《雨石》启示录

由龙奇教字艺术教育的教师导演，历时两年时间制作的动画电影《雨石》即将上映。

Debris Flow Warning Threshold Based on Antecedent Rainfall:a Case Study in Jiangjia Ravine,Yunnan,China

Debris flows in Jiangjia Ravine in Yunnan province, China are not only triggered by intense storms but also by short-duration and low-intensity rainfalls. This reflects the significance of antecedent rainfall. This paper tries to find the debris flow- triggering threshold by considering antecedent rainfall through a case study in Jiangjia Ravine. From 23 debris flow events, the I-D （Intensity-Duration） threshold was found, which is very dose to the line of 95th percentile regression line of rainfall events, representing that 95% of rainfalls can potentially induce debris flows and reflects the limitation of I-D threshold application in this area. Taking into account the effect of antecedent rainfall, the debris flowtriggering threshold for rainfall quantity and intensity is statistically and empirically derived. The relationships can be used in debris flow warning system as key thresholds. Coupling with the rainfall characteristics in this area, new thresholds are proposed as triggering and warning thresholds.

Rainfall,Landslide and Debris Flow Intergrowth Relationship in Jiangjia Ravine

Jiangjia Ravine is a world-famous debris flow valley in Dongchuan,Yunnan Province,China.Every year large numbers of landslides and collapses happened and caused enormous damages to people's properties and lives.With longtime observation and testing in Jiangjia Ravine we had found out one kind of special landslide which had the characteristics of landslide and collapse.Landslide and collapse supplied sufficient materials for debris flow.When a debris flow broke out,some kind of intergrowth existed among rainfall,landslide and debris flow.In order to study the intergrowth and some key parameters,we carried out artificial rainfall landslide tests and model experiments to observe the phenomena such as collapse,surface slide and surface flow.By observing the experimental phenomena and monitoring water contents,the transformation process among landslide deposits and debris flow under the condition of rainfall had been analyzed.Research results revealed the relationship of this kind of intergrowth among rainfall,landslide and debris flow in Jiangjia Ravine.Meanwhile,it was found that this kind of intergrowth relationship existed only when the moisture content was in a certain range.That is,the critical state seemed to be existed in the transformation process.

The Critical Rainfall Characteristics for Torrents and Debris Flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake Stricken Area

Critical rainfall assessment is a very important tool for hazard management of torrents and debris flows in mountainous areas. The Wenchuan Earthquake 2008 caused huge casualties and property damages in the earthquake-stricken area,which also generated large quantities of loose solid materials and increased occurrence probabilities of debris flows. There is an urgent need to quantify the critical rainfall distribution in the area so that better hazard management could be planned and if real time rainfall forecast is available,torrent and debris flow early-warning could be issued in advance. This study is based on 49-year observations (1954-2003) of up to 678 torrent and debris flow events. Detailed contour maps of 1 hour and 24 hour critical rainfalls have been generated (Due to the data limitation,there was insufficient 10 minute critical rainfall to make its contour map). Generally,the contour maps from 1 hour and 24 hours have similar patterns. Three zones with low,medium and high critical rainfalls have been identified. The characteristics of the critical rainfall zones are linked with the local vegetation cover and land forms. Further studies and observations are needed to validate the finding and improve the contour maps.

Characteristic Rainfall for Warning of Debris Flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow.The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase,and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows.Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin,Yunnan Province,in southwestern China,demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall.It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram.The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution.It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin,a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

Big difference in ^87Sr/ ^86Sr ratios of basalt and basin water： higher ^87Sr/ ^86Sr ratios in plagioclase

We analyzed the ^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr ratios of basaltic rocks and basin water in Xuyi,China,and found a big difference,which may challenge conventional wisdom on the contribution of basalt weathering in end-member analysis.Results of an in-house weathering experiment suggest that rainwater and dust are not responsible for the difference.By isolating the major minerals in basalt,we found that plagioclase has much higher ^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr ratios than bulk basalt and basin water,which might explain the difference in ^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr ratios of basalt and basin water.We inferthatlow-temperaturehydrothermalalteration increased the ^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr ratios of plagioclase.Future analyses of end-member contribution in a mixed-rock basin should take into account that basin water and plagioclase have higher ^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr ratios than basaltic rocks.

Study on the Rainfall and Aftershock Threshold for Debris Flow of Post-earthquake

Due to the special condition of provenance and disaster environment after "5·12" Earthquake, the probability and conditions of the occurrence of gully debris flow change greatly after the event, which make it difficult to prevent disaster effectively. In this study the hydrological model of ground water table in loose sediment is established. According to infinite slope theory, the safety factor of deposits is defined as the ratio of resistance force to driving force. The starting condition of post-earthquake gully debris flow is clearly studied by analyzing the effects of rainfall intensity, seismic strength, slope gradient and mechanical properties on the balance of accumulation body. Then the formulas of rainfall and aftershock threshold for starting of gully debris flow are proposed, and an example is given to illustrate the effect of rainfall, aftershocks and their coupling action on a debris flow. The result shows the critical rainfall intensity decreases as the lateral seismic acceleration and channel gradient increases, while the critical intensity linearly increases as the friction angle increases.

FLO-2D Simulation of Mudflow Caused by Large Landslide Due to Extremely Heavy Rainfall in Southeastern Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot

Daniau Village in Daniau Creek Watershed, Taitung County, Taiwan, sustained damages from landslides and mudflows during Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The purpose of this study is to adopt the FLO-2D numerical model recognized by Federal Emergency Management Agency （FEMA） to simulate the mudflow, and the Daniau Village was used as a case study, along with rainfall and digital terrain data for this simulation. On the basis of sediment yields, the residual sediment volume in the landslide area was determined to be 33,276 ma by comparison of digital elevation models （DEMs） and by using the universal soil loss equation （USLE）. In addition, this study performed a hydrological frequency analysis of rainfall to estimate the flow discharge as conditions of the simulation. Results of disaster surveys were collected to compare with outputs of the numerical model. Results of the simulation conducted with FLO- 2D indicated that if the countermeasure was not destroyed, the drainage work would function without overflow. This study aimed to review the effectiveness of eountermeasure on the basis of simulation results obtained by using the model to provide references for future disaster prevention and resident evacuation plans.

Numerical Investigation on the Initiation Mechanism of Debris-Flow under Rainfall

Rainfall is an important factor to trigger the debris flow.Numerical simulation on the responses of slopes and the initiation of debris flow under rainfall was processed by using the software FLAC2D based on the soil parameters in Weijia Gully,Beichuan County,Sichuan Province,China.The effects of the slope angle,rainfall intensity,soil parameters on the developments of the stress and pore pressure and deformation of the slope were studied.It indicates that large displacements of the slope are mainly located near the slope toe.With the increase of the rainfall intensity the stability of the slope decreases and so the debris-flow is easy to occur.

Outlining a stepwise,multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system:an example of application in Aizi Valley,China

In recent years, the increasing frequency of debris flow demands enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of warning systems. Effective warning systems are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. Currently, the key issues are the imbalance between the limited lifespan of equipment, the relatively long period between the recurrences of such hazards, and the wide range of critical rainfall that trigger these disasters. This paper attempts to provide a stepwise multi-parameter debris flow warning system after taking into account the shortcomings observed in other warning systems. The whole system is divided into five stages. Differentwarning levels can be issued based on the critical rainfall thresholds. Monitoring starts when early warning is issued and it continues with debris flow near warning, triggering warning, movement warning and hazard warning stages. For early warning, historical archives of earthquake and drought are used to choose a debris flow-susceptible site for further monitoring. Secondly, weather forecasts provide an alert of possible near warning. Hazardous precipitation, model calculation and debris flow initiation tests, pore pressure sensors and water content sensors are combined to check the critical rainfall and to publically announce a triggering warning. In the final two stages, equipment such as rainfall gauges, flow stage sensors, vibration sensors, low sound sensors and infrasound meters are used to assess movement processes and issue hazardwarnings. In addition to these warnings, communitybased knowledge and information is also obtained and discussed in detail. The proposed stepwise, multiparameter debris flow monitoring and warning system has been applied in Aizi valley China which continuously monitors the debris flow activities.

Effect of rainfall on a colluvial landslide in a debris flow valley

A colluvial landslide in a debris flow valley is a typical phenomena and is easily influenced by rainfall. The direct destructiveness of this kind of landslide is small, however, if failure occurs the resulting blocking of the channel may lead to a series of magnified secondary hazards. For this reason it is important to investigate the potential response of this type of landslide to rainfall. In the present paper, the Goulingping landslide, one of the colluvial landslides in the Goulingping valley in the middle of the Bailong River catchment in Gansu Province, China, was chosen for the study. Electrical Resistivity Tomography(ERT), Terrestrial Laser Scanning(TLS), together with traditional monitoring methods, were used to monitor changes in water content and the deformation of the landslide caused by rainfall. ERT was used to detect changes in soil water content induced by rainfall. The most significant findings were as follows:(1) the water content in the centralupper part(0~41 m) of the landslide was greaterthan in the central-front part(41~84 m) and(2) there was a relatively high resistivity zone at depth within the sliding zone. The deformation characteristics at the surface of the landslide were monitored by TLS and the results revealed that rainstorms caused three types of deformation and failure:(1) gully erosion at the slope surface;(2) shallow sliding failure;(3) and slope foot erosion. Subsequent monitoring of continuous changes in pore-water pressure, soil pressure and displacement(using traditional methods) indicated that long duration light rainfall(average 2.22 mm/d) caused the entire landslide to enter a state of creeping deformation at the beginning of the rainy season. Shear-induced dilation occurred for the fast sliding(30.09 mm/d) during the critical failure sub-phase(EF). Pore-water pressure in the sliding zone was affected by rainfall. In addition, the sliding L1 parts of the landslide exerted a discontinuous pressure on the L2 part. Through the monitoring and analysis, we conclude that this kind of landslide may have large deformation at the beginning and the late of the rainy season.