Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This stu...Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This study suspects that insiders have a temptation to strategically manipulate financial forecast information to influence markets and thus receive extra rents. Under the new earnings forecast disclosure policy, the number of disclosing firm decreases but the precision of earnings forecast increases. The empirical result from dynamic panel data evidences the forecast error of voluntary disclosure may negatively impact firm values. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between insiders＇ trading profit and manipulation of earnings forecasts. As volatility in insider manipulation increases, it is difficult for the investors to predict the real intention of insiders, and insiders may achieve greater benefits from trading. This study also observes that many listed companies hold investor conferences to provide earnings guidance in Taiwan. The reason may be that investor conference is more flexible and has less forecast error cost than the formal financial forecast. This study provides important insights into earnings forecast policy in emerging markets. The competent authority should improve corporate governance and develop monitoring functions to abate forecast manipulation.展开更多
As an essential component of bus dwelling time, passenger boarding time has a significant impact on bus running reliability and service quality. In order to understand the passengers’ boarding process and mitigate pa...As an essential component of bus dwelling time, passenger boarding time has a significant impact on bus running reliability and service quality. In order to understand the passengers’ boarding process and mitigate passenger boarding time, a regression analysis framework is proposed to capture the difference and influential factors of boarding time for adult and elderly passengers based on smart card data from Changzhou. Boarding gap, the time difference between two consecutive smart card tapping records, is calculated to approximate passenger boarding time. Analysis of variance is applied to identify whether the difference in boarding time between adults and seniors is statistically significant. The multivariate regression modeling approach is implemented to analyze the influences of passenger types, marginal effects of each additional boarding passenger and bus floor types on the total boarding time at each stop. Results show that a constant difference exists in boarding time between adults and seniors even without considering the specific bus characteristics. The average passenger boarding time decreases when the number of passenger increases. The existence of two entrance steps delays the boarding process, especially for elderly passengers.展开更多
文摘Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This study suspects that insiders have a temptation to strategically manipulate financial forecast information to influence markets and thus receive extra rents. Under the new earnings forecast disclosure policy, the number of disclosing firm decreases but the precision of earnings forecast increases. The empirical result from dynamic panel data evidences the forecast error of voluntary disclosure may negatively impact firm values. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between insiders＇ trading profit and manipulation of earnings forecasts. As volatility in insider manipulation increases, it is difficult for the investors to predict the real intention of insiders, and insiders may achieve greater benefits from trading. This study also observes that many listed companies hold investor conferences to provide earnings guidance in Taiwan. The reason may be that investor conference is more flexible and has less forecast error cost than the formal financial forecast. This study provides important insights into earnings forecast policy in emerging markets. The competent authority should improve corporate governance and develop monitoring functions to abate forecast manipulation.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51338003,71801041)
文摘As an essential component of bus dwelling time, passenger boarding time has a significant impact on bus running reliability and service quality. In order to understand the passengers’ boarding process and mitigate passenger boarding time, a regression analysis framework is proposed to capture the difference and influential factors of boarding time for adult and elderly passengers based on smart card data from Changzhou. Boarding gap, the time difference between two consecutive smart card tapping records, is calculated to approximate passenger boarding time. Analysis of variance is applied to identify whether the difference in boarding time between adults and seniors is statistically significant. The multivariate regression modeling approach is implemented to analyze the influences of passenger types, marginal effects of each additional boarding passenger and bus floor types on the total boarding time at each stop. Results show that a constant difference exists in boarding time between adults and seniors even without considering the specific bus characteristics. The average passenger boarding time decreases when the number of passenger increases. The existence of two entrance steps delays the boarding process, especially for elderly passengers.
