画中有话,艺中有意——从《太平洋报》探析陈师曾与丰子恺漫画之间的传承关系

画中有话,从绘画技法角度,向读者诉说陈师曾与丰子恺漫画之间的传承关系;艺中有意,丰子恺的艺术人生中充斥着诗意、童忆、佛理等人生真谛,这种人生观不仅仅是受到恩师李叔同以身教化所影响,另一个不为人知或被极大忽视的因素便是受到陈师曾的影响。所以,丰子恺漫画卓越的艺术成就完全离不开陈师曾和李叔同两位大师的指导,这亦是丰子恺漫画分别对两位导师不同内容和不同方式的传承。立足于《太平洋报·文艺集》,从构图、笔触、留白、边框、题材、人物塑造、诗意和标题八个层面,将陈师曾漫画与丰子恺漫画进行比较,以窥测陈师曾漫画与丰子恺漫画之间的传承关系。

以阳正阴,阴阳和合——《太平洋报》女性广告视野下的女性形象研究

民国元年,我国期刊出版事业开始步入一个百家争鸣的阶段,当时的出版数量、种类和质量皆有长足的进步。文章对《太平洋报》之女性广告进行史料分析,以个案分析、计量分析作为研究方法,以女性广告设计者、报刊编辑者、女学创办者的男性视角,从女性广告视野下探讨民国初期女性的社会形象,以期窥知当时女性之教育状况和社会地位。

李叔同漫画实践及对中国近代漫画的贡献

在中国近代漫画史上,关于李叔同"漫画"研究的课题中,提到最多的是他在《太平洋报》上的美术广告画,其他方面却少有涉及,也未见较为全面分析论述李叔同的漫画创作的论著。其实,李叔同任职《太平洋报》画报主编时,就征集讽刺画,刊登过陈师曾的文人漫画作品,这些在丰子恺的文集中都有所反映。故重新认识李叔同在漫画宣传、推广以及创作实践方面的作为,可理清李叔同与中国近现代漫画发展以及近现代漫画代表人物陈师曾、丰子恺的承继关系,并探求他对中国近代漫画的影响与贡献。

OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC(INCLUDING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA)

Based on the tropical cyclone data from the Central Meteorological Observatory of China, Japan Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） during the period of 2004 to 2009, three consensus methods are used in tropical cyclone （TC） track forecasts. Operational consensus results show that the objective forecasts of ECMWF help to improve consensus skill by 2%, 3%-5% and 3%-5%, decrease track bias by 2.5 kin, 6-9 km and 10-12 km for the 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts respectively over the years of 2007 to 2009. Analysis also indicates that consensus forecasts hold positive skills relative to each member. The multivariate regression composite is a method that shows relatively low skill, while the methods of arithmetic averaging and composite （in which the weighting coefficient is the reciprocal square of mean error of members） have almost comparable skills among members. Consensus forecast for a lead time of 96 h has negative skill relative to the ECMWF objective forecast.

Interannual variations of North Equatorial Current transport in the Pacific Ocean during two types of El Ni?o

Interannual variations of Pacific North Equatorial Current （NEC） transport during eastern- Pacific E1 Nifios （EP-EI Nifios） and central-Pacific E1 Nifios （CP-E1 Nifios） are investigated by composite analysis with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Ocean Analysis/Reanalysis System 3. During EP-E1 Nifio, NEC transport shows significant positive anomalies from the developing to decay phases, with the largest anomalies around the mature phase. During CP-EI Nifio, however, the NEC transport only shows positive anomalies before the mature phase, with much weaker anomalies than those during EP-El Nifio. The NEC transport variations are strongly associated with variations of the tropical gyre and wind forcing in the tropical North Pacific. During EP-E1 Nifio, strong westerly wind anomalies and positive wind stress curl anomalies in the tropical North Pacific induce local upward Ekman pumping and westward-propagating upwelling Rossby waves in the ocean, lowering the sea surface height and generating a cyclonic gyre anomaly in the western tropical Pacific. During CP-E1 Nifio, however, strength of the wind and associated Ekman pumping velocity are very weak. Negative sea surface height and cyclonic flow anomalies are slightly north of those during EP El Nino.

Occurrences of Wintertime Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under the Background of Global Warming

Using tropical cyclone （TC） observations over a 58-yr period （1949-2006） from the China Meteorological Administration, the 40-year ECMWF Reanalysis （ERA-40）, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, and the Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature （HadISST） datasets, the authors have examined the behaviors of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the western north Pacific （WNP） in boreal winter （November-December-January-February）. The results demonstrate that the occurrences of wintertime TCs, including super typhoons, have decreased over the 58 years. More TCs are found to move westward than northeastward, and the annual total number of parabolic-track-type TCs is found to be decreasing. It is shown that negative sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） related to La Nifia events in the equatorial central Pacific facilitate more TC genesis in the WNP region. Large-scale anomalous cyclonic circulations in the tropical WNP in the lower troposphere are observed to be favorable for cyclogenesis in this area. On the contrary, the positive SSTAs and anomalous anticyclonic circulations that related to E1 Nifio events responsible for fewer TC genesis. Under the background of global warming, the western Pacific subtropical high tends to intensify and to expand more westward in the WNP, and the SSTAs display an increasing trend in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific. These climate trends of both atmospheric circulation and SSTAs affect wintertime TCs, inducing fewer TC occurrences and causing more TCs to move westward.

“新剧俱进会”始末考

在新剧(文明戏)的发展过程中,为谋求新剧界的团结和更大发展,新剧界于1914年3月31日组织成立新剧公会,并于1914年5月5日举办了"六大剧团联合演剧"。然而,早于新剧公会成立约两年前的1912年7月,作为新剧公会的前身,新剧界曾组织"新剧俱进会"这一事实却鲜为人知。笔者发现了详细记录俱进会成立及其活动经过的重要史料,即从1912年7月1日至同年9月20日连载于《太平洋报》中的专栏《新剧俱进会消息》。依据这份重要的史料,本文探讨了新剧俱进会成立和解散的经过、活动内容及其存在意义,并进一步分析了1912年前后新剧的发展状况。

Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability barrier” for El Nio events

Most ocean-atmosphere coupled models have difficulty in predicting the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） when starting from the boreal spring season. However, the cause of this spring predictability barrier （SPB） phenomenon remains elusive. We investigated the spatial characteristics of optimal initial errors that cause a significant SPB for E1 Nifio events by using the monthly mean data of the pre-industrial （PI） control runs from several models in CMIP5 experiments. The results indicated that the SPB-related optimal initial errors often present an SST pattern with positive errors in the central-eastern equatorial Pa- cific, and a subsurface temperature pattern with positive errors in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and nega- tive errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The SPB-related optimal initial errors exhibit a typical La Ni- fia-like evolving mode, ultimately causing a large but negative prediction error of the Nifio-3.4 SST anomalies for El Nifio events. The negative prediction errors were found to originate from the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific and then grow to be large in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is therefore reasonable to suggest that the E1 Nifio predictions may be most sensitive to the initial errors of temperature in the subsurface layers of the western equatorial Pacific and the Nifio-3.4 region, thus possibly representing sensitive areas for adaptive observation. That is, if additional observations were to be preferentially deployed in these two regions, it might be possible to avoid large prediction errors for E1 Nifio and generate a better forecast than one based on additional observations targeted elsewhere. Moreover, we also confirmed that the SPB-related optimal initial errors bear a strong resemblance to the optimal precursory disturbance for E1 Nifio and La Nifia events. This indicated that im- provement of the observation network by additional observations in the identified sensitive areas would also be helpful in de- tecting the signals provided by the precursory disturbance, which may greatly improve the ENSO prediction skill.