Anomaly detection for network traffic flow

This paper presents a mechanism for detecting flooding-attacks. The simplicity of the mechanism lies in its statelessness and low computation overhead, which makes the detection mechanism itself immune to flooding-attacks. The SYN-flooding, as an instance of flooding-attack, is used to illustrate the anomaly detection mechanism. The mechanism applies an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method to detect the abrupt net flow and applies a symmetry analysis method to detect the anomaly activity of the network flow. Experiment shows that the mechanism has high detection accuracy and low detection latency.

外国文学门外谈

我省作家梅汝恺同志,是波兰作家显克微支的宏篇名著《火与剑》《洪流》和《君往何方》的中文译者。为此,波兰驻上海总领事柯瓦尔代表波兰政府文化艺术部长,于1984年11月29日在南京授予梅汝恺同志以"波兰人民共和国文化艺术奖章"。这是江苏文学界第一次获得外国政府奖。本刊特请梅汝恺同志写了这篇译后感,以饷读者。

Influence of Land Use/Cover Change on Storm Runoff—A Case Study of Xitiaoxi River Basin in Upstream of Taihu Lake Watershed

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is one of the main boundary conditions which influence many hydrologic processes. In view of the importance of Taihu Lake Watershed in China and the urgency of discovering the impacts of LUCC on storm runoff, two flood events under five land cover scenarios in the Xitiaoxi River Basin of the upstream of Taihu Lake watershed were simulated by distributed hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS. The influences of each land cover on storm runoff were discussed. It was concluded that under the same rainstorm the ascending order of runoff coefficient and peak flow produced by the 5 different land covers were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land; the descending order of swelling time were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land. Scenario of built-up land was the first to reach peak flow, then arable land, grassland, shrub, and woodland. There were close relationships between the runoff coefficients produced by the 5 different land covers. The degrees of impacts on runoff coefficient of land cover change modes were sorted by descending: woodland to built-up land, shrub to built-up land, grassland to built-up land, arable land to built-up land, woodland to arable land, shrub to arable land, arable land to grassland, shrub to grassland, grassland to arable land, and woodland to shrub. Urbanization will contribute to flood disaster, while forestation will mitigate flood disaster.

Numerical Simulation of Atomization due to Flood Discharges of Hydropower Stations

To mitigate the damages produced by flood discharges of hydropower stations, a three-dimensional numerical model of the aerated water jet restricted by gravity, air resistance and air buoyancy is proposed. Based on theoretical analysis and prototype data, a three-dimensional stochastic model is constructed using Monte Carlo method to evaluate the range of atomization and intensity of rainfall in gorges, which are strongly affected by complex terrain and various wind conditions. The prototype data observed from two hydropower stations are selected in the feedback and verification analysis to verify the proposed model. The result shows that the computational solutions fit the prototype data well. This model can be used to forecast the atomization of a hydropower station that is being designed or constructed.

Case History of the Disastrous Debris Flows of Tianmo Watershed in Bomi County, Tibet, China: Some Mitigation Suggestions

Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Watershed on Sept. 4, 2007, July 25, 2010 and Sept. 4, 2010, blocked Parlung Zangbo River and produced dammed lakes, whose outburst flow made 50 m high terrace collapse at the opposite bank due to intense scouring on the foot of the terrace. As a result, the traffic was interrupted for 16 days in 2010 because that 900 m highway base was destructed and 430 m ruined. These debris flows were initiated by the glacial melting which was induced by continuous higher temperature and the following intensive rainfall, and expanded by moraines along channels and then blocked Parlung Zangbo. At the outlet of watershed,the density, velocity and peak discharge of debris flow was 2.06 t/m3, 12.7 m/s and 3334 m3/s, respectively. When the discharge at the outlet and the deposition volume into river exceeds 2125 m3/s and 126×103 m3, respectively, debris flow will completely blocked Parlung Zangbo. Moreover,if the shear stress of river flow on the foot of terrace and the inclination angel of terrace overruns 0. 377 N/m2 and 26°, respectively, the unconsolidated terrace will be eroded by outburst flow and collapse. It was strongly recommended for mitigation that identify and evade disastrous debris flows, reduce the junction angel of channels between river and watershed, build protecting wall for highway base and keep appropriate distance between highway and the edge of unconsolidated terrace.

Analysis of interaction between surface and sewer pipe system based on computational fluid dynamics

To verify the accuracy of weir and orifice formula and analyze the hydraulic characteristics of exchange flow in a manhole,a three-dimensional numerical model was proposed to assess the exchange flow rate between the surface and sewer pipe systems based on the real-world scale model.The hydrodynamic model is based on the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations including the standard k-εmodel for turbulence processes,and the volume of fluid(VOF)method for capturing the free surface.The results of the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)simulation are compared with the conventional overflow equations,showing that the weir and orifice formula is appropriate to determine the exchange flow rate between two systems in this specific study case.Streamlines and velocity contours at the center profile under both the inflow and surcharge conditions show that the exchange flow is directly related to the water level on the surface and the junction area between the manhole and right pipe.The results demonstrate the potential application of CFD in analyzing the interaction of urban flood flows,which can provide much clearer details of the interaction process.

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana- lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.

A Typical Mode of Seasonal Circulation Transition: A Climatic View of the Abrupt Transition from Drought to Flood over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in the Late Spring and Early Summer of 2011

In this study, the seasonal transition of precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yang-tze River Valley (YRV) from late spring to early summer is investigated. The results show that the seasonal transition of precipitation exhibits multi-modes. One of these modes is characterized by an abrupt transition from drought to flood (ATDF) over the middle and lower reaches of the YRV in the seasonal transition of precipitation. It is shown that the ATDF event from May to June 2011 is simply one prominent case of the ATDF mode. The ATDF mode exhibits an obvious decadal variability. The mode has occurred more frequently since 1979, and its amplitude has apparently strengthened since 1994. From the climatic view, the ATDF mode configures a typical seasonal circulation transition from winter to summer, for which the winter circulations are prolonged, and the summer circulations with the rainy season are built up early over the YRV.

Trends of Extreme Flood Events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951-2010

The study investigated the trend of extreme flood events in the Pearl River basin during 1951-2010. Stream flow data at 23 gauging stations were used for the study. The Pearson type III distribution was selected for the flood frequency analysis. Results indicate that extreme flood events increase significantly in the Pearl River Basin since 1980. At the 23 gauging stations, there are 16 (70%) stations show positive (increasing) trends in 1981-2010. Most of the 16 stations are located along the West River and North River. While 7 (30%) stations show negative (decreasing) trends, and are found in the East River and the southeast region of the West River Basin.

Suspended sediment transport analysis in two Italian instrumented catchments

Suspended sediment transport in streams is an effective indicator of soil erosion at the watershed scale. This process was studied using the data obtained from two continuous monitoring stations installed in Italian watersheds, the Rio Cordon and Torrente CarapeUe. The catchments have substantially different climatic, morphological and land use characteristics. The Rio Cordon, a small Alpine watershed, has been monitored since 1986, while in the Torrente Carapelle, a medium-size Mediterranean watershed, the monitoring station has provided data since 2007. Several flood events with suspended sediment transport were isolated in the two catchments, excluding those determined by snowmelt in the Rio Cordon as this process does not affect the Carapelle watershed. Analysis of the events showed different behavior in terms of hysteresis loop trends between water discharge （m3 S-1） and suspended sediment concentration （g 1-1） values, as the Rio Cordon confirms clockwise relationships most frequently, while counter-clockwise trends represent the majority of cases for the Carapelle Torrent. The different behavior of the two watersheds was further analyzed by evaluating relationships between the main hydrological parameters related to suspended sediment transport. Runoff controls the total sediment budget in both catchments. In contrast, it was noted that the runoff process does not interfere in the magnitude of the suspended sediment transport in the Rio Cordon catchment, while variations due to the larger size of the catchment area characterize the events in the Carapelle watershed. Lastly, a flow peak threshold that determines the advance or delay of the hydrograph peak with respect to the sedigraph peak was established for the Carapelle Torrent, while it was not reported in the Rio Cordon.

Influence of Housing and Urban Development on Debris Flow Flooding and Deposition

Debris flows form deposits when they reach an alluvial fan until they eventually stop.However,houses located in the alluvial fan might affect the debris flow flooding and deposition processes.Few previous studies have considered the effects of houses on debris flow flooding and deposition.This study conducted model experiments and numerical simulations using the Kanako2D debris flow simulator to determine the influence of houses on debris flow flooding and deposition.The model experiments showed that when houses are present,the debris flow spreads widely in the cross direction immediately upstream of the houses,especially when the flow discharge is large or the grain size is small.Houses located in the alluvial fan also influence the deposition area.The presence of houses led to flooding and deposition damage in some places and reduced the damage in others.The simulation also demonstrated the influence of houses.Both the model experiment and the simulation showed that houses change the flooding and deposition areas.

A catastrophic debris flow in the Wenchuan Earthquake area,July 2013：characteristics,formation,and risk reduction

In the Wenchuan Earthquake area,many co-seismic landslides formed blocking-dams in debris flow channels. This blocking and bursting of landslide dams amplifies the debris flow scale and results in severe catastrophes. The catastrophic debris flow that occurred in Qipan gully(Wenchuan,Southwest China) on July 11,2013 was caused by intense rainfall and upstream cascading bursting of landslide dams. To gain an understanding of the processes of dam bursting and subsequent debris flow scale amplification effect,we attempted to estimate the bursting debris flow peak discharges along the main gully and analyzed the scale amplification process. The results showed that the antecedent and triggering rainfalls for 11 July debris flow event were 88.0 mm and 21.6 mm,respectively. The event highlights the fact that lower rainfall intensity can trigger debris flows after the earthquake. Calculations of the debris flow peak discharge showed that the peak discharges after the dams-bursting were 1.17–1.69 times greater than the upstream peak discharge. The peak discharge at the gully outlet reached 2553 m^3/s which was amplified by 4.76 times in comparison with the initial peak discharge in the upstream. To mitigate debris flow disasters,a new drainage channel with a trapezoidal V-shaped cross section was proposed. The characteristic lengths(h1 and h2) under optimal hydraulic conditions were calculated as 4.50 m and 0.90 m,respectively.

Effects of spillway types on debris flow trajectory and scour behind a sabo dam

Debris flows are one of the common natural hazards in mountainous areas.They often cause devastating damage to the lives and property of local people.The sabo dam construction along a debris flow valley is considered to be a useful method for hazard mitigation.Previous work has concentrated on the different types of sabo dams such as close-type sabo dam,open-type sabo dam.However,little attention has been paid to the spillway structure of sabo dam.In the paper,a new type of spillway structure with lateral contraction was proposed.Debris flow patterns under four different spillway structures were investigated.The projection theory was employed to predict trajectory of debris flow out from the spillway and to estimate the incident angle and terminal velocity before it plunged into the scour hole behind the sabo dam.The results indicated that the estimated data were in good agreement with the experimental ones.The discrepancy between the estimated and experimental values of main parameters remained below 21.82%(relative error).Additionally,the effects of debris flow scales under different spillway structures were considered to study the scour law.Although the debris flow pattern and scour law behind the sabo dam under different operating conditions was analyzed in this paper,further study on the scour mechanism andthe maximum scour depth estimation based on scour theory is still required in the future.

Effects of Roughness Elements Distribution on Overland Flow Resistance

Roughness elements are various in a mountain area; they include gravel and ground surface vegetation that often result in surface friction drag to resist overland flows. The variation and characteristics of flow resistance strongly impact the overland flow process and watershed floods. In view of the universal existence of natural vegetation, such as Chlorophytum malayense(CM) or Ophiopogon bodinieri(OB), and the sand-gravel bed of the river channel, it is important to understand the role of different types of roughness elements in flow resistance. This study was performed to investigate and compare through flume experiments the behaviors of overland flow resistance by the reaction of multi-scale configuration of different roughness elements. The result showed that the resistance coefficient gradually reduced versus the increase of flow rate in unit width and tended to be a constant when q = 3.0 l/s.m, Fr = 1.0, and Re = 4000 for slopes of 6 to 10 degrees. The gap of the vegetated rough bed and the gravel rough bed is limited to the same as the gap of the two types of vegetation, CM and OB. It was noted that the vegetation contributed to the increase in form resistance negatively and may lead to the mean resistance on decrease. To classify the flow pattern, the laminar flows were described by DarcyWeisbach's equation. In the study the f-Re equation of vegetated bed was developed with f ?5000 Re.The friction coefficient for laminar flows can be regarded as the critical value for identifying the transformation point of the flow pattern.

Variation of Floods Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate and Human Activities in Poyang Lake, China

The Poyang Lake is one of the most frequently flooded areas in China. Understanding the changing characteristics of floods as well as the affecting factors is an important prerequisite of flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The present study identified the characteristics variations of historical floods in the Poyang Lake and their tendencies based on the Mann-Kendall(M-K) test, and also investigated the related affecting factors, both from climate and human activities. The results revealed that the highest flood stages, duration as well as hazard coefficient of floods showed a long-term increasing linear trend during the last 60 years with the M-K statistic of 1.49, 1.60 and 1.50, respectively. And, a slightly increasing linear trend in the timing of the highest stages indicated the floods occurred later and later during the last six decades. The rainfall during the flood season and subsequent discharges of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River and runoff from the Poyang Lake Basin were mainly responsible for the severe flood situation in the Poyang Lake in the 1990 s. In addition, the intensive human activities, including land reclamation and levee construction, also played a supplementary role in increasing severity of major floods. While, the fewer floods in the Poyang Lake after 2000 can be attributed to not only the less rainfall over the Poyang Lake Basin and low discharges of the Changjiang River during flood periods, but also the stronger influences of human activity which increased the floodwater storage of the Poyang Lake than before.

Mountain Effect and Differences in Storm Floods between Northern and Southern Sources of the Songhua River Basin

In this study, the differences in annual rainstorm changes in the Second Songhua River Basin and the Nenjiang River basin and their causes were compared from the perspective of mountain effects. The following results were drawn: (1) Altitude effect is the primary factor leading to increased rainstorms in the southern source; (2) Slope effect primarily leads to differences of the weather systems in the two sources, and thus cause the difference of the rainstorms; (3) Slope effect is responsible for the greater fluctuation in the observed floods in the southern source. These landform differences eventually lead to the differences in the characteristics of floods in the southern and northern sources. Commensurability method was used to identify the period of rainstorms in the southern and northern sources. The results showed that although rainstorms do not appear at the same time in the two sources they are characteristic of a 10 years' period in both areas. These results can serve as hydrological references for flood control and long-term flood disaster predictions.

Correlations between zooplankton assemblages and environmental factors in the downtown rivers of Shanghai,China

Most urban rivers play an important role in urban flood control and drainage in China, but pollution is fast becoming an issue of greater importance in water management. In this study, 63 zooplankton species were recorded in four downtown rivers in Shanghai between November 2007 and October 2008. Of these, 44 species belonged to the Rotifera, 13 to Cladocera, and six to Copepoda. The three most frequently occurring zooplankton （Brachionus calyciflorus, Microcyclops Ieuckarti, and Asplanchna priodonta） accounted for 80.00%, 76.84%, and 53.68%, respectively. Rotifera were found to be dominant, comprising 86.26% of total zooplankton, while cladoceran and copepod abundance amounted to 5.08% and 8.67%, respectively. Water temperature, salinity, electrical conductivity, and total nitrogen were of the greatest significance in the occurrence of zooplankton. Two species （Schmackeria forbesi and Lepadella ovalis） were notably more sensitive to environmental factors such as salinity and electrical conductivity than other species. The population size and community were inversely correlated with the increasing nutrient levels of the four rivers, suggesting that the water quality of the four rivers had been gradually recovering from a severe eutrophic state and that water conditions of the rivers had been gradually improved.

Establishing the Basic Indicator for the Calculation of the Flood Vulnerability Index for River Basins in Vietnam

Along with the concept, the method of assessing the vulnerability is becoming more and more diversified in many directions and fields. In general, these methods can be classified into two groups： （i） direct-qualitative （survey methods, integrated map ...） and （ii） indirectly-quantitative （method index）. The set of indicator plays a very important role in the successful application to any method and brings reliable results. Each basin or area with different natural geography, economics and society and so on, requires a different set of indicator. However, assessing any river basin in Vietnam needs the basic indicator. This study will establish the basic indicator for the construction of flood vulnerability index in Vietnam.

Urban Flood by Extraordinary Rainfall in Small River Basin

The extraordinary rainfall occurred in the small river basin （called Asano River） of Kanazawa city, Ishikawa prefecture middle part of Japan, July 2008. The center of the city was affected by severe damages by the big flood due to the extraordinary rainfall. This study aims to make clear the probability of the extraordinary rainfall, the mechanism of the flood, the flood fighting activities etc. and to prepare to the future big flood. For this purposes, the analysis of probability of rainfall events is carried out by use of three methods. They are Gumbel method, Hazen plot and Momentum method. The return period is estimated 250 years. Next runoff analysis by use of the Tank model method was carried out. This model consists of several series of rainfall storage tanks. The upper tank corresponds to surface runoff and the lower tank corresponds to inter runoff and ground water runoff. The result shows that the observed and simulated discharge is similar. So the future flood by the extraordinary rainfall events is able to predict the amounts of the flood. Finally, the problem of the flood fighting activity is cleared for the safety of the people in the river basin.

Application of a Coupled Land Surface-Hydrological Model to Flood Simulation in the Huaihe River Basin of China

A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) was investigated using two different models: a coupled land surface hydrological model(CLHMS), and a large-scale hydrological model(LSX-HMS). The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting.