当前居民储蓄和消费意愿与其行为相背离——2008年4季度呼和浩特城镇储户问卷调查分析

人民银行呼和浩特中心支行于2008年11月中旬在呼和浩特8个定点储蓄网点组织实施了4季度城镇储户问卷调查,调查回收有效问卷400份.调查结果表明:居民当期收入感受指数和未来收入信心指数持续下降;居民通胀压力逐渐减弱,对当前物价承受能力进一步增强;居民储蓄意愿下降而储蓄存款持续增长;消费意愿减弱,消费需求明显上升;投资意愿升温,拥有的股票、基金占比增加.……

2007年1季度 江苏省银行家问卷调查分析

2007年一季度,人民银行南京分行对全省124家金融机构进行银行家问卷调查,调查结果显示:银行家对当前经济形势判断趋于乐观,对货币政策认同程度显著提高;信贷需求和投放景气维持高位,银行业景气指数创调查以来最高水平。与此同时,欠发达地区由于实体经济对投资品的需求增长较快,银行家通货膨胀预期更为强烈,对县域经济运行偏热的担忧有所增强。

二次行情提前发动

一局棋,只有把下棋者的用意给想明白了,才能够下好。很明显,在当前点位,只有指数上去了,才符合各方面的利益,新股发行的重启也需要一个健康的市场环境来支撑。几期文章一直在提示风险,总体上看市场机会不是很大,并且短线股的连续性较差。今年1-2月份的经济数据不如预期,同时我们看到海外资金也有部分赎回RQFII,导致国内投资者的信心有所不足。而春节后连续的正回购也使得市场资金面一度紧张,两会的召开也使得投资者观望情绪较浓。

Impacts of Environmental Factors on the Structure Characteristics of Avian Community in Shanghai Woodlots in Spring

From March to May, 2004, we selected 8 typical parks or green lands in Shanghai downtown as the study sites to conduct a ornithological research. During this study, total 55 species of birds were recorded, which included 31 resident and 24 migratory species. With statistics methodology, we analyzed the avian communities with 10 major environmental factors covering the park area, water percentage, vegetation species, canopy cover, shrub cover, grass cover, hill number, location condition, human quantity, path width, the study results indicated that: (1) the following 7 environmental factors were important to impact the structures of the avian community, they were park area, vegetation species, shrub coverage, grass coverage, hill number, location condition of the parks and path width; (2) the avian community of theses urban parks tended to deteriorate in the bird number and diversity; the man-made lake which was currently promoted in the park designing and planning process would not be good to attract the birds.

当前宏观调控形势下黑龙江省工业企业发展状况分析

今年三季度,国家宏观调控力度继续加大,提高存款准备金率、上调存贷款利率、发行央行票据等一系列调控"组合拳",对投资过快、信贷过快发出了"从紧信号"。作为微观经济运行主体的企业,对宏观经济形势、生产经营状况的判断和预期也出现了一些变化。

数据

90亿据wind数据显示,本周公开市场将有400亿元正回购到期,由于本周二有正回购到期注入资金300亿元,今日央行实际仅净回笼90亿元。18日,上海银行间同业拆放利率涨跌互现,其中,隔夜利率上涨46个基点至2.5240%,7天期利率回落30个基点至3.0860%,而14天期利率反弹21个基点至3.3400%。

Effect of sea surface wind on the seasonal variation of sea level in the east of China seas

Sea level seasonal variations in the east of China seas from 2004 to 2006 are simulated by the advanced ROMS model. The results show similar sea level spatial features with TOPEX/Poseidon observations, with annual ranges decreasing gradually from the sea coast to the Kuroshio region. By getting rid of wind stress in ROMS model, the simulated sea level results still show obvious seasonal variations. However, the phenomenon of sea level anomaly disappears in Min Zhe Current Coastwise （MZCF） and Su Bei current coastwise （SBCF）, and the change of it from coastal area to ocean recedes. The seal level difference between Bohai, Yellow Sea （BYS） and East China Sea （ECS） becomes weaker in spring and autumn. The annual differences decrease obviously, and the gradual change of annual ranges from seacoast to the Kuroshio almost disappears. The annual ranges in BYS are nearly identical. The annual range ratio without the wind stress to with the wind stress increases gradually from the sea coast to Kuroshio region.

Role of Ekman Transport Versus Ekman Pumping in Driving Summer Upwelling in the South China Sea

Relative roles of Ekman transport and Ekman pumping in driving summer upwelling in the South China Sea （SCS） are examined using QuikSCAT scatterometer wind data. The major upwelling regions in the SCS are the coastal regions east and south- east of Vietnam （UESEV）, east and southeast of Hainan Island （UESEH）, and southeast of Guangdong province （USEG）. It is shown that the Ekman transport due to alongshore winds and Ekman pumping due to offshore wind stress curl play different roles in the three upwelling systems. In UESEV, Ekman pumping and Ekman transport are equally important in generating upwelling. The Ek- man transport increases linearly from 0.49 Sv in May to 1.23 Sv in August, while the Ekman pumping increases from 0.36 to 1.22 Sv during the same period. In UESEH, the mean estimates of Ekman transport and Ekman pumping are 0.14 and 0.07 Sv, respectively, indicating that 33% of the total wind-driven upwelling is due to Ekman pumping. In USEC~ the mean Ekman transport is 0.041 Sv with the peak occurring in July, while Ekman pumping is much smaller （0.003 on average）, indicating that the upwelling in this area is primarily driven by Ekman transport. In the summers of 2003 and 2007 following E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events, both Ekman transport and Ekman pumping decrease in UESEV due to the abnormally weak southwest monsoon. During the same events, however, Ekman transport is slightly enhanced and Ekman pumping is weakened in UESEH and USEG.

Variability Modes of the Winter Upper-Level Wind Field over Asian MidHigh Latitude Region

In this study,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset was used to analyze the variability modes of the winter upper-level wind field over Asian mid-high latitude region.As shown by the results,the dominant variability modes of the winter upper-level wind field over Asian mid-high latitude region are characterized by the out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the subtropical and temperate jets over East Asia and the meridional shift of the subtropical jet axis,on interannual and multiannual scales,respectively.The first leading variability mode can be used as a good measure to represent the integral variation of atmospheric general circulation in Asian mid-latitude region.Composite analyses suggest that the first leading variability mode of the winter upper-level wind field is intimately related to the atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in the northern hemispheric mid-latitude region.

An East Asian Monsoon in the Mid-Pliocene

In this study, the authors simulate the East Asian climate changes in the mid-Pliocene (～3.3 to 3.0 Ma BP) with the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 (CAM3.1) and compare the simulated East Asian monsoon with paleoclimate data. The simulations show an obvious warming pattern in East Asia in the mid-Pliocene compared with the pre-industrial climate, with surface air temperature increasing by 0.5 4.0°C. In the warm mid-Pliocene simulation, the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) becomes stronger, while the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is similar relative to the pre-industrial climate. Compared with the paleoclimate data, our simulations depict the intensified EASM well but cannot reproduce the weakened EAWM. This model-data discrepancy may be attributed to the uncertainty in the reconstructed mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature.

Seasonal Changes of Energy Fluxes in an Estuarine Wetland of Shanghai,China

The energy budget and regulating factors were investigated over an estuarine wetland during one year of continuous measurement in 2006.The results show that the seasonal changes of the energy fluxes and Bowen ratio(β) were greatly affected by incoming shortwave radiation and canopy growth.During the non-growing season and early-growing season, sensible heat(H) dominated the energy flux, and β could reach a maximum of 2.5, while during most of the growing season, latent heat dominated the energy flux and β fluctuated from 0.4 to 1.0.The energy budget ratio in growing season was about 0.76, and the value would be higher if heat exchange during tidal flooding was in-cluded.During tidal flooding days, β was slightly higher than that at exposure days in most cases.Vegetation cover seems exert little effect on energy partitioning except in March when the standing dead grass intercepted the incoming radiation that might reach the soil surface and reduce the turbulence between soil and atmosphere, thus suppressing the evaporation from the soil though the soil mositure was high at that time.

Does a monsoon circulation exist in the upper troposphere over the central and eastern tropical Pacific?

Considering the central and eastern tropical Pacific （CETP） has important climate impacts, and its seasonal variability is also thought to be important, the authors used the monsoon investigation method named ＇dynamical normalized seasonality＇, which can precisely describe the wind vector direction over time, to analyze the upper-tropospheric circulation over the region. The authors discovered that there is a clear reversal of seasonal changes between winter and summer wind, just like the classic monsoon. Accordingly, the authors propose the new concept of the upper- troposphere monsoon over the CETP. The results extend the classical lower-troposphere monsoon region into the upper troposphere.

Non-uniform spatial difference in the South Asian summer monsoon during the mid-Piacenzian

The South Asian summer monsoon （SASM） during the mid-Piacenzian is analyzed through climate modelling with CAM4. The model results reveal a non-uniform spatial difference in the SASM during the mid-Piacenzian compared to the pre-industrial era, with the SASM being more intense north of -20°N but weaker south of -20°N. In particular, summer precipitation is higher in South Asia north of -20°N, accompanied by anomalous low-level southwesterlies from the Arabian Sea, whereas the precipitation is lower in South Asia south of-20°N, with anomalous low-level easterlies. These differences in the SASM are related to changes in sea level pressure （SLP） due to the different boundary conditions between the two periods. Further analysis isolates the climate effects of the different boundary conditions and indicates the combined difference in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and SST to be the most important factor in this difference in the SASM through the changes in SLR By comparison, the differences in vegetation and topography have limited effects. The availability of geological evidence is relative greater in northern India than in southern India, and comparison with this geological evidence shows the simulated monsoon climate to be qualitatively consistent with it, particularly for the wetter climate in northern India.

Wind rotation characteristics of the upper tropospheric monsoon over the central and eastern tropical Pacific

In this study, to investigate whether the variation of wind direction in the upper tropospheric monsoon over the central and eastern tropical Pacific shows similar characteristics to the classical monsoon region, the authors introduced a wind vector angle methodology that describes the size of the angle of the wind direction variation, as well as the directed rotary angle, which includes not only the size of the angle but also how the wind vector rotates. On this basis, the authors utilized and improved the directed rotary angle methodology to investigate the evolution of wind direction in detail, and the study confirmed the presence of the same four rotation features in the upper tropospheric monsoon region. Furthermore, the authors also identified the precise variation of wind direction in pentads with seasonal evolution, and found the onset time of the upper tropospheric monsoon may be earlier than the classical monsoon while the termination time may be later. The results further support and supplement the theory of global monsoons, which unifies the low-level and upper tropospheric monsoon as one monsoon system.

CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature （ERSST） data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection （EAP） pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection （EUP） pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent （MC） region; positive （negative） precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific （MC）. A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong （weak） SCSSM strengthens （weakens） cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool （warm） the SST around the MC through enhanced （reduced） surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling （warming） further leads to suppressed （enhanced） convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly （easterly） in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of E1 Nino （La Nina） through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.

Atmospheric boundary layer sources for upper tropospheric air over the Asian summer monsoon region

Previous satellite measurements and model simulations have shown that the Asian summer monsoon（ASM） anticyclone is co-located with higher concentrations of pollutants, which are emitted in the continental atmospheric boundary layer（ABL）. Backward trajectory calculations show that the air at the 150-hPa level has the maximum frequency of ABL sources within 30 days over the most intensive convection regions and their downwind areas, which are not located within the ASM anticyclone,but rather at the southern flank or periphery of the ASM anticyclone. The upper tropospheric airs originated from the ABL sources include two parts： one from the ocean, which has the dominant impact to the south of 20°N, particularly over the South China Sea（SCS） and the west tropical Pacific Ocean; and another from the continent, which is dominant between 10°N and 30°N, particularly over the Bay of Bengal（BoB）, continental India, the Arabian Sea, and the Arabian Peninsula. It is the latter part that forms the higher pollutant concentration within the ASM anticyclone as shown by satellite measurements. Air in the ABL sources（both polluted and unpolluted） converges to the intensive convection region in the lower troposphere, and then traverses the middle troposphere through a wide group of upward pipes, and finally to the upper troposphere. These pipes in the middle troposphere are defined by the ASM intensive convections and cover the south of continental India,the BoB, the Tibetan Plateau, the Indochina Peninsula, the SCS, and the Philippine Sea.

Low-frequency variations in primary production in the Oman upwelling zone associated with monsoon winds

Thirteen-year satellite-derived data are used to investigate the temporal variability of net primary production （NPP） in the Oman upwelling zone and its potential forcing mechanisms. The NPP in the Oman upwelling zone is characterized by an abnormal decrease during E1 Nifio events. Such an NPP decrease may be related to E1 Nifio-driven anomalous summertime weak wind. During the summer following E1 Nifio, the anomalous northeasterly wind forced by southwest Indian Ocean warming weakens the southwest monsoon and warms the Arabian Sea. The abnormal wind weakens the coastal Ekman transport, offshore Ekman pumping and horizontal advection, resulting in reduced upward nutrient supply to the euphotic zone. A slightly declining trend in NPP after 2000 associated with a gradual decrease in surface monsoon winds is discussed.