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身体是不合逻辑的——评希拉里·曼特尔的《气绝》 被引量:1
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作者 赵文 《现代传记研究》 2022年第1期117-129,共13页
《气绝》是希拉里·曼特尔人到中年、回首往事时所作的自传。作品涵盖了曼特尔的童年生活、家庭背景、学习经历以及与疾病斗争的痛苦岁月。本文以《气绝》为研究文本,从身体视角切入,将加拉格尔的身体现象学作为依托,分析曼特尔童... 《气绝》是希拉里·曼特尔人到中年、回首往事时所作的自传。作品涵盖了曼特尔的童年生活、家庭背景、学习经历以及与疾病斗争的痛苦岁月。本文以《气绝》为研究文本,从身体视角切入,将加拉格尔的身体现象学作为依托,分析曼特尔童年时期对于性别身体的误认以及因疾病导致的身体图式的异常和身体意象的破损。面对不稳定的物质性身体带来的身份危机,曼特尔转向了精神性努力,通过文学写作来实现自我确立。这在无形中为陷于身份危机中的疾病个体提供了一条自我疗救之道。 展开更多
关键词 希拉里·曼特尔 《气绝》 性别身体 身体图式 身体意象
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A Mathematical Method for Determination of Absolute Adsorption from Experimental Isotherms of Supercritical Gases 被引量:11
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作者 周理 周亚平 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2001年第1期110-115,共6页
A mathematical method was proposed for the determination of absolute adsorption from experimental isotherms. The method is based on the numerical equality of the absolute and the excess adsorption when either the gas ... A mathematical method was proposed for the determination of absolute adsorption from experimental isotherms. The method is based on the numerical equality of the absolute and the excess adsorption when either the gas phase density or the amount adsorbed is not quite considerable. The initial part of the experimentalisotherms, which represents the absolute adsorption, became linear with some mathematical manipulations. The linear isotherms were reliably formulated. As consequence, either the volume or the density of the supercritical adsorbate could be determined by a non-empirical way. This method was illustrated by the adsorption data of supercritical hydrogen and methane on a superactivated carbon in large ranges of temperature and pressure. 展开更多
关键词 supercritical adsorption absolute adsorption physical state of adsorbate physisorption equilibrium
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Predicting the Dielectric Strength of c-C_4F_8 and SF_6 Gas Mixtures by Monte Carlo Method 被引量:3
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作者 吴变桃 肖登明 《Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science)》 EI 2007年第1期121-124,共4页
An improved Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the motion of electrons in c-C4F8 and SF6 gas mixtures for pulsed townsend discharge. The electron swarm parameters such as effective ionization coefficient, -↑α a... An improved Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the motion of electrons in c-C4F8 and SF6 gas mixtures for pulsed townsend discharge. The electron swarm parameters such as effective ionization coefficient, -↑α and drift velocity over the E/N range from 280~700 Td(1Td=10^-21 V·m^2) were calculated by employing a set of cross sections available in literature. From the variation cure of -↑α with SF6 partial pressure p, the limiting field (E/N)lim of gas mixture at different gas content was determined. It is found that the limiting field of c-C4F8 and SF6 gas mixture is higher than that of pure SF6 at any SF6 mixture ratio. Simulation results show excellent agreement with experiment data available in previous literature. 展开更多
关键词 c-C4F8 and SF6 gas mixture Monte Carlo limiting field dielectric strength
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Investigation of Atmospheric Plasma Discharge and Its Application to Surface Modification of Textile Materials
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作者 唐晓亮 邱高 +4 位作者 冯贤平 闫永辉 施芸城 严治仁 王良 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2005年第2期120-125,共6页
In this paper, an improved quasi-stable atmospheric pressure dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma source is achieved after carefully controlled discharge voltage and current, discharge power, working gas, treat... In this paper, an improved quasi-stable atmospheric pressure dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma source is achieved after carefully controlled discharge voltage and current, discharge power, working gas, treatment period, and gap between the electrodes. This plasma source has been used to modify the surface of Polybutylene Terephthalate (PBT) melt-blown nonwovens and Polyester (PET) fabrics, and the various influences on surface modification and the aging effect of treated polymeric materials have been systematically investigated. In addition, the method of spectrum analysis is also used for diagnosing plasma paramneters such as electron temperature. Experimental results indicate that both the wettablity and permeation of treated PBT melt-blown nonwovens and dyeing ability of treated PET fabrics are certainly improved. 展开更多
关键词 dielectric barrier discharge plasma diagnostics atmospheric pressure surface modification textile material
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Development of a New-type Sweating Manikin System
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作者 李俊 王云仪 +2 位作者 张渭源 陈益松 李学东 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2006年第2期31-33,共3页
A new type of sweating manikin system has been developed to evaluate thermal insulation and moisture evaporative resistance of clothing, which is reliable, easy control and low cost. In this paper the manikin system w... A new type of sweating manikin system has been developed to evaluate thermal insulation and moisture evaporative resistance of clothing, which is reliable, easy control and low cost. In this paper the manikin system was reported and discussed from the aspects of system construction, work principles, figure formation, simulated sweating system, and technical properties. 展开更多
关键词 sweating manikin thermal insulation moisture permeability index (im) clothing.
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Extreme air pollution events:Modeling and prediction
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作者 周松梅 邓启红 刘蔚巍 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第6期1668-1672,共5页
In order to get prepared for the coming extreme pollution events and minimize their harmful impacts, the first and most important step is to predict their possible intensity in the future. Firstly, the generalized Par... In order to get prepared for the coming extreme pollution events and minimize their harmful impacts, the first and most important step is to predict their possible intensity in the future. Firstly, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) in extreme value theory was used to fit the extreme pollution concentrations of three main pollutants: PM10, NO2 and SO:, from 2005 to 2010 in Changsha, China. Secondly, the prediction results were compared with actual data by a scatter plot. Four statistical indicators: EMA (mean absolute error), ERMS (root mean square error), IA (index of agreement) and R2 (coefficient of determination) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit as well. Thirdly, the return levels corresponding to different return periods were calculated by the fitted distributions. The fitting results show that the distribution of PM10 and SO2 belongs to exponential distribution with a short tail while that of the NOe belongs to beta distribution with a bounded tail. The scatter plot and four statistical indicators suggest that GPD agrees well with the actual data. Therefore, the fitted distribution is reliable to predict the return levels corresponding to different return periods. The predicted return levels suggest that the intensity of coming pollution events for PM10 and SO2 will be even worse in the future, which means people have to get enough preparation for them. 展开更多
关键词 extreme pollution event generalized Pareto distribution return level return period
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Pressure Rise in Electrical Installations due to Internal Arcing in CO2 as Insulating Gas
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作者 Sebastian Wetzeler Yann Cressault +1 位作者 Gerhard Johannes Pietsch Loic Hermette 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2015年第6期548-555,共8页
Internal arcs cause a rapid increase in pressure in electrical installations. The type of insulation gas has influence on pressure development. Typically SF6 is used incompact metal-clad switchgear, however, it has a ... Internal arcs cause a rapid increase in pressure in electrical installations. The type of insulation gas has influence on pressure development. Typically SF6 is used incompact metal-clad switchgear, however, it has a high global warming potential. Because of this, the replacement of SF6 by alternative gases such as CO2 is under discussion. The pressure developments in a closed vessel filled with air, SF6 and CO2 are measured and compared. During internal arcing in gas-insulated switchgear, overpressure causes a rupture of a burst plate and hot gas escapes into the surrounding room mixing with air. In order to predict the pressure development in electrical installations reliably, the portion of energy causing pressure rise, arc voltage as well as reliable gas data i.e., thermodynamic and transport properties, must be known in a wide range of pressure and temperature. These data are up to now not available for CO2/air mixtures. The thermodynamic properties are directly calculated from the number densities, internal partition functions and enthalpies of formation. The transport coefficients are deduced using the Chapman-Enskog method. Comparing measured and calculated pressure developments in a test arrangement demonstrates the quality of the calculation approach. 展开更多
关键词 Pressure calculations internal arcing carbon dioxide.
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On the relationship between tropical cyclone size and environmental helicity in the South China Sea 被引量:1
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作者 Min Li Kekuan Chu +1 位作者 Jian-Feng Gu Zhe-Min Tan 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2022年第4期32-37,共6页
In this study,the impact of environmental factors on tropical cyclone(TC)outer-core size was investigated for both migrating and local TCs in the South China Sea during the period 2001–2019.Among all the thermodynami... In this study,the impact of environmental factors on tropical cyclone(TC)outer-core size was investigated for both migrating and local TCs in the South China Sea during the period 2001–2019.Among all the thermodynamic and dynamic factors,the low-level environmental helicity showed the strongest positive correlation with TC outer-core size.Large helicity favors the development and organization of convection in TCs,and the corresponding strong inflow and large angular momentum fluxes into the system is beneficial for the maintenance and enlargement of TC outer-core size.Besides,the asymmetric distribution of helicity may account for the asymmetry of TC outer-core size.Therefore,the environmental helicity,as an integrated dynamic factor,can provide an alternative view on TC outer-core size. 展开更多
关键词 Tropical cyclone Outer-core size HELICITY Angular momentum
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Particle Movement Using Monte-Carlo Technique in a Gas Insulated Busduct of Various Designs
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作者 Nagarjuna Reddy Poreddy Amarnath Jinka Rama Rao Narapareddy 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2014年第8期1487-1493,共7页
Due to the higher reliability and small ground space requirement, compressed GIS (gas insulated substation) has found extensive applications in urban areas and developing countries. The major parts of GIS is the gas... Due to the higher reliability and small ground space requirement, compressed GIS (gas insulated substation) has found extensive applications in urban areas and developing countries. The major parts of GIS is the gas insulated busducts, circuit breakers, isolators, etc.. The voltage withstand capability of SF6 (sulphur hexafluoride) busduct is strongly dependent on field perturbations such as those caused by conductor surface imperfections and by conducting particle contaminants which arise due to manufacturing process, mechanical vibrations, moving parts of system etc.. Contamination can create insulation problems at operating fields. An optimized design of GIS by varying the inner and outer diameter to 89 mm and 241 mm is considered for analysis and compared with a single phase enclosure with outer diameter as 152 mm and inner conductor diameter of 55 mm with aluminum and copper particles of size 10 mm in length and 0.25 mm in radius present on the enclosure. The results have been compared on the extent of particle movement for the same condition of the gas and particle geometry. Monte Carlo simulation is also carried out for determining the motion of particles in axial and radial directions. The random solid angle is changed from 1 to 0.5 degrees to take into account more smooth end profile of the particle. The simulation results have been presented and analyzed. 展开更多
关键词 Metallic particles electric field GIS
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On the Possibility of an Isochoric Phase Transition in an Electrostatic Field
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作者 A. A. Sobko 《Journal of Physical Science and Application》 2017年第3期44-46,共3页
In the present paper that considers the possibility for modification of equation of state for a non-polar gas in a closed thermally-insulated capacitor and, consequently, the possibility for changing the temperature a... In the present paper that considers the possibility for modification of equation of state for a non-polar gas in a closed thermally-insulated capacitor and, consequently, the possibility for changing the temperature and pressure under electrostatic field. This can be classified as a new type of phase transitions. 展开更多
关键词 Non-polar gas equation of state generalized equation of Van der Waals-Berthelot phase transition electrostatic field.
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Prediction of Volumetric Properties(p-v-T)of Natural Gas Mixtures Using Extended Tao-Mason Equation of State
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作者 Hajir Karimi Fakhri Yousefi Mohammad Mehdi Papari 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2011年第3期496-503,共8页
A statistical-mechanical-based equation of state(EOS)for pure substances,the Tao-Mason equation of state,is successfully extended to prediction of the(p-v-T)properties of fourteen natural gas mixtures at temperatures ... A statistical-mechanical-based equation of state(EOS)for pure substances,the Tao-Mason equation of state,is successfully extended to prediction of the(p-v-T)properties of fourteen natural gas mixtures at temperatures from 225 K to 483 K and pressures up to 60.5 MPa.This work shows that the Tao-Mason equation of state for multicomponent natural gas is predictable with minimal input information,namely critical temperature,critical pressure,and the Pitzer acentric factor.The calculated results agree well with the experimental data.From a total of 963 data of density and 330 data of compressibility factor for natural gases examined in this work,the average absolute deviations(AAD)are 1.704%and 1.344%,respectively.The present EOS is further assessed through the comparisons with Peng-Robinson(PR)equation of state.For the all of mixtures Tao-Mason(TM)EOS outperforms the PR EOS. 展开更多
关键词 equation of state natural gas MIXTURE density compressibility factor
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Eco Insulation Materials: Reduction of Cooling Loads of a House Made of Breeze Block or Laterite in a Dry Tropical Climate 被引量:3
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作者 Ousmane Coulibaly David Yemboini Kader Toguyeni 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2014年第7期1246-1250,共5页
In this paper, we study the influence ofeco materials for roof insulation and fiber-reinforced mortar coatings on cooling loads of a home in dry tropical climate. The walls of the house are made of cinderblock or late... In this paper, we study the influence ofeco materials for roof insulation and fiber-reinforced mortar coatings on cooling loads of a home in dry tropical climate. The walls of the house are made of cinderblock or laterite and the insulating material of a roof panel is made with lime (24%), cement (6%), water (50%) of vegetable fibers hibiscus sabdariffa (16%), tree widespread in Burkina Faso and sugar cane bagasse (4%). This panel roof insulation and the fiber-reinforced mortar were characterized at the Laboratory of Physics and Chemistry of the environment by the hot plate method. The building is modeled in TRNSYS using climate data from the city of Ouagadougou. The results obtained show that in the warmer months of the year, that is to say in March and April, the relative differences between heat gains the configurations "breeze block-coating mortar and roof not insulated" and "laterite- fiber-reinforced mortar coating and insulated roof' vary between 15.6% and 16.8%. The configuration "laterite-fiber-reinforced mortar coating and insulated roof allows a reduction of annual heat gains of 15.5% compared to the configuration "breeze block-coating mortar and roof not insulated". 展开更多
关键词 Hot-plate approach LATERITE fiber-reinforced mortar TRNSYS model cooling load.
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Discrimination of Acori Tatarinowii Rhizoma from two habitats based on GC-MS fingerprinting and LASSO-PLS-DA 被引量:4
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作者 马莎莎 张冰洋 +3 位作者 陈练 章晓娟 任达兵 易伦朝 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2018年第5期1063-1075,共13页
This study is intended to explore the chemical differences of Acori Tatarinowii Rhizoma (ATR) samples collected from two habitats, Sichuan and Anhui provinces, China. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) w... This study is intended to explore the chemical differences of Acori Tatarinowii Rhizoma (ATR) samples collected from two habitats, Sichuan and Anhui provinces, China. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was applied to establishing the quantitative chemical fingerprints of ATRs. A total of 104 volatile compounds were identified and quantified with the information of mass spectra and retention index (RI). Furthermore, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), a sparse regularization method, combined with subsampling was employed to improve the classification ability of partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). After variable selection by LASSO, three chemical markers,β-elemene, α-selinene and α-asarone, were identified for the discrimination of ATRs from two habitats, and the total classification correct rate was increased from 82.76% to 96.55%. The proposed LASSO-PLS-DA method can serve as an efficient strategy for screening marked chemical components and geo-herbalism research of traditional Chinese medicines. 展开更多
关键词 Acori Tatarinowii Rhizoma gas chromatography-mass spectrometry least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) partial least squares-discriminant analysis
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Economic Competition for High Profits from Antarctic Living Resources in Their Protection Area
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作者 Ryszard Jacek Traczyk 《Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A)》 2016年第1期1-58,共58页
Since 1790, Antarctic living resources were becoming subjects of competition among the exploiters to be first in obtaining the maximum profit from them. This led to subsequent extinction of valuable species from fur s... Since 1790, Antarctic living resources were becoming subjects of competition among the exploiters to be first in obtaining the maximum profit from them. This led to subsequent extinction of valuable species from fur seals and next penguins, large through small whales, industrial demersal fish, further to pelagic species and now toothfish, crabs and krill. Catch proportions of their numerous and biomass decrease. The biomass of South Georgia Icefish estimated for 40 years in spide of decreasing trend has one of the largest components-the oscillations with periods of 3 years or 4 years. Their models explain large biomass fluctuations in the years 1975 to 1981 with amplitudes ±15 × 10^3 tonnes around average 20 ×10^3 tonnes and further decline up to 2005 season with oscillation ±4 ×10^3 tonnes around average 5 × 10^3 tonnes. For future season, 2016 model predicts a little increase of the biomass oscillation at level of 8 × 10^3 tonnes with reduced amplitude 2 × 10^3 tonnes. Slowly increase density of adult fish was also reported for target similar and close related mackerel icefish. Additional references for biomass levels help reduce the risk of further depletion biomass of Pseudochaenichthys georgianus which already declined to 75%. As global warming promote phytoplankton growth, replacing krill fishery by algae farms can save unique Antarctic heritages. 展开更多
关键词 Maximum profits from resources fish biomass age of icefish Antarctic fish krill.
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On the Significance and Use of the Generalized Moist Potential Vorticity Equation
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作者 FU Shen-Ming SUN Jian-Hua 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2011年第3期131-135,共5页
In this paper,the continuity and thermodynamic equations including moisture forcings were derived.Using these two equations and the basic momentum equation of local Cartesian coordinates,the budget equation of general... In this paper,the continuity and thermodynamic equations including moisture forcings were derived.Using these two equations and the basic momentum equation of local Cartesian coordinates,the budget equation of generalized moist potential vorticity(GMPV) was derived.The GMPV equation is a good generalization of the Ertel potential vorticity(PV) and moist potential vorticity(MPV) equations.The GMPV equation is conserved under adiabatic,frictionless,barotropic,or saturated atmospheric conditions,and it is closely associated with the horizontal frontogenesis and stability of the real atmosphere.A real case study indicates that term diabatic heating could be a useful diagnostic tool for heavy rainfall events. 展开更多
关键词 potential vorticity moist potential vorticity
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A Novel Technology for Generation of Electricity and Cold by Using Energy Potential of Transmission Line's High Pressure Gas 被引量:1
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作者 Zohrab Melikyan 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2015年第10期852-859,共8页
The main objective of this paper is to develop a novel technology for combined generation of electricity and cold by using energy potential of transmission line's high pressure gas. For this purpose, the reduction of... The main objective of this paper is to develop a novel technology for combined generation of electricity and cold by using energy potential of transmission line's high pressure gas. For this purpose, the reduction of high pressure of the gas in gas distribution station instead of useless expansion throttling process is suggested to realize by adiabatic expansion, which is executed in a gas expanding turbine. Herewith, the gas distribution station is turned into energy and cold generating plant. Simultaneous operation of energy and cold generating plant is described. A method and appropriate formulas for determination of design characteristics of considered plant are suggested. A new method for reveres order of calculation and design of the cold store based on the use of expanded cold gas as cooling agent is developed. Calculations and analysis prove high energy efficiency of suggested technology, the wide use of which will provide significant production of cheap electricity and cold and as well as reduction of fossil fuel consumption. 展开更多
关键词 Natural gas gas distribution station throttling valve turbo-expander isenthalpic adiabatic.
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Case Study of Indirect Adiabatic Cooling System in Historical Building
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作者 Art.s Brahrnanis Armrs Lesinskis Andris Krumins 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2014年第2期313-317,共5页
The objective of the present study is to investigate the efficiency of indirect adiabatic chiller-based cooling system efficiency dependence of outdoor air humidity. The system is located in historical building, in te... The objective of the present study is to investigate the efficiency of indirect adiabatic chiller-based cooling system efficiency dependence of outdoor air humidity. The system is located in historical building, in temperate climate of Latvia. The data about electricity consumption, water consumption, chiller operation stages, cooling average temperatures and outdoor air parameters have been acquired for the period of 2.5 month, during the cooling season. Using data collected by BACnet based BMS controllers and adiabatic chiller control system, we have analyzed operation efficiency of the chiller and its dependence of outdoor air humidity. Data range for the period from August 1st till October 13th, 2011 was taken for deeper analysis, which showed that in temperature range 22.0 ± 0.5 ℃ for the studied period of time chiller's COP is slightly dependent on the outdoor air moisture. 展开更多
关键词 Indirect evaporative COOLING historical building.
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Could It Happen: Global Warming Leads to the Extinction of Mankind? 被引量:1
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作者 Jan-Erik Lane 《Management Studies》 2017年第6期545-554,共10页
The upcoming COP23 at Bonn of the UN and its UNFCCC must outline how its COP21 objectives are to be promoted by means of concrete international and national management. Only a massive replacement of fossil fuels and w... The upcoming COP23 at Bonn of the UN and its UNFCCC must outline how its COP21 objectives are to be promoted by means of concrete international and national management. Only a massive replacement of fossil fuels and wood coal by solar power parks, can wind power and atomic power save mankind from the grave threats of global warming. This paper presents a tentative estimation of what is involved with regard to the fulfilment of COP21 's GOAL II--decarbonisation to 30-40 per cent of 2005 level of emissions. 展开更多
关键词 decarbonisation the UNFCCC's COP21 Goals I II LII implementation gap game strategies commonpool regime (CPR) defection
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Study of Multilayer Flow Insulation Utilizing Open-Cellular Porous Plates
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作者 P. Khantikomol S. Saito T. Yokomine 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2010年第11期21-29,共9页
To improve the performance of the single layer flow insulation system utilizing open-cellular porous plate, the multilayer porous gas enthalpy-radiation converter is proposed and investigated experimentally and theore... To improve the performance of the single layer flow insulation system utilizing open-cellular porous plate, the multilayer porous gas enthalpy-radiation converter is proposed and investigated experimentally and theoretically. Two open-cellular porous materials with different porosity pore per inch and surface reflectivity have been examined. Each porous plate has the same thickness of a half of the single layer one. Both porous materials are not combined continuously but divided by free space. For the prediction model, two energy equations of the fluid and solid phases are employed, in which the convective heat transfer between both phases is described based on the empirical volumetric heat transfer coefficient. In addition, the radiative transfer equations are resolved by Pj approximation. When an equivalent blackbody radiation temperature of the radiation coming from the upstream region exceeds inlet gas temperature, use of a high reflective porous plate on the upstream side and a low reflective porous plate on the downstream side is quite effective to increase gas temperature drop across the converter. the multilayer porous converter should be made of pure scattering and porous layer, respectively. In order to obtain maximum gas temperature drop in that case, pure absorbing porous plate as the upstream and downstream 展开更多
关键词 Flow insulation open-cellular porous gas enthalpy-radiation converter gas temperature drop.
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Long-range precipitation forecasts using paleoclimate reconstructions in the western United States
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作者 Christopher Allen CARRIER Ajay KALRA Sajjad AHMAD 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第4期614-632,共19页
Long-range precipitation forecasts are useful when managing water supplies.Oceanicatmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence precipitation.Due to a longer cycle of some of the oscillations,a short instrumen... Long-range precipitation forecasts are useful when managing water supplies.Oceanicatmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence precipitation.Due to a longer cycle of some of the oscillations,a short instrumental record is a limitation in using them for long-range precipitation forecasts.The influence of oscillations over precipitation is observable within paleoclimate reconstructions;however,there have been no attempts to utilize these reconstructions in precipitation forecasting.A data-driven model,KStar,is used for obtaining long-range precipitation forecasts by extending the period of record through the use of reconstructions of oscillations.KStar is a nearest neighbor algorithm with an entropy-based distance function.Oceanic-atmospheric oscillation reconstructions include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO).Precipitation is forecasted for 20 climate divisions in the western United States.A 10-year moving average is applied to aid in the identification of oscillation phases.A lead time approach is used to simulate a one-year forecast,with a 10-fold cross-validation technique to test the models.Reconstructions are used from 1658-1899,while the observed record is used from 1900-2007.The model is evaluated using mean absolute error(MAE),root mean squared error(RMSE),RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio(RSR),Pearson's correlation coefficient(R),NashSutcliffe coefficient of efficiency(NSE),and linear error in probability space(LEPS) skill score(SK).The role of individual and coupled oscillations is evaluated by dropping oscillations in the model.The results indicate 'good' precipitation estimates using the KStar model.This modeling technique is expected to be useful for long-term water resources planning and management. 展开更多
关键词 Precipitation Oscillations Paleoclimate reconstruction Forecast KStar
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