谢肇淛笔记三种考论

谢肇的笔记著作中包涵着很丰富的明代社会生活史料,也多方面地体现了谢肇本人的文学思想与史学理念,目前对这一领域的研究尚比较薄弱,本论文在梳理笔记现存各种版本情况的基础上,考证其刊刻前后及版本异同,进而考察三种笔记之间的关系。

Improvement of the global prediction system of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)and autoregressive moving average(ARMA)model in a hybrid approach

In 2020,the COVID-19 pandemic spreads rapidly around the world.To accurately predict the number of daily new cases in each country,Lanzhou University has established the Global Prediction System of the COVID-19 Pandemic(GPCP).In this article,the authors use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)model and autoregressive moving average(ARMA)model to improve the prediction results of GPCP.In addition,the authors also conduct direct predictions for those countries with a small number of confirmed cases or are in the early stage of the disease,whose development trends of the pandemic do not fully comply with the law of infectious diseases and cannot be predicted by the GPCP model.Judging from the results,the absolute values of the relative errors of predictions in countries such as Cuba have been reduced significantly and their prediction trends are closer to the real situations through the method mentioned above to revise the prediction results out of GPCP.For countries such as El Salvador with a small number of cases,the absolute values of the relative errors of prediction become smaller.Therefore,this article concludes that this method is more effective for improving prediction results and direct prediction.

A Sample of Semi-Actuated Traffic Control versus Fixed-Time Traffic Control

Fixed-time control of traffic signals pursues the regulation of phases based on historical data of traffic demand, in this way, neglecting of the random arrival rates of traffic flow on different intersection streams causes increasing of the stops and delays and fuel consumption at the same time. Coordinated semi-actuated control due to ability to respond traffic demands on both main and secondary directions, based on road detector registration saves the coordinated features, serving the unused time to the main road, while the secondary clears early. In this paper, the authors analyzed and explained comparatively the results of LOS （level of service） parameters of the current state of control （fixed-time） with the proposed control （semi-actuated coordinated） of the artery of length 2,348 km consisted of four signalized T intersections. Highway Capacity Manual and Synchro/Sim Traffic software are used for analysis and optimization of parameters in this paper.

STUDY OF A COMPREHENSIVE MONITORING INDEX FOR TWO TYPES OF ENSO EVENTS

Some recent studies presented two existing types of ENSO events, one is the Eastern-Pacific(EP) type and the other the Central-Pacific(CP) type. This study examined the monitoring ability of several current operational ENSO indices. The results indicated that a single index could not distinguish the EP and CP in the historical ENSO events during 1950-2009. The Nio 3 index may only be suitable for monitoring the EP-type ENSO, while the Nio 4 index works only for the CP-type ENSO. In order to capture the occurrence of ENSO events and distinguish the type, we considered a new monitoring index group using Nio 3 and Nio 4 indices. Further analysis confirmed that this index group can monitor different types of historical ENSO events with different spatial distribution of sea surface temperature. It has a good performance in determining the characteristics of the ENSO events, including peak intensity, onset,decay, and mature phase.

Generalized Square Conservative Multistep Finite Difference Scheme Incorporating Historical Observations

In this paper,a multistep finite difference scheme has been proposed,whose coefficients are determined taking into consideration compatibility and generalized quadratic conservation,as well as incorporating historical observation data.The schemes have three advantages:high-order accuracy in time,generalized square conservation,and smart use of historical observations.Numerical tests based on the one-dimensional linear advection equations suggest that reasonable consideration of accuracy,square conservation,and inclusion of historical observations is critical for good performance of a finite difference scheme.

Development of Building Maintenance System for Monitoring Repair and Replacement Histories of Public Facilities

The Korea Water Resources Corporation （K-Water） has encountered four problems during the management of water resources of approximately 1,300 buildings spread throughout the country-degradation, budget constraints, lack of standards, and lack of planning. In this study, we have developed a mechanism for collecting, maintaining, and analyzing ground data for repair and replacement works. Our BMS （building maintenance system） uses the recorded repair and replacement work histories and calculates the life cycle costs of the related items. Further, it enables the performance of repair and replacement tasks through an integrated approach aimed at preventive maintenance. In this manner, the BMS is expected to maximize the efficiency of the formulation of prevention and maintenance work plans, monitoring of work histories, predictions of future tasks from the analyses of repair and replacement histories, and performance of LCC （life cycle cost） calculations. Reliable maintenance of national properties can thus be achieved by using the BMS, which promotes reasonable and efficient repair and replacement activities.

Earth Observations in China and the World: History and Development in 50 Years

Remote sensing, which came into being at the first International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE) 50 years ago, has enabled people to obtain objecive and realistic spatial and temporal information through the application of Earth observation technologies and analyze and understand the macro-level changes of the Earth system from a spaial view. The technology of Earth observaion from space has incomparable advantages in the study of the Earth. This aricle introduces the 50-year development of Earth observaion in the world and the 30-year development of Earth observaion in China and reflects on the building of China's Earth observaion system.

Onsite Testing of Ammonium Oxalate Treatment Applied to Historical Salt-Infested Limestone

Ammonium oxalate treatment, previously extensively studied on limestone in the laboratory, was applied to powdering historical stonework （limestone） situated on the shoreline in the Mediterranean Island of Malta. This paper presents the results obtained from onsite testing that aimed at evaluating the treatment in terms of its aesthetic performance, the depth of treatment, the mechanical properties of the consolidated stone and the influence on water transport. To this end, the testing program included colorimetry, DRMS （drilling resistance measurement system） and water absorption through the contact sponge method. This study is Part One of the final phase of a wider research program which included two previous phases progressing from treating this same very porous stone type in a laboratory-based controlled environment to uncontrolled site conditions, seeking to quantify this treatment＇s effectiveness in the field. Results showed that onsite consolidation was achieved and that although some changes in colour and water absorption were brought about by the treatment, these were within acceptable tolerance limits. Besides carrying out these treatments and evaluations directly on the coast, this study anticipates further studies which will look at rural and urban sites where the types and concentrations of salts are expected to be different.

Photogrammetry - Remote Sensing on the Study of Monuments and Historical Centers： The Effect of Hazards -The Case of Delphi Historical Center

Monuments and historical centers, because of their particular importance, are studied in multiple ways. The study concerns different scientific disciplines and technology. Photogrammetry and remote sensing contribute essentially to this study, because of the valuable qualitative and quantitative information they offer. In this paper we search through the possibilities of very high resolution satellite imagery on historical centers study, referring to Delphi historical center. The study concerns image enhancement techniques and visual interpretation of Ikonos satellite imagery. Image enhancement techniques facilitate visual interpretation, detection and recognition, of the physiognomy and spatial arrangement of Delphi historical center and offer information about physical and architectural features in the wide area of the historical center.

The review and prospect of neutron radiography in China

Neutron radiography is one of radiography non-destructive testing.It is a valuable complementary of X and γ rays radiography.The present status and history of neutron radiography in China was described briefly,facilities of neutron radiography and their development were introduced in this paper.

Test Calibration of the Paleoclimatic Proxy Data with Chinese Historical Records

The calibration of paleoclimate proxies is one of the key problems in the study of paleoclimate at present. Historical documentary records of climate are suitable for calibration on dating and the climatic implication of the proxy data in a climatological sense. A test calibration on correcting the Delingha tree ring precipitation series using Chinese historical documentary records shows that among the 44 extreme dry cases in 1401 1950 AD, 42 cases （or 95.5%） are believable. Thus the long series of Delingha rings-denoted precipitation is highly reliable. Another test to validate the monsoon intensity proxy data based on the Zhanjiang Huguangyan sediments using historical records indicates that the years of Lake Maar Ti content series-designated winter monsoon intensities are entirely opposite to historical documents- depicted years of harsh winters in 800-900 AD. As a result, serious doubt is raised about the climatic implication of this paleo-monsoon proxy series.

Projection and Historical Analysis of Hydrological Circulation in Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

Based on the comparison between several model outputs from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5） and the satellite rainfall mapping data of GSMaP （global satellite mapping of precipitation）, This paper selected MIROC4h as a future projection of rainfall in the Sittaung River basin, Myanmar, with the fine spatial resolution of 0.5°. At first, MIROC4h projection towards 2035 was corrected by using the error trend （GSMaP-MIROC4h） for nine years over-rapping of both outputs from 2006 to 2014. Assuming the seasonal autoregressive processes, future error trend at each grid point was estimated by the time series forecast of SARMAP processes using the nine years training data. Then future projection correction was done by M1ROC4h output plus error trend at each grid point to obtain the corrected MIROC4h precipitation. As a historical analysis, using the corrected precipitation in the Sittaung River basin and observed river discharge at the outlet of the river, the hydrological model （HSPF （Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran）） calibration was carried out with consideration of the water utilization data for darn/reservoir and irrigation. As a projection analysis, future simulation of hourly discharge at the outlet of Sittaung River from 2015 to 2035 was conducted by using the corrected MIROC4h precipitation. The results of projection analysis show that high risks of flood will appear in 2023 and 2028 and the risks of draught will be expected in 2019-2021.

Assimilating Amounts of Precipitation Using a New Four-Dimensional Variational Method

Observations of accumulated precipitation are extremely valuable for effectively improving rainfall analysis and forecast. It is, however, difficult to use such observations directly through sequential assimilation methods, such as three-dimensional variational data assimilation or an Ensemble Kalman Filter. In this study, the authors illustrate a new approach that makes effective use of precipitation data to improve rainfall forecast. The new method directly obtains an optimal solution in a reduced space by fitting observations with historical time series generated by the model; it also avoids the implementation of tangent linear model and its adjoint. A lot of historical samples are produced as the ensemble of precipitation observations with the fully nonlinear forecast model. The results show that the new approach is capable of extracting information from precipitation observations to improve the analysis and forecast. This method provides comparable performance with the standard fourdimensional variational data assimilation at a much lower computational cost.

Detecting and mapping annual newly-burned plots(NBP) of swiddening using historical Landsat data in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia(MMSEA) during 1988–2016

Swidden agriculture is by far the dominant land use system in the uplands of Southeast Asia （SEA）, as well as other tropical regions, which plays an important role in the implementation of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation （REDD） of United Nations. To our knowledge, the long-term inter-annual area of newly burned plots （NBP） of swidden agriculture in mainland Southeast Asia is still not available, let alone in the whole tropics. With the strengthening regional geo-economic cooperation in SEA, swidden agriculture has experienced and/or is still experiencing extensive and drastic transformations into other diverse market-oriented land use types since the 1990s. In this study, high-level surface reflectance products of Landsat 4151718 family sensors including Thematic Mapper （TM）, Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus （ETM＋） and Operational Land Imager （OLI） acquired in March, April and May of each year between 1988 and 2016 were firstly utilized to detect and monitor the extent and area of NBP of swidden agriculture with multiple thresholds of four commonly-used vegetation indices, namely the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI）, Normalized Difference Moisture Index （NDMI）, Normalized Burn Ratio （NBR） and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index （SAVI）, in combination with local phenological features of swid- dening and topographical data. The results showed that： （1） an annual average of 6.08×104 km2 of NBP of swidden agriculture, or 3.15% of the total land area of MSEA, were estimated in the past nearly three decades. （2） Annual NBP were primarily distributed in four major geomorphic units including the Central Range of Hills, Northern Mountainous Region, West- ern Myanmar Hills, and Annamite Chain. （3） A decadal average analysis indicated that the NBP of swidden agriculture opened year by year declined as a whole, especially after 2010, merely with an average of 5.23×104 km2. （4） The top ten provincial administrative units in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam, which consistently accounted for over 90% of the newly opened swiddens of each country, showed distinct fluctuations in usingslash-and-burn practices in the last decades. The Landsat-based （30 m） reconstructed 29-year longitudinal updated maps （including extent and area） of the NBP of swidden agri- culture may contribute to REDD and local livelihood related studies in Continental Southeast Asia. Our study further demonstrated that the multiple vegetative indices thresholds approach holds great potential in detecting swidden agriculture in tropical mountainous regions.

Study on seismic damage of SRHSC frame columns

The damage evolution in steel reinforced high strength concrete(SRHSC) frame columns was studied based on the test results of cyclic reversed loading experiment of 12 frame column specimens with various axial compression rations,stirrups ratios,steel rations and loading histories.The variation law of the ultimate bearing capacity,ultimate deformation and ultimate hysteretic energy dissipation of specimens under different loading protocols was obtained.The seismic damage characteristics,as well as strength and stiffness degradation,of SRHSC frame columns were analyzed.Based on the analysis of the nonlinear double parameters combination of deformation and energy,a damage model that can well reflect the mechanical characteristics of members subjected to a horizontal earthquake action was established by considering the effects of the number of the loading cycles on the ultimate resistance capacity(ultimate deformation and ultimate energy dissipation capacity) of members,and the loading history on damage,etc.According to the test results,the related parameters of the damage model were proposed.Finally,the damage model proposed was validated by the test results.Results indicated that the proposed damage model is theoretically more reasonable and can accurately describe the seismic damage evolution of the SRHSC frame columns.The results also can be used as a new theoretic reference for the establishment of damage-based earthquake-resistant design method of SRHSC members.