Period. The results cover the late Last Deglacial Period and the Holocene. The climate was very unstable and rather arid during the late Last Deglacial Period. The Holocene can be divided into three periods： the early Holocene （11360-8240 cal aB. P. ）, which was dry but unstable and featured rising temperatures, the mid-Holocene （8240-3200 cal aB. P. ）, which was warm and wet and the late Holocene （ since 3200 cal aBP）, which was cold and dry. Results also show a warm-wet event around 1500 cal aB. P.

冰湖

汽车盘旋于老爷岭的峰顶，前面右侧的树林闪出一个缺口，汽车就一头扎了进去。剧烈地抖动使里面的赵三觉得这辆破车就要翻过去了，头狠狠地撞在铁架子上，“咚”地一下，脑子里就乱糟糟地晕眩起来。

Glacier and Lake Changes across the Tibetan Plateau during the Past 50 Years of Climate Change

In this paper, recent glacier and lake changes research on the Tibetan Plateau was reviewed. Emphasis was placed on a discussion of the relationship between glacier shrinkage and lake change. In the context of global climate change, the glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau have general y retreated, while the lakes have general y expanded. First, the research on glacial terminal retreat, glacial area and volume variations across the Tibetan Plateau over the last few decades are reviewed and analyzed; the temporal-spatial change characteristics of the glaciers are discussed. Secondly, the lake area, volume and water level changes are reviewed and analyzed;the temporal-spatial change characteristics of the glaciers are discussed. The results indicate that the retreat speed in the outer edge of the Tibean Plateau was overal faster than that in the inland area. The areas and water levels of the lakes that are fed by glacial water increased. Final y, the limitations of the present studies and future work are discussed.

The state and fate of lake ice thickness in the Northern Hemisphere

Lake ice thickness(LIT)is important for regional hydroclimate systems,lake ecosystems,and human activities on the ice,and is thought to be highly susceptible to global warming.However,the spatiotemporal variability in LIT is largely unknown due to the difficulty in deriving in situ measurements and the lack of an effective remote sensing platform.Despite intensive development and applications of lake ice models driven by general circulation model output,evaluation of the global LIT is mostly based on assumed“ideal”lakes in each grid cell of the climate forcing data.A method for calculating the actual global LIT is therefore urgently needed.Here we use satellite altimetry to retrieve ice thickness for 16 large lakes in the Northern Hemisphere(Lake Baikal,Great Slave Lake,and others)with an accuracy of~0.2 m for almost three decades.We then develop a 1-D lake ice model driven primarily by remotely sensed data and cross-validated with the altimetric LIT to provide a robust means of estimating LIT for lakes larger than 50 km^(2)across the Northern Hemisphere.Mean LIT(annual maximum ice thickness)for 1313 simulated lakes and reservoirs covering~840,000 km^(2)for 2003–2018 is 0.63±0.02 m,corresponding to~485 Gt of water.LIT changes are projected for 2071–2099 under RCPs 2.6,6.0,and 8.5,showing that the mean LIT could decrease by~0.35 m under the worst concentration pathway and the associated lower ice road availability could have a significant impact on socio-economic activities.