This study develops a multivariate eco-hydrological risk-assessment framework based on the multivari-ate copula method in order to evaluate the occurrence of extreme eco-hydrological events for the Xiangxi River withi...This study develops a multivariate eco-hydrological risk-assessment framework based on the multivari-ate copula method in order to evaluate the occurrence of extreme eco-hydrological events for the Xiangxi River within the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR） area in China. Parameter uncertainties in marginal distri-butions and dependence structure are quantified by a Markov chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） algorithm. Uncertainties in the joint return periods are evaluated based on the posterior distributions. The proba- bilistic features of bivariate and multivariate hydrological risk are also characterized. The results show that the obtained predictive intervals bracketed the observations well, especially for flood duration. The uncertainty for the joint return period in ＂AND＂ case increases with an increase in the return period for univariate flood variables. Furthermore, a low design discharge and high service time may lead to high bivariate hydrological risk with great uncertainty.展开更多
Water environment security of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area has become a more extensive concern since the impoundment of the reservoir. This paper describes the existing water environmental hazards and defects in cu...Water environment security of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area has become a more extensive concern since the impoundment of the reservoir. This paper describes the existing water environmental hazards and defects in current legal system for water environmental protection in this area, and also discusses their possible causes and potential problems in the future based on first hand materials and other literature. According to the theories of integrated river basin management and environmental equity principle, legal proposals are put forward, which include building an unitary legal system dedicated to the Reservoir Area, setting up a basin authority of the Yangtze River to preside over the resources protection and development, using interests' compensation system to solve interest conflicts among different reaches, and making concrete regulations to direct public participation in water environmental security protection of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.展开更多
基金This work was jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （51520105013 and 51679087） and the National Key Research and Development Plan of China （2016YFC0502800）.
文摘This study develops a multivariate eco-hydrological risk-assessment framework based on the multivari-ate copula method in order to evaluate the occurrence of extreme eco-hydrological events for the Xiangxi River within the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR） area in China. Parameter uncertainties in marginal distri-butions and dependence structure are quantified by a Markov chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） algorithm. Uncertainties in the joint return periods are evaluated based on the posterior distributions. The proba- bilistic features of bivariate and multivariate hydrological risk are also characterized. The results show that the obtained predictive intervals bracketed the observations well, especially for flood duration. The uncertainty for the joint return period in ＂AND＂ case increases with an increase in the return period for univariate flood variables. Furthermore, a low design discharge and high service time may lead to high bivariate hydrological risk with great uncertainty.
文摘Water environment security of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area has become a more extensive concern since the impoundment of the reservoir. This paper describes the existing water environmental hazards and defects in current legal system for water environmental protection in this area, and also discusses their possible causes and potential problems in the future based on first hand materials and other literature. According to the theories of integrated river basin management and environmental equity principle, legal proposals are put forward, which include building an unitary legal system dedicated to the Reservoir Area, setting up a basin authority of the Yangtze River to preside over the resources protection and development, using interests' compensation system to solve interest conflicts among different reaches, and making concrete regulations to direct public participation in water environmental security protection of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
