Preliminary analysis on the interdecadal variation characteristics of typhoon over the Northwestern Pacific in the past sixty years

Using typhoon data over the Northwestern Pacific （NWP） in 60 years （1950-2009）, the interdecadal variations of typhoon frequency, track and intensity are statistically analyzed. The results showed that the frequency of typhoon over the NWP was high in 1960s and low in 1970s. From the late 1990s, the frequency is low again. The track of typhoon was mainly shifting, and the average track was at the southern NWP in 1960s and 1970s, but in recent 10 years, the track was at the northern NWP. The intensity of typhoon was strong in 1950s and 1960s, but becomes weak in recent 25 years. In high frequency periods of typhoon, the subtropical high of NWP was weak and its position appears easternly. The distribution of Sea Surface Temperature （SST） shows characteristics of ＂La Nina＂ event. In low frequency periods of typhoon, the subtropical high of NWP is strong and its position appears westernly. The distribution of SST shows characteristics of ＂El Nino＂ event.

SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDING IN GUANGDONG

Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the evolution regularity of tropical cyclo- nes landing in Guangdong are analyzed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years, and in the west of Pearl River Mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years to the west of Pearl River Mouth. The northwest Pacific that topical cyclones are generated is divided into 8 areas, and the SeaSur- face Temperature (SST) in each area is analyzed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years, and those of the warm pool are 12 and 2 years, respectively. This may be the physical reason for the generation tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) with SSA (SSA- MEM), the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the Pearl River Mouth are force- ast, and the results are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forecast.

Validation of a FFQ （Food Frequency Questionnaire） for Older People

Nutrition data for older adults is an area that has few studies mainly in Brazil. Due to the importance to know the behavior of this age group, the aim of this study was to develop and validate a frequency food questionnaire （FFQ） for older people in Brazil. It was considered a sample of 73 subjects from the city of Avar6, Sao Paulo, Brazil, and it was applied three 24-hour recalls and a FFQ developed for adults. Data from the three 24-hour recalls were transformed in nutrient intake as well as the data from FFQ. Statistical analysis was performed in order to get correlations between data from the mean of three 24-hour recalls and FFQ for some nutrients. It was found high correlations among them, concluding that the FFQ is valid to get nutrient intakes for older people.

Effects of the Amplitude and Frequency of Salinity Fluctuation on the Body Composition and Energy Budget of Juvenile Tongue Sole(Cynoglossus semilaevis)

Effects of the amplitude(± 2, ± 4, ± 6, and ± 8) and frequency(2, 4, and 8 d) of salinity fluctuation on the body composition and energy budget of juvenile tongue sole(Cynoglossus semilaevis) were investigated in a 64-d experiment. Results showed that the amplitude and frequency of salinity fluctuation had significant interaction and both substantially affected the final weight and specific growth rate of juvenile tongue sole. The tongue sole exhibited better growth in treatments with moderate amplitude and frequency of salinity fluctuation(amplitude ± 4–6; frequency 4–8 d) than in other treatments and the control. In terms of energy budget, salinity fluctuation strongly affected the proportions of energy components, including those deposited for growth and lost in respiration, feces, and excretion. Moderately amplitude and frequency of salinity fluctuationg that favored the growth of tongue sole partitioned more energy for growth and less energy for metabolism than the constant and other amplitude and frequency of salinity fluctuation. Average energy budget for tongue sole at moderately fluctuating salinity was determined to be 100C(food) = 30.92G(growth) + 10.30F(feces) + 6.77U(excretion) + 52.01R(respiration). Energetic advantage at moderately fluctuating salinity, including increased energy intake, high assimilation efficiency, reduced metabolism expenditure, and more energy partitioned into growth, might account for the enhancement of tongue sole growth. Commercial farmers are recommended to rear juvenile tongue sole with moderate salinity fluctuations for better growth performance of this species.

The Effect on Sporadic-E of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

In this study, the relationship between the QBO （quasi-biennial oscillation）, which is seen at the equatorial stratosphere, and critical frequency of layer （Es） sporadically observed at the ionospheric E region was analyzed by using multiple regression model. For this analysis, Es layer critical frequency （foEs） obtained from four different stations at equatorial region and QBO measured at 10 hPa altitude values were used. The positive relationship between foEs and QBO was observed at all stations. An increase of 1 m/s at QBO leads to an increase of 0.01 Mhz, 0.02 Mhz, 0.02 Mhz and 0.01 Mhz （Jicamarca, Ascension, Manila and Kwajalein） on foEs, respectively. Expect for Manila station, westerly phase of QBO has greater effect on foEs compared to easterly phase of QBO at all other stations. It is seen that the changes occurred on foEs can be explained by the QBO at rates 47%, 46%, 32% and 44% for Jicamarca, Ascension, Manila and Kwajalein stations, respectively.

Responses of Hydrological Processes to Climate Change in the Zhujiang River Basin in the 21st Century

In this study, discharge at the outlet of Xijiang River, the biggest sub-basin of the Zhujiang River, was simulated and projected from 1961 to 2099 using the hydrological model HBV-D. The model uses precipitation and temperature data from CISRO/MK3 5, MPI/ECHAM5, and NCAR/CCSM3 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1). The results in water resources and flood frequency suggest that annual precipitation and annual runoff would increase after 2050 relative to the reference period of 1961-1990. In addition, increasing trends have been projected in area averaged monthly precipitation and runoff from May to October, while decreasing trends in those from December to February. More often and larger floods would occur in future. Potential increase in runoff during the low-flow season could ease the pressure of water demand until 2030, but the increase in runoff in the high-flow season, with more often and larger floods, more pressure on flood control after 2050 is expected.