Climate change threatens the sustainable development and survival of the small Caribbean island nations. The continual rise in the demand and cost of the earth＇s finite hydrocarbon energy reservoir drives these count...Climate change threatens the sustainable development and survival of the small Caribbean island nations. The continual rise in the demand and cost of the earth＇s finite hydrocarbon energy reservoir drives these countries to examine the integration of renewable energy to reduce green house gas emissions whilst meeting their electrical energy demands. One possible renewable energy source is wind. Trinidad and Tobago, through its renewable energy policy, is seeking to reliably and economically integrate wind power with its conventional power generation sources. This paper assesses the adequacy of wind power generation at potential sites through the use of auto-regressive modeling and the use of Monte Carlo Simulation to evaluate the well-being indices for the combination of wind and conventional power generation. Two sites in the twin island Republic of Trinidad and Tobago were identified as case studies for the proposed methodology. Analysis of the results indicated that the methodology should be applied to sites with conditions encouraging economic feasibility of wind power generation.展开更多
Vulnerability means the degree to which that a system is susceptible to suffer damage. This paper focuses on the economic vulnerability to risk of energy import by employing ratio of net energy import to GDP as indica...Vulnerability means the degree to which that a system is susceptible to suffer damage. This paper focuses on the economic vulnerability to risk of energy import by employing ratio of net energy import to GDP as indicator, and decomposes the vulnerability change into effects of energy import, structure and intensity in order to find out key factors that influence economic security to energy import. Decomposition analysis on China indicates that effect of rising energy import takes more than 90 percent of total vulnerability change during the last 10 years, along with insignificant effect of structural change and intensity decline. International analysis on cross- section data of net energy importers also presents the positive relationship between external energy dependence and economic vulnerability. However, results of America show that long-term effect of energy intensity is much larger than China from 1954 to 2007, which is 70.8% of its total vulnerability change. Experience from developed countries confirms the necessary and validity of improving energy efficiency on depressing economic vulnerability to energy import, which provides lessons for the energy development of China.展开更多
文摘Climate change threatens the sustainable development and survival of the small Caribbean island nations. The continual rise in the demand and cost of the earth＇s finite hydrocarbon energy reservoir drives these countries to examine the integration of renewable energy to reduce green house gas emissions whilst meeting their electrical energy demands. One possible renewable energy source is wind. Trinidad and Tobago, through its renewable energy policy, is seeking to reliably and economically integrate wind power with its conventional power generation sources. This paper assesses the adequacy of wind power generation at potential sites through the use of auto-regressive modeling and the use of Monte Carlo Simulation to evaluate the well-being indices for the combination of wind and conventional power generation. Two sites in the twin island Republic of Trinidad and Tobago were identified as case studies for the proposed methodology. Analysis of the results indicated that the methodology should be applied to sites with conditions encouraging economic feasibility of wind power generation.
基金This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China（70733005 70701032） the National Key Projects from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China （2006-BAB08B01）
文摘Vulnerability means the degree to which that a system is susceptible to suffer damage. This paper focuses on the economic vulnerability to risk of energy import by employing ratio of net energy import to GDP as indicator, and decomposes the vulnerability change into effects of energy import, structure and intensity in order to find out key factors that influence economic security to energy import. Decomposition analysis on China indicates that effect of rising energy import takes more than 90 percent of total vulnerability change during the last 10 years, along with insignificant effect of structural change and intensity decline. International analysis on cross- section data of net energy importers also presents the positive relationship between external energy dependence and economic vulnerability. However, results of America show that long-term effect of energy intensity is much larger than China from 1954 to 2007, which is 70.8% of its total vulnerability change. Experience from developed countries confirms the necessary and validity of improving energy efficiency on depressing economic vulnerability to energy import, which provides lessons for the energy development of China.
