乡村数字治理是数智时代下乡村数字化转型的新产物,是推进乡村基层治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要抓手,而“三区三州”地区自然条件差、经济基础弱,也是乡村振兴的“最后一公里”。本文从嵌入理论视角出发,以乡村数字治理路径为切入点...乡村数字治理是数智时代下乡村数字化转型的新产物,是推进乡村基层治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要抓手,而“三区三州”地区自然条件差、经济基础弱,也是乡村振兴的“最后一公里”。本文从嵌入理论视角出发,以乡村数字治理路径为切入点,选取阿坝州红原县为研究蓝本,研究其乡村数字治理的发展现状,深入分析目前乡村数字治理的困境挑战及其原因,从资源技术嵌入、行政行为嵌入、治理主体嵌入、乡土情感嵌入等层面重塑乡村数字治理基本框架,促进乡村内部各要素在不同层次和维度上的结构性优化和重组,提出数字技术深度嵌入乡村治理场域的实践路径,总结经验共性,从而为“三区三州”跨越数字鸿沟提供理论启示和经验借鉴,促进“三区三州”乡村治理数字化转型更为均衡普惠。Rural digital governance is a new product of rural digital transformation in the era of digital intelligence, and an important starting point to promote the modernization of rural grass-roots governance system and governance capacity, while the “three districts and three states” area has poor natural conditions and weak economic foundation, and is also the “last kilometer” of rural revitalization. From the perspective of embedding theory, this paper takes the path of rural digital governance as the starting point, chooses Hongyuan County of Aba Prefecture as the research blueprint, studies the development status of rural digital governance, and deeply analyzes the current difficulties and challenges of rural digital governance and their causes. Reshape the basic framework of rural digital governance from the perspectives of resource technology embedment, administrative behavior embedment, governance subject embedment and local emotion embedment, promote the structural optimization and reorganization of various elements in rural interior at different levels and dimensions, propose a practical path for digital technology to deeply embed rural governance field, and summarize the common experience. Thus, it can provide theoretical inspiration and experience reference for “three regions and three states” to cross the digital divide, and promote the digital transformation of “three regions and three states” rural governance to be more balanced and inclusive.展开更多
Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region involved in this paper refers to the source region of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River, the Huanghe (Yellow) River and the Lancang River in China. Taking the TRH region of the Q...Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region involved in this paper refers to the source region of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River, the Huanghe (Yellow) River and the Lancang River in China. Taking the TRH region of the Qing- hai-Tibet Plateau as a case, the annual evapotranspiration (ET) model developed by Zhang et al. (2001) was applied to evaluate mean annual ET in the alpine area, and the response of annual ET to land use change was analyzed. The plant-available water coefficient (w) of Zhang's model was revised by using vegetation-temperature condition index (VTCI) before annual ET was calculated in alpine area. The future land use scenario, an input of ET model, was spa- tially simulated by using the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) to study the re- sponse of ET to land use change. Results show that the relative errors between the simulated ET and that calculated by using water balance equation were 3.81% and the index of agreement was 0.69. This indicates that Zhang's ET model based on revised plant-available water coefficient is a scientific and practical tool to estimate the annual ET in the al- pine area. The annual ET in 2000 in the study area was 221.2 ram, 11.6 mm more than that in 1980. Average annual ET decreased from southeast to northwest, but the change of annual ET between 1980 and 2000 increased from southeast to northwest. As a vast and sparsely populated area, the population in the TRH region was extremely unbalanced and land use change was concentrated in very small regions. Thus, land use change had little effect on total annual ET in the study area but a great impact on its spatial distribution, and the effect of land use change on ET decreased with in- creasing precipitation. ET was most sensitive to the interconversion between forest and unused land, and was least sen- sitive to the interconversion between cropland and low-covered grassland.展开更多
China is entering a critical and accelerating phase of urbanization.As one of the most urbanized regions in China,the Changjiang(Yangtze)River Delta has experienced dramatic urbanization and urban transformation.Howev...China is entering a critical and accelerating phase of urbanization.As one of the most urbanized regions in China,the Changjiang(Yangtze)River Delta has experienced dramatic urbanization and urban transformation.However,in the recent years,many changes have taken place in this region and there is limited attention to the regional urbanization path evolution,its problems and the way to solve these problems.Therefore,we should revisit the urbanization process in the Changjiang River Delta again.In this paper,we revisited urbanization paths of the Changjiang River Delta by data analysis,influence factors of urbanization by the Gray Relational Analysis,and major challenges to urbanization of the Changjiang River Delta by theoretical considerations.We found that the urbanization of the Changjiang River Delta had experienced several stages of large-scale spatial and urban system restructuring.Within the Changjiang River Delta,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Jiangshu had experienced different urbanization path with local characteristics.But with their development model gradually converging,their urbanization model is also converging.We also found that the major influence factors affecting the Changjiang River Delta urbanization were dynamic change and urbanization was driven by different key factors in different socio-economic development stages.Meanwhile,the Changjiang River Delta urbanization is facing many problems such as existing institutional arrangements,including the hukou(household registration)system and others which can not meet the needs of current socioeconomic development and urbanization.Therefore,it is imperative to promote institutional innovation and adopt a new urbanization development strategy for the sake of the orderly and sustainable urbanization development in the Changjiang River Delta.展开更多
The eco-environment and the condition of economic development in the Three Gorges area were evaluated with emergy indices calculated with the statistic data of the years from 1997 to 2005. The rising environmental loa...The eco-environment and the condition of economic development in the Three Gorges area were evaluated with emergy indices calculated with the statistic data of the years from 1997 to 2005. The rising environmental loading ratio indicates an increasing pressure of economic activities on the environment and the economic development achieved at the cost of over-exploitation of resources and environment deterioration. The net emergy yield ratio implies that the economic system of this area was a self-contained, resource-export-oriented type at a relatively low level of technology. The emergy sustainability index of about 6 implies the economy of this area was under developed but had a potential to grow. According to the results of the emergy analysis, circular economy should be taken as the economic model of this region's development. This economic system should be water-resource-oriented and more open, make combined use of local and extraneous resources, and have an updated systematic structure with emphasis on emergy recirculation.展开更多
Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier m...Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.展开更多
The level-trench method is a traditional tillage operation to develop a drainage system on slope land in the Three Gorges region. Before crops are planted, farmers prepare the land with level trenches spaced 3-1o m ap...The level-trench method is a traditional tillage operation to develop a drainage system on slope land in the Three Gorges region. Before crops are planted, farmers prepare the land with level trenches spaced 3-1o m apart, depending on the slope gradient: steeper slopes require shorter distances. Little scientific analysis has been done on the use of traditional level trenches for soil conservation. We conducted a field investigation and simulation experiments, and present a comparison between the spacing of level trenches and the slope length required for rill initiation. The results indicate that the spacing of level trenches in farmland is close to the slope length required for rill initiation in the experimental plots, and regression models of trench spacing with the gradient and the slope length required for rill initiation with the gradient have similar formats; the coefficients of determination (R2) for the two equations are 0.99 and 0.88, respectively. There were some differences between the field survey and experiments, but we conclude that the traditional level-trench method has an important role in preventing rill initiation.展开更多
Based on the satellite data from the Climate Prediction Center morphing(CMORPH) at very high spatial and temporal resolution, the effects of urbanization on precipitation were assessed over the Pearl River Delta(PRD) ...Based on the satellite data from the Climate Prediction Center morphing(CMORPH) at very high spatial and temporal resolution, the effects of urbanization on precipitation were assessed over the Pearl River Delta(PRD) metropolitan regions of China. CMORPH data well estimates the precipitation features over the PRD. Compared to the surrounding rural areas, the PRD urban areas experience fewer and shorter precipitation events with a lower precipitation frequency(ratio of rainy hours, about 3 days per year less); however, short-duration heavy rain events play a more significant role over the PRD urban areas. Afternoon precipitation is much more pronounced over the PRD urban areas than the surrounding rural areas, which is probably because of the increase in short-duration heavy rain over urban areas.展开更多
The Three Gorgers' Region (TGR) is an economic region of China, and lies in the western part of Yangtze economic belt. It takes the Three Gorges Project as leading. Chongqing and Yichang City as main body, the Thre...The Three Gorgers' Region (TGR) is an economic region of China, and lies in the western part of Yangtze economic belt. It takes the Three Gorges Project as leading. Chongqing and Yichang City as main body, the Three Gorges Reservoir as ligament. It covers about 700 km of the Yangtze River valley from Chongqing to Yichang, including Chongqing City, Yichang City and Enshi District of Hubei Province. Since the construction of Three Gorges Project and establishment of Chongqing as municipality directly under the Central Government. the regional economy, culture, education, technology, etc., all developed harmoniously and rapidly, and the diathesis of the rgional human resources also got an exaltation. While compared with the eastern region of China. the economy, science and technology in this region still fall behind, and the current situation is of no optimism. Based on the theory of human resources development, this paper analyzes current situation and problems in the human resources development oJ the TGR, and puts forward the countermeasures such as planning human resources development program based on "anaphase support"policy,developing echucation and training husiness,reasonably organizing labor export,etc.展开更多
This paper reports some results of geo-scientific evaluation of the petroleum systems in the northeastern area of the Song Hong Basin offshore Vietnam. Geological-geophysical data, including regional studies, 2D and 3...This paper reports some results of geo-scientific evaluation of the petroleum systems in the northeastern area of the Song Hong Basin offshore Vietnam. Geological-geophysical data, including regional studies, 2D and 3D seismic & logging interpretation results as well as core/cutting samples analysis were integrated to reveals that the north-eastern area were controlled by pull apart activities along Song Hong river fault system, rifting phase during Eocene-Oligocene and subsidence during Miocene-Quaternary. Inversion activities at the end of Oligocene and late Miocene also play very important roles. These activities convert Pre-tertiary carbonate basement rocks to be potential reservoirs. The main source rock, overlying and adjacent to basement highs, was deposited in the lacustrine environment during rifting phase of Eocene and Oligocene and is still at the depth of oil generation window. The mentioned source rock layer is also considered as a good top seal for the basement. Petroleum system has been proven by the drilling and testing results and the studied area become more attractive and have higher chance of success.展开更多
The aim of this study was to explore the spatial distribution and submerged scope for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta(PRD) region.Based on the data of storm surges in the PRD region in the past 30 years,the retur...The aim of this study was to explore the spatial distribution and submerged scope for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta(PRD) region.Based on the data of storm surges in the PRD region in the past 30 years,the return periods of 12 tide-gauge stations for storm surges were calculated separately with the methods of Gumbel and Pearson-III.The data of another six tide-gauge stations in Guangdong Coast was quoted to depict the overall features of storm surges in Guangdong.Using least-square method,the spatial distribution models of storm surges in different return periods were established to reveal the distribution rule of the set-up values of storm surges.The spatial distribution curves of storm surges in different return periods in the PRD Region were drawn up based on the models and the terrain of Guangdong Coast.According to the curves,the extreme set-up values of storm surges in 1 000,100,10 a return periods were determined on each spot of Guangdong Coast.Applying the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS,with the topography data of the PRD Region,the submerged scopes of flood caused by storm surge in 1 000,100,10 a return periods were drawn up.The loss caused by storm surges was estimated.Results showed that the storm surges and the topography of PRD region jointly led to the serious flood in the PRD region.This assessment would be useful for the planning and design department to make decision and provide government scientific basis for storm surge prediction,coastal engineering designing and the prevention of storm surge disaster.展开更多
Based on the 16 central cities' Panel Data in Yangtze River Delta, location quotient index is used in this paper to measure and analyze the current cluster situation of producer services in Yangtze River Delta, fixed...Based on the 16 central cities' Panel Data in Yangtze River Delta, location quotient index is used in this paper to measure and analyze the current cluster situation of producer services in Yangtze River Delta, fixed effects model of Panel Data model is also used in this paper, and the industrial structure is taken as the dependent variable, while the core explanatory variables is the degree of producer services' cluster development, which is calculated by location quotient, moreover, three control variables introduced in this paper and they are technology advantage, education level and R&D spending, and the mentioned above is to empirically study the impacts of producer services' cluster development to the regional industrial structure. As a result, producer services' cluster development has a significant positive role in promoting the regional industrial structure optimization and upgrading, though the extent is not yet a big push and is still to be further strengthened. In this paper, it has provided a strong evidence that under China' s new normal economy, producer services is badly needed to promote regional industrial structure, and finally it makes specific suggestions based on the current cluster situation of producer services in Yangtze River Delta.展开更多
文摘乡村数字治理是数智时代下乡村数字化转型的新产物,是推进乡村基层治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要抓手,而“三区三州”地区自然条件差、经济基础弱,也是乡村振兴的“最后一公里”。本文从嵌入理论视角出发,以乡村数字治理路径为切入点,选取阿坝州红原县为研究蓝本,研究其乡村数字治理的发展现状,深入分析目前乡村数字治理的困境挑战及其原因,从资源技术嵌入、行政行为嵌入、治理主体嵌入、乡土情感嵌入等层面重塑乡村数字治理基本框架,促进乡村内部各要素在不同层次和维度上的结构性优化和重组,提出数字技术深度嵌入乡村治理场域的实践路径,总结经验共性,从而为“三区三州”跨越数字鸿沟提供理论启示和经验借鉴,促进“三区三州”乡村治理数字化转型更为均衡普惠。Rural digital governance is a new product of rural digital transformation in the era of digital intelligence, and an important starting point to promote the modernization of rural grass-roots governance system and governance capacity, while the “three districts and three states” area has poor natural conditions and weak economic foundation, and is also the “last kilometer” of rural revitalization. From the perspective of embedding theory, this paper takes the path of rural digital governance as the starting point, chooses Hongyuan County of Aba Prefecture as the research blueprint, studies the development status of rural digital governance, and deeply analyzes the current difficulties and challenges of rural digital governance and their causes. Reshape the basic framework of rural digital governance from the perspectives of resource technology embedment, administrative behavior embedment, governance subject embedment and local emotion embedment, promote the structural optimization and reorganization of various elements in rural interior at different levels and dimensions, propose a practical path for digital technology to deeply embed rural governance field, and summarize the common experience. Thus, it can provide theoretical inspiration and experience reference for “three regions and three states” to cross the digital divide, and promote the digital transformation of “three regions and three states” rural governance to be more balanced and inclusive.
基金Under the auspices of Supporting Program of the 'Eleventh Five-year Plan' for Science and Technology Research of China (No. 2009BAC61B02)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (No. 20100470561)
文摘Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region involved in this paper refers to the source region of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River, the Huanghe (Yellow) River and the Lancang River in China. Taking the TRH region of the Qing- hai-Tibet Plateau as a case, the annual evapotranspiration (ET) model developed by Zhang et al. (2001) was applied to evaluate mean annual ET in the alpine area, and the response of annual ET to land use change was analyzed. The plant-available water coefficient (w) of Zhang's model was revised by using vegetation-temperature condition index (VTCI) before annual ET was calculated in alpine area. The future land use scenario, an input of ET model, was spa- tially simulated by using the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) to study the re- sponse of ET to land use change. Results show that the relative errors between the simulated ET and that calculated by using water balance equation were 3.81% and the index of agreement was 0.69. This indicates that Zhang's ET model based on revised plant-available water coefficient is a scientific and practical tool to estimate the annual ET in the al- pine area. The annual ET in 2000 in the study area was 221.2 ram, 11.6 mm more than that in 1980. Average annual ET decreased from southeast to northwest, but the change of annual ET between 1980 and 2000 increased from southeast to northwest. As a vast and sparsely populated area, the population in the TRH region was extremely unbalanced and land use change was concentrated in very small regions. Thus, land use change had little effect on total annual ET in the study area but a great impact on its spatial distribution, and the effect of land use change on ET decreased with in- creasing precipitation. ET was most sensitive to the interconversion between forest and unused land, and was least sen- sitive to the interconversion between cropland and low-covered grassland.
基金Under the auspices of National Social Science Project(No.08BJY048:11CRK005)Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education(No.11YJA630176)
文摘China is entering a critical and accelerating phase of urbanization.As one of the most urbanized regions in China,the Changjiang(Yangtze)River Delta has experienced dramatic urbanization and urban transformation.However,in the recent years,many changes have taken place in this region and there is limited attention to the regional urbanization path evolution,its problems and the way to solve these problems.Therefore,we should revisit the urbanization process in the Changjiang River Delta again.In this paper,we revisited urbanization paths of the Changjiang River Delta by data analysis,influence factors of urbanization by the Gray Relational Analysis,and major challenges to urbanization of the Changjiang River Delta by theoretical considerations.We found that the urbanization of the Changjiang River Delta had experienced several stages of large-scale spatial and urban system restructuring.Within the Changjiang River Delta,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Jiangshu had experienced different urbanization path with local characteristics.But with their development model gradually converging,their urbanization model is also converging.We also found that the major influence factors affecting the Changjiang River Delta urbanization were dynamic change and urbanization was driven by different key factors in different socio-economic development stages.Meanwhile,the Changjiang River Delta urbanization is facing many problems such as existing institutional arrangements,including the hukou(household registration)system and others which can not meet the needs of current socioeconomic development and urbanization.Therefore,it is imperative to promote institutional innovation and adopt a new urbanization development strategy for the sake of the orderly and sustainable urbanization development in the Changjiang River Delta.
文摘The eco-environment and the condition of economic development in the Three Gorges area were evaluated with emergy indices calculated with the statistic data of the years from 1997 to 2005. The rising environmental loading ratio indicates an increasing pressure of economic activities on the environment and the economic development achieved at the cost of over-exploitation of resources and environment deterioration. The net emergy yield ratio implies that the economic system of this area was a self-contained, resource-export-oriented type at a relatively low level of technology. The emergy sustainability index of about 6 implies the economy of this area was under developed but had a potential to grow. According to the results of the emergy analysis, circular economy should be taken as the economic model of this region's development. This economic system should be water-resource-oriented and more open, make combined use of local and extraneous resources, and have an updated systematic structure with emphasis on emergy recirculation.
基金supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program(No.2007BAC03A06)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)project(No.40976006)+2 种基金the National Marine Public Welfare Research Project of China(No.201005019)Key Laboratory Project(Key Laboratory of Coastal Disasters and Defence,Ministry of Education,No.200808)Laboratory of Coastal Disasters and Defence,Ministry of Education)(No.200802)
文摘Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No.2011BAD31B03)the Ministry of Environment of China (Grant No.2009ZX07104-002-06)
文摘The level-trench method is a traditional tillage operation to develop a drainage system on slope land in the Three Gorges region. Before crops are planted, farmers prepare the land with level trenches spaced 3-1o m apart, depending on the slope gradient: steeper slopes require shorter distances. Little scientific analysis has been done on the use of traditional level trenches for soil conservation. We conducted a field investigation and simulation experiments, and present a comparison between the spacing of level trenches and the slope length required for rill initiation. The results indicate that the spacing of level trenches in farmland is close to the slope length required for rill initiation in the experimental plots, and regression models of trench spacing with the gradient and the slope length required for rill initiation with the gradient have similar formats; the coefficients of determination (R2) for the two equations are 0.99 and 0.88, respectively. There were some differences between the field survey and experiments, but we conclude that the traditional level-trench method has an important role in preventing rill initiation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41375050)
文摘Based on the satellite data from the Climate Prediction Center morphing(CMORPH) at very high spatial and temporal resolution, the effects of urbanization on precipitation were assessed over the Pearl River Delta(PRD) metropolitan regions of China. CMORPH data well estimates the precipitation features over the PRD. Compared to the surrounding rural areas, the PRD urban areas experience fewer and shorter precipitation events with a lower precipitation frequency(ratio of rainy hours, about 3 days per year less); however, short-duration heavy rain events play a more significant role over the PRD urban areas. Afternoon precipitation is much more pronounced over the PRD urban areas than the surrounding rural areas, which is probably because of the increase in short-duration heavy rain over urban areas.
基金Education Department of Hubei Province (Grant No. 2006Y143): Research on Education and Training System and Its Mecha-nism for the Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor of Hu-bei Province
文摘The Three Gorgers' Region (TGR) is an economic region of China, and lies in the western part of Yangtze economic belt. It takes the Three Gorges Project as leading. Chongqing and Yichang City as main body, the Three Gorges Reservoir as ligament. It covers about 700 km of the Yangtze River valley from Chongqing to Yichang, including Chongqing City, Yichang City and Enshi District of Hubei Province. Since the construction of Three Gorges Project and establishment of Chongqing as municipality directly under the Central Government. the regional economy, culture, education, technology, etc., all developed harmoniously and rapidly, and the diathesis of the rgional human resources also got an exaltation. While compared with the eastern region of China. the economy, science and technology in this region still fall behind, and the current situation is of no optimism. Based on the theory of human resources development, this paper analyzes current situation and problems in the human resources development oJ the TGR, and puts forward the countermeasures such as planning human resources development program based on "anaphase support"policy,developing echucation and training husiness,reasonably organizing labor export,etc.
文摘This paper reports some results of geo-scientific evaluation of the petroleum systems in the northeastern area of the Song Hong Basin offshore Vietnam. Geological-geophysical data, including regional studies, 2D and 3D seismic & logging interpretation results as well as core/cutting samples analysis were integrated to reveals that the north-eastern area were controlled by pull apart activities along Song Hong river fault system, rifting phase during Eocene-Oligocene and subsidence during Miocene-Quaternary. Inversion activities at the end of Oligocene and late Miocene also play very important roles. These activities convert Pre-tertiary carbonate basement rocks to be potential reservoirs. The main source rock, overlying and adjacent to basement highs, was deposited in the lacustrine environment during rifting phase of Eocene and Oligocene and is still at the depth of oil generation window. The mentioned source rock layer is also considered as a good top seal for the basement. Petroleum system has been proven by the drilling and testing results and the studied area become more attractive and have higher chance of success.
基金Supported by National Key Technology R&D Program of China(2006BAD20B05)
文摘The aim of this study was to explore the spatial distribution and submerged scope for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta(PRD) region.Based on the data of storm surges in the PRD region in the past 30 years,the return periods of 12 tide-gauge stations for storm surges were calculated separately with the methods of Gumbel and Pearson-III.The data of another six tide-gauge stations in Guangdong Coast was quoted to depict the overall features of storm surges in Guangdong.Using least-square method,the spatial distribution models of storm surges in different return periods were established to reveal the distribution rule of the set-up values of storm surges.The spatial distribution curves of storm surges in different return periods in the PRD Region were drawn up based on the models and the terrain of Guangdong Coast.According to the curves,the extreme set-up values of storm surges in 1 000,100,10 a return periods were determined on each spot of Guangdong Coast.Applying the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS,with the topography data of the PRD Region,the submerged scopes of flood caused by storm surge in 1 000,100,10 a return periods were drawn up.The loss caused by storm surges was estimated.Results showed that the storm surges and the topography of PRD region jointly led to the serious flood in the PRD region.This assessment would be useful for the planning and design department to make decision and provide government scientific basis for storm surge prediction,coastal engineering designing and the prevention of storm surge disaster.
文摘Based on the 16 central cities' Panel Data in Yangtze River Delta, location quotient index is used in this paper to measure and analyze the current cluster situation of producer services in Yangtze River Delta, fixed effects model of Panel Data model is also used in this paper, and the industrial structure is taken as the dependent variable, while the core explanatory variables is the degree of producer services' cluster development, which is calculated by location quotient, moreover, three control variables introduced in this paper and they are technology advantage, education level and R&D spending, and the mentioned above is to empirically study the impacts of producer services' cluster development to the regional industrial structure. As a result, producer services' cluster development has a significant positive role in promoting the regional industrial structure optimization and upgrading, though the extent is not yet a big push and is still to be further strengthened. In this paper, it has provided a strong evidence that under China' s new normal economy, producer services is badly needed to promote regional industrial structure, and finally it makes specific suggestions based on the current cluster situation of producer services in Yangtze River Delta.