我是我自己——谈《北亚风》的原创文化

由黑龙江省上市公司北亚实业(集团)股份有限公司主办的内部期刊《北亚风》，靠极鲜明的个性，清新淡雅的风格，从1995年3月15日创刊．到2004年2月，已走过100期的里程。翻开《北亚风》，你可以感觉到一股北亚特有的清风向你吹来，一个个北亚人向你讲述着《新制度，橘子红了》、《春暖北乳情》、《在岁月时间流过的地方》、《风雨中，我们奋勇前行》、《北亚集团入选上证50指数》……

Interdecadal variability of summer precipitation in the Three River Source Region: Influences of SST and zonal shifts of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet

Summer precipitation in the Three Rivers Source Region(TRSR)of China is vital for the headwaters of the Yellow,Yangtze,and Lancang rivers and exhibits significant interdecadal variability.This study investigates the influence of the East Asian westerly jet(EAWJ)on TRSR rainfall.A strong correlation is found between TRSR summer precipitation and the Jet Zonal Position Index(JZPI)of the EAWJ from 1961 to 2019(R=0.619,p<0.01).During periods when a positive JZPI indicates a westward shift in the EAWJ,enhanced water vapor anomalies,warmer air,and low-level convergence anomalies contribute to increased TRSR summer precipitation.Using empirical orthogonal function and regression analyses,this research identifies the influence of large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection(AEA)from the North Atlantic(NA).The interdecadal variability between the NA and central tropical Pacific(CTP)significantly affects TRSR precipitation.This influence is mediated through the AEA via a Rossby wave train extending eastward along the EAWJ,and another south of 45°N.Moreover,the NA–CTP Opposite Phase Index(OPI),which quantifies the difference between the summer mean sea surface temperatures of the NA and the CTP,is identified as a critical factor in modulating the strength of this teleconnection and influencing the zonal position of the EAWJ.

Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by CMIP3 Models

The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated,with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century.Most mod-els failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM),and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China,but provided reasonable results in Southwest (SW) and Northeast China (NE).The simula-tions produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai (YH) Basin area,although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general.One typical regional phe-nomenon,a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer,was completely missed by most models.The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated,and the ob-served geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models.Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV (Generalized Ex-treme Values) distributions.The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions,but reasonable values were calculated for the North China (NC) and NE regions.These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models.Nonetheless,models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.

Teleconnection between Winter Arctic Oscillation and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon in the Pre-Industry Simulation of a Coupled Climate Model

A 600-year pre-industrial simulation with Bergen Climate Model(BCM)Version 2 is used to investigate the linkage between winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the Southeast Asian summer monsoon(SEASM)on the inter-decadal timescale.The results indicate an in-phase relationship between the AO and SEASM with periods of approximately 16–32 and 60–80 years.During the positive phase of winter AO,an anomalous surface anti-cyclonic atmosphere circulation appears over North Pacific in winter.The corresponding anomalies in ocean circulation and surface heat flux,particularly the latent and sensible heat flux,resemble a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-like sea surface temperature(SST)pattern.The AO-associated PDO-like winter SST can persist into summer and can therefore lead to inter-decadal variability of summer monsoon rainfall in East and Southeast Asia.

FEATURES AND COMPARISONS OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL VARIATIONS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC MONSOON SUBSYSTEMS

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, Climate Diagnostics Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) results, and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST), have been utilized in this paper to study the quasi-biennial variations in Asia-Pacific monsoon subsystems and associated SST anomalies (SSTA) and wind anomalies. Four monsoon indices are computed from NCEP/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis to represent the South Asian monsoon (SAM), South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), Western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) and East Asian monsoon (EAM), respectively. The quasi-biennial periods are very significant in Asia-Pacific monsoons (as discovered by power spectrum analysis), and for SAM and EAM---with moderate effects by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)---the quasi-biennial periods are the most important factor. For SCSSM and WNPM (once again due to the effects of ENSO), the quasi-biennial periods are of secondary durations. There are obvious interdecadal variations in the quasi-biennial modes of the Asia-Pacific monsoon, so in the negative phase the biennial modes will not be significant or outstanding. The wind anomalies and SSTA associated with the biennial modes are very different in the SAM, WNPM and EAM regions. Since the WNPM and SCSSM are very similar in the biennial modes, they can be combined into one subsystem, called SCS/WNPM.

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THE SEASONAL MODALITY AND WEST EXTENDING OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH

Based on the 4-layer dbl wavelet packet and shannon entropy decomposition /reconstruction method and the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data set, the correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the Northern Hemisphere Pacific subtropical high seasonal modality/shift xvas studied and discussed, and a corresponding summer monsoon frequency-band energy criterion was defined and introduced for diagnosing the Pacific subtropical high’s modality/shift. A few new phenomena and correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the Northern Hemisphere Pacific subtropical high were also revealed and presented.

Factors Limiting the Forecast Skill of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Model

In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.

Projection of the summer northern East Asian low under global warming in CMIP5 models

The East Asian summer climate is modulated by a low-pressure system over northern East Asia（NEAL） and a subtropical high over the western North Pacific. Many studies have focused on the subtropical high, but little is known about NEAL, especially its change in the future under global warming scenarios. This study investigates the projected change in NEAL in the late twenty-first century, using the outputs of 20 models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project — specifically, their historical climate simulations（HIST） and future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5（RCP4.5） and 8.5（RCP8.5） scenarios. The results show that the models capture the NEAL well in HIST. The NEAL is weakened in the late twenty-first century under the two RCP scenarios, with a stronger weakening under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5.The weakened NEAL increases the geopotential height zonal gradient in the west and causes a southerly anomaly, which may bring more moisture and rainfall to northern East Asia.

Does the Asian monsoon modulate tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea?

To investigate whether the Asian monsoon influences tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS), TCs (including tropical storms and typhoons) over the SCS are analyzed using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center dataset from 1945 to 2009. Results show an increasing trend in the frequencies of TC-all (all TCs over the SCS) and TY-all (all typhoons over the SCS), due mainly to an increase in the number of TCs moving into the SCS after development elsewhere. Little change is seen in the number of TCs that form in the SCS. The results of wavelet analysis indicate that the frequency of typhoons (TY) shows a similar oscillation as that of TCs, i.e., a dominant periodicity of 8-16 years around the 1970s for all TC activity, except for TC-mov (TCs that moved into the SCS from the western North Pacific). To examine the relationship between typhoon activity and the summer monsoon, a correlation analysis was performed that considered typhoons, TCs, and five monsoon indexes. The analysis reveals statistically significant negative correlation between the strength of the Southwest Asian summer monsoon and typhoon activity over the SCS, which likely reflects the effect of the monsoon on TC formation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and subsequent movement into the SCS. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between TY-loc (typhoons that developed from TCs formed over the SCS) and the South China Sea summer monsoon and Southeast Asian summer monsoon.

Central Asian aridification during the late Eocene to early Miocene inferred from preliminary study of shallow marine-eolian sedimentary rocks from northeastern Tajik Basin

The tempo-spatial development of the Cenozoic Asian aridification across the Eocene-Oligocene and its controlling factors are important scientific topics in Earth Sciences, which are pertinent to regional and global tectonic and climatic events. However, sedimentary rocks preserving the record of aridification during this time from central Asia(ACA) are rare. Here we present a preliminary analysis of sedimentary facies of the lower Paleogene in the northeastern Tajik Basin, which reveals that: the lower part of the studied section is dominated by shallow marine deposits of the Paratethys, the middle part is typical of alternations of eolian dune and fluvial deposits, the upper part is represented by eolian loess-sandy loess(L&SL) like facies, and the top exhibits alternations of fluvial-lacustrine and loess like facies. Based on a chronological framework derived from preliminary magnetostratigraphy, published U-Pb dating of a volcanic ash, and regional litho-stratigraphic correlations, we determine that eolian and L&SL facies accumulated in the northeastern Tajik Basin during the Late Eocene and through most of the Oligocene. These sedimentary units indicate that semi-arid to arid environments of ACA had developed at least since the late Eocene. This initial aridification is closely linked to the westward retreat of the Paratethys that was likely driven by a combination of tectonic activity and sea level changes.

A climatological northern boundary index for the East Asian summer monsoon and its interannual variability

A long-term perspective on the spatial variation of the northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and the related physical mechanisms is important for understanding past climate change in Asia and for predicting future changes. However, most of the meteorological definitions of the EASM northern boundary do not correspond well to the actual geographical environment, which is problematic for paleoclimatic research. Here, we use monthly CMAP and GPCP precipitation data to define a new EASM northern boundary index by using the concept of the global monsoon, which is readily applicable to paleoclimatic research. The results show that the distribution of the 2 mm day^(-1) precipitation isoline(i.e., 300 mm precipitation)has a good relationship with the spatial distribution of modern land cover types, the transitional climate zone and the potential natural vegetation types, in China. The locations of the precipitation isolines also correspond well to the locations of major shifts in wind direction. These results suggest that the 2 mm day^(-1) isoline has a clear physical significance since the climatic, ecological,and geographical boundary can be used as the northern boundary index of the EASM(which we call the climatological northern boundary index). The index depicts the northeast-southwest orientation of the climatological(1981-2010) EASM northern boundary, along the eastern part of the Qilian Mountains-southern foothills of the Helan Mountains-Daqing Mountains-western margin of the Greater Khingan Range, from west to east across Northwest and Northeast China. The interannual change of the EASM northern boundary from 1980 to 2015 covers the central part of Gansu, the northern part of Ningxia, the eastern part of Inner Mongolia and the northeastern region in China. It can extend northward to the border between China and Mongolia and retreat southward to Shangdong-central Henan. There is a 200-700 km fluctuation range of the interannual EASM northern boundaries around the locations of the climatological northern boundary. In addition, the spatial variation of the interannual EASM northern boundaries gradually increases from west to east, whereas the trend of north-south fluctuations maintains a roughly consistent location in different regions.

Holocene vegetational and climatic variation in westerly-dominated areas of Central Asia inferred from the Sayram Lake in northern Xinjiang,China

Changes in the vegetation and climate of the westerly-dominated areas in Central Asia during the Holocene were interpreted using pollen-assemblages and charcoal data from a 300-cm-long sediment core of the Sayram Lake,northern Xinjiang.Accele-rator Mass Spectrometry(AMS) radiocarbon dating methods were applied to bulk organic matter of the samples.Artemisia spp./Chenopodiaceae ratios and results from principal component analysis were used to infer that the lake basin was dominated by desert vegetation before ca.9.6 cal.ka BP,which suggests a warm and dry climate in the early Holocene.Desert steppe/steppe expanded during 9.6-5.5 cal.ka BP,indicating a remarkable increase both in the precipitation and temperature during the mid-Holocene.Desert vegetation dominated between 6.5 and 5.5 cal.ka BP,marking an extreme warmer and drier interval.The steppe/meadow steppe recovered,and temperatures decreased from 5.5 cal.ka BP in the late Holocene,as indicated by the increased abundance of Artemisia and the development of meadows.Holocene temperatures and moisture variations in the Sayram Lake areas were similar to those of adjacent areas.This consistency implies that solar radiation was the main driving factor for regional temperature changes,and that the effect of temperature variations was significant on regional changes in humidity.The evolution of climate and environment in the Sayram Lake areas,which were characterized as dry in the early Holocene and relatively humid in the middle-late Holocene,are clearly different from those in monsoonal areas.Dry conditions in the early Holocene in the Sayram Lake areas were closely related to decreased water vapor advection.These conditions were a result of reduced westerly wind speeds and less evaporation upstream,which in turn were caused by seasonal changes in solar radiation superimposed by strong evaporation following warming and drying local climate.

East Asian-North Indian Ocean thermal contrast and variation in the East Asian summer monsoon for the past 2650 years

Using observational data, the East Asian-North Indian Ocean index （]EANI）, which reflects a tropospheric thermal contrast, is found to correlate well with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and associated rainfall over eastern China. Corresponding to a higher （lower） IEANI, the EASM at mid-latitudes is stronger （weaker）, and there is more （less） rainfall in North China and less （more） rainfall near the Yangtze River valley. To investigate long-term variation in the EASM, we reconstructed the BC 665AD 1985 IEANI based on reconstructed temperatures in Beijing and Tasmania, Australia. Over the past 2000 years, the reconstructed/EANI generally represents centennial-scale variations in the EASM and rainfall over eastem China. The correlation pattern between the reconstructed IEANI and rainfall over eastern China is similar to modem observations, implying that the correlation feature at centennial scales also occurred over the past 2000 years. With respect to longer-scale （several hundreds to one thousand years） IEANI variations and their correlations with rainfall, further verifications should be performed using various paleoclimatic proxy data.