论日本作曲家的音乐创作对二胡在当代日本发展的贡献

20世纪80年代以来,中国二胡被越来越多的日本人接受与喜爱。二胡独特的音色,吸引了众多日本音乐家的关注,并投入到二胡作品的创作中。安庆生的《风影》作为日本第一部二胡协奏曲,给日本同行开启了二胡创作的大门;坂本龙一的《The Last Emperor》为二胡在日本乃至世界的传播做出了巨大贡献;加古隆及其创作的优秀二胡作品,使二胡在现代日本音乐界的地位得到进一步肯定。

Evaluation of supply chain default risk based on fuzzy influence diagram

After introducing the supply chain default risk and its causes,based on the literature review of the evaluation methods of supply chain risks,a new evaluation method called the fuzzy influence diagram which combines fuzzy sets with influence diagram theory and considers the interaction among risk factors is proposed.Furthermore,an evaluation model of the supply chain default risk is established based on the research of default risk evaluation and the fuzzy influence diagram.First,the model takes the loss of risk as a valuable node,risk factors as random nodes,drawing a risk analysis influence diagram.Then,three kinds of fuzzy sets are defined,including state fuzzy sets,probabilistic fuzzy sets and a relation fuzzy matrix.Finally,by using the fuzzy algorithm to evaluate nodes,the probability of risk occurrence and the degrees of risk loss are obtained.On the basis of the model,an instance application is used to prove its utility and effectiveness.

A Numerical Study on the Effects of Orography During the Landfall Process of Typhoon Haitang

The landfall process of typhoon Haitang which affected East China seriously was simulated by using the MM5 model and the track, intensity, precipitation and structure of typhoon were successfully reproduced. Then through the sensitive test, the effects of terrain were analyzed Results show that the irregular track during the period of typhoon passing through Taiwan and later landfalling at Fujian was in relation to the occurring and developing of orthographic impressed depression. The amount of rainfall was enhanced more than one time and the strength of typhoon was weakened 4 to 5 hPa. It is found that the effect of terrain on the structure of typhoon is limited at low level and is backward in space compared with the one at high level. In addition, the phenomenon that the equivalent temperature in the typhoon＇s moving direction inclines to the west on the eye of landfall may be concerned with the terrain.

A Fuzzy Probabilistic Influence Diagram Method to Assess Marine Configuration Risk

A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.

Tracking typhoon-generated swell in the western North Pacific Ocean using satellite altimetry

This paper proposes a scheme for detecting the swell decay of a moving typhoon. We considered a typhoon that was neither far from a point source nor had a belt-like homogenous source,as previously studied. We tracked the swell close to the source during a typhoon in the western North Pacific Ocean. We used wind speed and significant wave height data derived from the Geophysical Data Record of the Jason-1 altimeter and the best-track information of the typhoon from the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database. We selected three specific cases to reveal the decay characteristics of the swell generated by a moving typhoon. Based on an altimeter-based typhoon swell identification scheme and the dispersion relationship for deep water,we relocated the swell source for each altimeter measurement. The subsequent statistical decay coefficient was comparable to previous studies,and effectively depicted the swell propagation conditions induced by the typhoon. We hope that our results provide a new understanding of the characteristics and wave energy budget of the North Pacific Ocean,and significantly contribute to wave modeling in this region.

INVESTIGATION ON DRYING CHARACTERISTIC OF MEDICAL PILL USING MICROWAVE-CONVECTIVE DRYING

The combined microwave-convective drying is a novel drying method and has many advantages, such as swift drying, equable drying and sterilization. This paper studies the drying characteristic of medical pill in microwave-convective drying process. The influential parameters of pill drying characteristics including pill size, quality, air velocity, temperature and the input power of microwave, are experimentally investigated. Results show that the drying process is influenced by the intrinsic heat of microwave power, and the environment and the resistance of mass transfer. It has the advantage of the microwave-convective drying in saving energy, reducing labor intensity and sterilizing. The method with the high efficiency is suitable for pharmacy industry.

Time-varying impact of political risk on copper prices

Using the International Country Risk Guide(ICRG)index to represent countries’political risk,the time-varying effect of political risk on copper prices was examined based on the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model.The empirical results show that the impact of political risk on copper prices is time-varying and has tended to increase gradually in recent years.There are significant country-level differences in the impact of political risk on copper prices.Political risk has a stronger and longer-lasting impact on copper prices in exporting countries.In terms of risk sources,external and internal conflicts contribute most to international copper price fluctuations in the sample period.The impact of political risk on copper prices reaches an extreme level during the international financial crisis,the European debt crisis,and the election of Donald Trump.

Acute coronary syndromes： an old age problem

The increasing population in older age will lead to greater numbers of them presenting with acute coronary syndromes （ACS）. This has implications on global healthcare resources and necessitates better management and selection for evidenced-based therapies. The elderly are a high risk group with more significant treatment benefits than younger ACS. Nevertheless, age related inequalities in ACS care are recognised and persist. This discrepancy in care, to some extent, is explained by the higher frequency of atypical and delayed presentations in the elderly, and less diagnostic electrocardiograms at presentation, potentiating a delay in ACS diagnosis. Under estimation of mortality risk in the elderly due to limited consideration for physiological tiailty, co-morbidity, cognitive/psychological impairment and physical disability, less input by cardiology specialists and lack of randomised, controlled trials data to guide management in the elderly may further confound the inequality of care. While these inequalities exist, there remains a substantial opportunity to improve age related ACS outcomes. The selection of elderly patients for specific therapies and medication regimens are unanswered. There is a growing need for randomised, controlled trial data to be more representative of the population and enroll those of advanced age with co-morbidity. A lack of reporting of adverse events, such as renal impairment post coronary angiography, in the elderly further limit risk benefit decisions. Substantial improvements in care of elderly ACS patients are required and should be advocated. Ultimately, these improvements are likely to lead to better outcomes post ACS. However, the improvement in outcome is not infinite and will be limited by non-modifiable factors of age-related risk.

Hyper-real Narratives： The Emergence of Contemporary Film Subgenres

The scope of this paper is to investigate a number of emerging contemporary popular subgenres, namely that of ＂mumblecore film＂, the ＂best-worst film＂ and ＂the gonzo documentary＂. Unlike historical cinematic movements, these subgenres are the result of our techocentric culture and commercialism. In this respect these subgenres are less motivated by a collective ideology, but rather a cultural phenomenon resulting from increased access to popular culture, hypermedia devices, social media, and new marketing techniques. This paper investigates the displacement of traditional models of temporality through the metamorphosis of today＇s audiovisual culture, outlining the subject＇s embodiment of voyeurism and exhibitionism, ushering in a hyper-real era of self-myth making and consumption.

IMPROVED ANALYSES AND FORECASTS WITH AIRS TEMPERATURE RETRIEVALS USING THE LOCAL ENSEMBLE TRANSFORM KALMAN FILTER

In this paper we investigate the impact of the Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals on data assimilation and the resulting forecasts using the four-dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation scheme and a reduced resolution version of the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS).Our results indicate that the AIRS temperature retrievals have a significant and consistent positive impact in the Southern Hemispheric extratropics on both analyses and forecasts,which is found not only in the temperature field but also in other variables.In tropics and the Northern Hemispheric extratropics these impacts are smaller,but are still generally positive or neutral.

The Numerical Simulation of Storm-Surge and Coastal Flooding in Western Taiwan： A Case Study of 2007 Typhoon SEPAT

A numerical model for simulating storm surge with nested grid system has been applied to hindcast the coastal flooding on both sides of Taiwan Strait. The simulation results can be used to understand the transport variation and the inundation distribution induced by the storm surge on the interested area during typhoon invades. The case in this study is Typhoon SEPAT, which passed through central Taiwan in 2007. The transport characteristics through Taiwan Strait under the influence of Typhoon SEPAT were discussed by comparing the field observations and numerical simulations during the typhoon period. The results indicate that the surge height of Typhoon SEPAT did not respond to the peak of wind waves accompanied with 15 hrs time lag. According to the influence of dynamical forces on the storm surge in Taiwan Strait, the onshore wind is the dominant role of coastal inundation during this typhoon event in Taiwan Strait. By observing the inundation map through the typhoon period, the coasts of Yulin County are verified to be the most serious affected area in the vicinity of Taiwan Strait.

The inter-annual variability of the Yellow Sea Warm Current surface axis and its influencing factors

Based on the Pathfinder sea surface temperature(PFSST),the surface axis and its pattern of the Yellow Sea Warm Current(YSWC) are discussed.A structure of double-warm-tongue is found in February and it varies in different years.Two indexes are calculated to represent the westward shift(WSI) and northward extension(NEI) of the warm water in the Yellow Sea(YS).Wavelet analysis illustrates that the WSI and NEI have prominent periods of 3-6 years and 3-4 years,respectively.The Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) decomposition is applied to the winter wind stress curl and the Kuroshio Current(KC) transport,which are believed to play important roles in forcing the variability of the YSWC surface axis.Statistics shows that the WSI is significantly related with the second EOF mode of the wind stress curl in February,which may force the YSWC surface axis moving westward and maintaining the double warm tongues because of its opposite curl in the YSWC domain.The first EOF mode of wind stress curl in January is propitious for inducing the warm tongue in the YS to advance more northward.Hence,the wind stress curls both in January and in February could force variations of the YSWC surface axis;however,the effect of the January wind stress curl is relatively weaker than that of the February.The relationship between the NEI and the KC transport is remarkable,and it seems that the stronger KC supplies more power to push the YSWC northward against the southward wind.

Software architecture based software deployment reliability estimation considering architectural style

Software today often consists of a large number of components offering and requiring services. Such components should be deployed into embedded, pervasive environments, and several deployment architectures are typically possible. These deployment architectures can have significant impacts on system reliability. However, existing reliability estimation approaches are typically limited to certain classes or exclusively concentrate on software reliability, neglecting the influence of hardware resources, software deployment and architectural styles. The selection of an appropriate architectural style has a significant impact on system reliability of the target system. Therefore, we propose a novel software architecture （SA） based reliability estimation model incorporating software deployment and architectural style. On the basis of two architectural styles, we design influence factors and present a new approach to calculate system reliability. Experimental results show that influence factors provide an accurate and simple method of reflecting architectural styles and software deployment on system reliability. It is important for considering the influence of other architectural styles on system reliability in large scale deployment environment.

Influential Factors of Bucket Foundation for Offshore Wind Turbine

In this paper, the influential design thctors of wide-shallow composite bucket foundation for 3 MW off- shore wind turbine are systematically studied by numerical simulation. The results show that the bucket diameter is larger than 27 m in generak and the range of 7--12 m is appropriate for cylinder height. In particular the bucket foun- dation with diameter of 30 m and cylinder height of 10 m is suitable for most soils. Under ultimate loads, the bucket diameter and elasticity modulus of soil have major effects on the deibrmability of bucket foundation, while the influ- ence of friction coefficient between the bucket and soil is relatively slight.

Assessment of Rill Erosion Development during Erosive Storms at Angereb Watershed, Lake Tana Sub-basin in Ethiopia

Application of simple and locally based erosion assessment methods that fit to the local condition is necessary to improve the performance and efficiency of soil conservation practices. In this study, rill erosion formation and development was investigated on the topo-sequence of three catchments （300-500 m slope length）; and on agricultural fields （6 m and 24 m slope lengths） with different crop-tillage surfaces during erosive storms. Rill density and rill erosion rates were measured using rill cross section survey and close range digital photogrammetry. Rill formation and development was commonly observed on conditions where there is wider terrace spacing, concave slope shapes and unstable stone terraces on steep slopes. At field plot level, rill development was controlled by the distribution and abrupt change in the soil surface roughness and extent of slope length. At catchment scale, however, rill formation and development was controlled by landscape structures, and concavity and convexity of the slope. Greater rill cross sections and many small local rills were associated to the rougher soil surfaces. For instance, relative comparison of crop tillage practices have showed that faba-bean tillage management was more susceptible to seasonal rill erosion followed by Teff and wheat tillage surfaces under no cover condition. Surface roughness and landscape structures played a net decreasing effect on the parallel rill network development. This implies that spatial and temporal variability of the rill prone areas was strongly associated with the nature and initial size of surface micro-topography or tillage roughness. Thus, it is necessary to account land management practices, detail micro-topographic surfaces and landscape structures for improved prediction of rill prone areas under complex topographic conditions. Application of both direct rill cross section survey and close range digital photogrammetric techniques could enhance field erosion assessment for practical soil conservation improvement.

Distribution of rare earth elements of granitic regolith under the influence of climate

The distribution and anomalies of rare earth elements(REEs) of granitic regolith were studied in Inner Mongolia and Hainan Island, China. One profile showed slight REE enrichment of an upper layer and no obvious light REE/heavy REE(LREE/HREE) fractionation(La_N/Yb_N of 0.9). The second profile was significantly enriched in REEs and enriched in LREEs in the upper portion(La_N/Yb_N>1.8). Eu, Ce, and Gd anomalies of the two profiles are different. Slightly negative Eu, Ce, and Gd anomalies in NMG-3-1 indicate slow dissolution of primary minerals and little secondary products; in contrast, a positive Eu anomaly in HN-2 suggests the vegetation cycle may contribute to soil. The Ce anomaly of HN-2 reflects oxidation of Ce and coprecipitation by Fe-and Mn-oxides and organic matter. Correlation between Ce and Gd anomalies in HN-2 suggests Ce and Gd are both influenced by redoxreduction.

The Embodiment of American Elements In Oriental Story of Kung Fu Panda

This thesis aims at the study of the American elements in oriental story Kung Fu Panda which was made by DreamWorks of Hollywood. Firstly, the thesis shows what the basic classic American characteristics are and the definition of American Dream, as well as some basic study on Hollywood＇s operation of movies. Then, it analyzes the above traits in Kung Fu Panda, the embodiment of American elements in Kung Fu Panda and the recipe for Hollywood＇s manufacturing success. At last, based on the analyses which have been pointed out, this thesis tries to arrive at the conclusion that although with an oriental-story setting, Kung Fu Panda is still American-styled and at the same time, this thesis gives some suggestive strategies that can help Chinese movie industry step out of the awkward situation.

Shadow Banking Credit Intermediation： Determinants of Default Risks in Securitization and Collateralization

The growth in shadow banking system over the past few years is acknowledged as the key risk to Malaysia＇s financial stability. This is because that it is associated with growth in the household debts extended by the shadow banks. In line with initiatives by the Bank Negara Malaysia （the Central Bank of Malaysia） to enhance surveillance on the activities of the shadow banks in Malaysia, this study attempts to examine the determinants of default risks of shadow banks restricting to focus on their two main activities： securitization and collateralization. The results provide empirical evidence that future methodology to examine the systemic risks in the shadow banking system may need to account for additional explanatory variables that measure collateralized assets that are being intermediated.

The Story Behind the Images:Photographer Li Shaobai and His “Invisible Series”

My camera lens is so illusionary that the authenticity of the Forbidden City is fading away. And my perspective is as narrow as an awl which slowly stings into the profundity of history... —Li

Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

AIM:To evaluate the incidence of contrast-induced nephropathy(CIN)in cirrhotic patients and to identify risk factors for the development of CIN.METHODS:We performed a retrospective review of 216 consecutive patients with cirrhosis who underwent computed tomography(CT)with intravenous contrast at the University of Rochester between the years 2000-2005.We retrospectively examined factors associated with a high risk for CIN,defined as a decrease in creatinine clearance of 25%or greater within one week after receiving contrast.RESULTS:Twenty-five percent of our patients developed CIN,and 74%of these patients had ascites seen on CT.Of the 75%of patients who did not develop CIN,only 46%had ascites.The presence of ascites was a significant risk factor for the development of CIN(P=0.0009,OR 3.38,95%CI 1.55-7.34)in multivariate analysis.Patient age,serum sodium,Model for End-stage Liver Disease score,diuretic use,and the presence of diabetes were not found to be significant risk factors for the development of CIN.Of the patients who developed CIN,11%developed chronic renal insufficiency,defined as a creatinine clearance less than baseline for 6 wk.CONCLUSION:Our results suggest that in hospitalized cirrhotic patients,especially those with ascites,the risk of CIN is substantial.