《管理决策》推介

本书为“中欧——沃顿创新管理译丛”之一。 复杂的商业环境需要我们慎重地做出决策,而每一个决策都包含着一定的风险。对于那些每天行走在悬崖边上的经理人来说,决策前提出正确的问题、认真分析局势是至关重要的,因为他们的决策将组织发展和个人职业产生深远持久的影响。但是,究竟哪一类的问题才是正确的问题?

《管理决策》

复杂的商业环境需要我们慎重地做出决策,而每一个决策都包含着一定的风险。对于那些每天行走在悬崖边上的经理人来说,决策前提出正确的问题、认真分析局势是至关重要的,因为他们的决策将对组织发展和个人职业产生深远持久的影响。但是,究竟哪一类的问题才是正确的问题?不断加速的变革与日益增长的复杂性将带来哪些影响?管理者应该如何利用新技术改进自己的决策呢?

将管理规范化进行到底

中国有句古话说：“不以规矩，不成方圆。”为了让小孩子健康成长，成才成器，从小孩子一出生，父母就要谆谆教诲子女“应该做什么，应该怎么做，不应该做什么”等等的各种规矩。

Digital Ocean Information Framework of China and its application in the international marine cooperation

Digital Ocean Information Framework （DOIF） has been proposed by China in 2011 based on the achievements of the comprehensive offshore oceanic surveys supported by Chinese Offshore Investigation and Assessment Program, whose code name is 908. All observations from the surveys have been integrated and managed by DOIF. DOIF is capable of supporting the decision of making process for the sustainable use of marine resources in coastal regions of China, providing useful information and added value products as well as services for the improved management of the coastal areas in China with high business impact on the targeted groups as public authorities and commercial operators （e.g. managers, fishermen, shipping companies）. The future vision of DOIF in the international marine data and information exchange and service at Western Pacific region is presented in this paper.

Assessment of temporal and spatial variations in surface water quality using multivariate statistical techniques: A case study of Nenjiang River basin, China

Assessment of temporal and spatial variations in surface water quality is important to evaluate the health of a watershed and make necessary management decisions to control current and future pollution of receiving water bodies. In this work, surface water quality data for 12 physical and chemical parameters collected from 10 sampling sites in the Nenjiang River basin during the years(2012-2013) were analyzed. The results show that river water quality has significant temporal and spatial variations. Hierarchical cluster analysis(HCA) grouped 12 months into three periods(LF, MF and HF) and classified 10 monitoring sites into three regions(LP, MP and HP) based on the similarity of water quality characteristics. The principle component analysis(PCA)/factor analysis(FA) was used to recognize the factors or origins responsible for temporal and spatial water quality variations. Temporal and spatial PCA/FA revealed that the Nenjiang River water chemistry was strongly affected by rock/water interaction, hydrologic processes and anthropogenic activities. This work demonstrates that the application of HCA and PCA/FA has achieved meaningful classification based on temporal and spatial criteria.

HRM and Quantitatives： Decision Tree and Vector Analysis in HRM Theory

Research topic of this paper is to discuss theory of Human Resources Management （HRM） and to discuss using of quantitative methods in HRM. Firstly, five variables establish HRM theory. They are HRM practices, positive organizational behaviors, individual performance, performance of business departments, and firm performance. Transactions among those variables enable Human Resources （HR） practitioners to apply HRM theory in their organizations. Secondly, this paper discusses use of quantitative methods in HRM. They are vector analysis and decision tree analysis. Those analyses enable HR practitioners to make effective HR decisions. Decision tree sets HR alternatives to efficiently implement HRM practices in organizations. Research question is how HR practitioners apply quantitative methods in department of HRM in firms. Finally this research comes out a conclusion that quantitative methods may be used in HRM.

Forest Structure Analysis in the Oban Division of Cross River National Park, Nigeria

Information on forest structure is important for forest management decisions. This is inadequate in many situations, especially where timber is not of primary interest. We analyzed the structure of two forest types in the Oban Division of Cross River National Park, Nigeria. Systematic sampling technique was used to establish two transects measuring 2,000 x 2 m, at 600 m interval in the two forest types in four locations. Four 50 m x 50 m plots were located alternately at 500 m intervals along each transect, constituting 32 plots per forest type and 64 plots in all, Diameters at breast height （DBH）, base; middle and top; crown diameter; total height and crown length were measured on all trees with DBH 〉_ 10 cm. There were 159 stems/ha in the close-canopy forest and 132 stems/ha in the secondary forest. The mean DBH were 34.5 cm and 33.62 cm respectively. The mean heights were 24.79 m and 23.97 m, respectively. Basal area/ha were 41.59 m2 ha~ and 27.38 m2 hal for the two forest types. Majority of the trees encountered in the two forest types belonged to the middle stratum which has implication for small mammals＇ populations. Emergent trees which are otherwise scarce in other parts of the country were recorded, which also has implications for density thinning and seed supplies.

Application of a mixed DEA model to evaluate relative efficiency validity

Data envelopment analysis(DEA) model is widely used to evaluate the relative efficiency of producers. It is a kind of objective decision method with multiple indexes. However, the two basic models frequently used at present, the C2R model and the C2GS2 model have limitations when used alone,resulting in evaluations that are often unsatisfactory. In order to solve this problem, a mixed DEA model is built and is used to evaluate the validity of the business efficiency of listed companies. An explanation of how to use this mixed DEA model is offered and its feasibility is verified.

Multi-factors decision-making entropy method and its application in engineering management

In order to meet the strict requirements for information in engineering management, the positive interval （0, 1 ] in Shannon information entropy is extended to the real number interval [ - 1, 1 ]. The information theory and the decision theory are combined effectively, and the deficiencies that the traditional Bayes decision-making methods only consider a single factor are made up for. The multi-factors engineering decision-making methods are proposed, and some critical problems are solved in the practical engineering management decision-making process.

Arrival Pattern Recognition and Prediction Based on Machine Learning

A data-driven method for arrival pattern recognition and prediction is proposed to provide air traffic controllers(ATCOs)with decision support. For arrival pattern recognition,a clustering-based method is proposed to cluster arrival patterns by control intentions. For arrival pattern prediction,two predictors are trained to estimate the most possible command issued by the ATCOs in a particular traffic situation. Training the arrival pattern predictor could be regarded as building an ATCOs simulator. The simulator can assign an appropriate arrival pattern for each arrival aircraft,just like real ATCOs do. Therefore,the simulator is considered to be able to provide effective advice for part of the work of ATCOs. Finally,a case study is carried out and demonstrates that the convolutional neural network(CNN)-based predictor performs better than the radom forest(RF)-based one.

Market Share Model of Price and Advertising Combined Game in Duopoly

The marketing share model of price and advertising in a duopoly market was studied in this paper. Market response curves of price and advertising were presented to calculate the reasonable range based on the market forecast results. The interaction effect of price and advertising was considered,and the game theory was applied to a two-stage price and advertising competition which involved the market share model. A marketing decision support system (MDSS) was developed and simulation data was provided to give the solutions. The operation results show that the leading enterprise makes higher price,spends more on advertising,and earns more profit,while the small-scale enterprise has to lower the price,spend less on advertising,and has slightly higher profit rate. The system is shown to be adaptable to a wide variety of realistic situations.

The decision-making dimension of the systems approach to management

Theoretically, a system is anything that is made up of various parts. Theses parts are known as subsystems. At every point in time, these parts should work in harmony so that objectives could be achieved successfully. A system could be inanimate or animate item. Examples of inanimate systems include vehicles, households, computer and institution. Examples of animate systems are human being, animal and insect. Both inanimate and animate systems are made up of various subsystems. Such subsystems are required to co-operate, collaborate and work together so that set objectives could be achieved successfully. From practical managerial point of view, business organizations are equally systems that are made up of subsystems which may take the form of departments, sections and/or units. It is supposed to be collaborations among the managers and other members in these departments, sections and/or units so that organizational objectives could be achieved. All the managers in various departments, sections and/or units are required to work together as a team to make the system coherent and closely-knit to make disintegration impossible. Closely related to the systems approach to management is managerial decision-making. Decision-making is a very important function of every manager＇s job. The success and failure stories of many organizations are the result of the quality of decisions made. Many organizations have survived turbulent conditions. Others have also collapsed in spite of favourable conditions. These varying conditions are the result of the quality of decisions made by managers at positions of authority and responsibility. Therefore the systems approach to management enjoins top managers in particular to be very circumspect and cautious in certain decision-making activities. This is because, the quality of decision a manager makes can go a long way to determine the success or failure story of an organization as exemplified in the case study in this paper.

Developing a mathematical assessment model for blasting patterns management: Sungun copper mine

Blasting is one of the most important operations in the mining projects that has effective role in the whole operation physically and economically. Unsuitable blasting pattern may lead to unwanted events such as poor fragmentation, back break and fly rock. Multi attribute decision making(MADM) can be useful method for selecting the most appropriate blasting pattern among previously performed patterns. In this work, initially, from various already performed patterns, efficient and inefficient patterns are determined using data envelopment analysis(DEA). In the second step, after weighting impressive attributes using experts' opinion, elimination Et choice translating reality(ELECTRE) was used for ranking the efficient patterns and recognizing the most appropriate pattern in the Sungun Copper Mine, Iran. According to the obtained results, blasting pattern with the hole diameter of 15.24 cm, burden of 3 m, spacing of 4 m and stemming of 3.2 m has selected as the best pattern and has selected for future operation.

Managers in making The Zen management way

In the 21st century every manager in making requires a unique balance in personal, professional, family and social life so that he/she can enjoy and motivate himself to make others happy around him or her. The ego plays a major role in our life. Practicing Zen in management takes the manager to a level of egolessness. Zen finds its source in the experience of Shakyamuni Buddha, who in the process of enlightenment came across the elements of mindfulness and concentration--The noble eightfold path. These are key elements of success for the ＂managers in making＂. The purpose of this paper consists in rethinking today＇s management systems in order to look for ways of management which are better adapted to human life. It is assumed that a management practice which takes into consideration of the characteristics of human life must be accepted by a large number of people and would be effective and sustainable. This paper highlights the eight elements of＂The noble eightfold path＂ and its effective implications in management for the ＂managers in making＂ process--A guide towards success.

Decision Making in Economic Managemen

领导的过程就是制定决策并实施决策的过程。决策正确与否,关系到事业的成败,经济的兴衰。因此,在经济管理中按照科学的秩序和方法,制定和实施决策,实现决策科学化,这是市场经济的需要,是事业发展的需要,也是检验现代领导者经济管理水平的重要标志。

The Impact of Personality Traits and Problem Structures on Management Decision-Making Outcomes

Since decision-making behavior has been in the focus both from a scientific and a professional position, there seems to be a dispute whether rational or intuitive decision making leads to better outcomes. By now, scholars have agreed that effective organizations do not have the luxury to choose between the ＂applications＂ of intuitive or rational decision making. Instead, they try to understand how different factors like personality traits and problem characteristics influence the decision-making process. Reviewing the literature reveals that personality pre-determination and the structure of problems （e.g., well-structured problems （WSPs） versus ill-structured problems （ISPs）） seem to have a significant impact on the decision-making efficiency. Further, the review also shows that there is a lack of application-oriented empirical studies in this area of research. Therefore, the aim of this research paper is to propose a framework for an empirical study on how personality traits and problem structure influence the decision-making process. First, hypotheses are derived from the literature on how personality pre-determination and behavioral patterns in the decision-making process lead to higher socioeconomic efficiency within certain problem categories. Second, a causal model and a setup for a laboratory experiment are proposed to allow testing the hypotheses. Finally, the conclusions provide an outlook on how this research could support organizations in their decision-making processes.

The Role of Accountants in Decision-Making in Lebanese Firms

The issue of accountants＇ role in decision-making has been the center of attention of lots of studies in the last decade but never did it get the adequate coverage in Lebanon. This paper studies to what extent accountants are involved in the managerial decision-making in Lebanon. Two hundred experienced accountants from all over the country were randomly selected for a questionnaire survey. This survey provides evidence as to what factors contribute to the variance of influence accountants have in managerial decision-making. The results from the questionnaires varied, but we conclude that accountants＇ involvement in new product development （NPD）, the skills that accountants have, their role in the financial analysis of the firm, and how much the finn they work for encourages them to advice on business decisions affect the degree of contribution an accountant has to decision-making. The findings of this research could be used as a reference to help in understanding the role of accounting in Lebanon by various finns and organizations.

Goal-Setting in the Information-Generating Environment of the Universe

Problem of goal-setting is related to the fundamental principles of informationology and general, rather than specific, aproaches, which enable a more adequate appraisal of certain managerial decisions in terms of their efficiency. In article this problem is considered and from positions of informationology is formulated and on the basis of a method of full mathematical induction the Law of positive dynamics of the Universe is proved. This law establishes preference of the positive purposes in all processes happening in the Universe. Thus, the goal-setting which is carried out from positions of the described Law is the important world outlook prerequisite searching, identification and development of strategic alternatives of purposeful social innovations.