定业可转与否之浅释

佛学中最基础、最重要也最难以理解的就要算业力论了。业影响着万事万物的运转,所以理解业的运行规律对我们正确的把握生命是有着积极意义的。佛经中常言,业及业境界不可思议,唯佛境界。以常人的智慧想要弄清楚业力之究竟运行规律是几乎不可能的,所以唯有依据佛教三藏加以分析理解。业力有诸多分类,其中有一种是按照定与不定来分的。在经律论三藏的记述中既有定业不可转的说法,又有支持定业可转之论据,究竟定业是否可转?这个论题就变得非常有必要而且有意义。本文旨在对佛教经论中定不定业的论述进行梳理,对定业是否可转进行一个尝试性的探讨。

Soil Organic Carbon Density in Hebei Province, China: Estimates and Uncertainty

In order to improve the precision of soil organic carbon (SOC) estimates, the sources of uncertainty in soil organic carbon density (SOCD) estimates and SOC stocks were examined using 363 soil profiles in Hebei Province, China, with three methods: the soil profile statistics (SPS), GIS-based soil type (GST), and kriging interpolation (KI). The GST method, utilizing both pedological professional knowledge and GIS technology, was considered the most accurate method of the three estimations, with SOCD estimates for SPS 10% lower and KI 10% higher. The SOCD range for GST was 84% wider than KI as KI smoothing effect narrowed the SOCD range. Nevertheless, the coefficient of variation for SOCD with KI (41.7%) was less than GST and SPS. Comparing SOCD’s lower estimates for SPS versus GST, the major sources of uncertainty were the conflicting area of proportional relations. Meanwhile, the fewer number of soil profiles and the necessity of using the smoothing effect with KI were its sources of uncertainty. Moreover, for local detailed variations of SOCD, GST was more advantageous in reflecting the distribution pattern than KI.

A Hybrid Programming Model for Optimal Production Planning under Demand Uncertainty in Refinery

Abstract Production planning under uncertainty is considered as one of the most important problems in plant-wide optimization. In this article, first, a stochastic programming model with uniform distribution assumption is developed for refinery production planning under demand uncertainty, and then a hybrid programming model incorporating the linear programming model with the stochastic programming one by a weight factor is proposed. Subsequently, piecewise linear approximation functions are derived and applied to solve the hybrid programming model-under uniform distribution assumption. Case studies show that the linear approximation algorithm is effective to solve.the hybrid programming model, along with an error≤0.5% when the deviatiorgmean≤20%. The simulation results indicate that the hybrid programming model with an appropriate weight factor （0.1-0.2） can effectively improve the optimal operational strategies under demand uncertainty, achieving higher profit than the linear programming model and the stochastic programming one with about 1.3% and 0.4% enhancement, respectavely.

A Strategy for the Integration of Production Planning and Scheduling in Refineries under Uncertainty

A strategy for the integration of production planning and scheduling in refineries is proposed. This strategy relies on rolling horizon strategy and a two-level decomposition strategy. This strategy involves an upper level multiperiod mixed integer linear programming （MILP） model and a lower level simulation system, which is extended from our previous framework for short-term scheduling problems [Luo, C.E, Rong, G, ＂Hierarchical apthis extended framework is to reduce the number of variables and the size of the optimization model and, to quickly find the optimal solution for the integrated planning/scheduling problem in refineries. Uncertainties are also considered in this article. An integrated robust optimization approach is introduced to cope with uncertain parameters with both continuous and discrete probability distribution.

Integration of real options into short-term mine planning and production scheduling

Commodity prices have fallen sharply due to the global financial crisis. This has adversely affected the viability of some mining projects, including leading to the possibility of bankruptcy for some companies. These price falls reflect uncertainties and risks associated with mining projects. In recent years, much work has been published related to the application of real options pricing theory to value life-of-mine plans in response to long term financial uncertainty and risk. However, there are uncertainties and risks associated with medium/short-term mining operations. Real options theory can also be applied to tactical decisions involving uncertainties and risks. This paper will investigate the application of real options in the mining industry and present a methodology developed at University of Queensland, Australia, for integrating real options into medium/short-term mine planning and production scheduling. A case study will demonstrate the validity and usefulness of the methodology and techniques developed.

Specific Financial Constraints of Innovative Companies： Theoretical Approach

When a small and medium-sized enterprise （SME） decides to invest in an innovative project, it becomes attached to a high level of uncertainty （Hall ＆ Lerner, 2009） and it could meet some financial constraints （Kerr ＆ Nanda, 2014）. This work is trying to apprehend the specific financial problems which SMEs, working on innovative projects, might face in a context characterized by a lack of liquidity, and it aims to improve the understanding of previous theoretical and empirical studies that dealt with the subject of financing these innovative companies. Moreover, it appears that it is important to ask the following question： Are there specific financial constraints to innovative SMEs？ In order to answer the preceding question, this paper presents firstly the concept of innovation within companies. Secondly, it describes the specificities bound to the diverse financing approaches： in terms of risk, uncertainty, asymmetric information and profitability of an innovative project, while developing a theoretical approach concerning the possible constraints of financing the innovative companies.

An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. This chain includes both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. The analysis is focused on Maggiore Lake basin, an Alpine basin between North-West of Italy and Southern Switzerland. Two hindcasts during the D-PHASE period are discussed in order to evaluate certain effects regarding discharge forecasts due to hydro-meteorological sources of uncertainties. In particular, in the June convective event it is analysed how the effect of meteorological model spatial resolution can influence the discharge forecasts over mountain basins, while in the November stratiform event how the effect of the initial conditions of soil moisture can modify meteorological warnings. The study shows how the introduction of alert codes appears to be useful for decision makers to give them a spread of forecasted QDFs with the probability of event occurrence, but also how alert warnings issued on the basis of forecasted precipitation only are not always reliable.

Significance of Rare Mineral Resources to Strategic Emerging Industries

As non-renewable natural resources, rare minerals＇ are extensively used as important raw materials in strategic emerging industries. As global consumption continues to increase over recent years, international competition in the area of rare mineral minerals has been escalating. On the basis＇ of the identification of 22 rare mineral resources of six categories and analysis of their applications in strategic emerging industries, this paper has adopted a three-factor analytical framework and designed nine indicators from the three dimensions of supply risks, environmental impacts and economic impacts of restricted supply to conduct a quantitative evaluation of the strategic significance of rare mineral resources. The result indicates that the strategic significance of platinum-group metals is the highest and the strategic significance of cesium is the lowest. In order to further increase the reliability of evaluation results, this paper has employed the Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis＇. Simulation result demonstrates that after the impacts＂ of individual indicators have been taken into account, the results＇ of this paper＇s evaluation of 22 rare mineral resources remain valid. Given the growing significance of rare mineral resources to strategic emerging industries, China should formulate a national strategy on rare mineral resources＇, strive to inerease the supply security of key raw materials for strategic emerging industries and achieve the sustainable development and utilization of rare mineral resources for national security of natural resources.

On the E-Valuation of Certain E-Business Strategies on Firm Performance by Adaptive Algorithmic Modeling： An Alternative Strategic Managerial Approach

This paper describes an innovative adaptive algorithmic modeling approach, for solving a wide class of e-business and strategic management problems under uncertainty conditions. The proposed methodology is based on basic ideas and concepts of four key-field interrelated sciences, i.e., computing science, applied mathematics, management sciences and economic sciences. Furthermore, the fundamental scientific concepts of adaptability and uncertainty are shown to play a critical role of major importance for a （near） optimum solution of a class of complex e-business/services and strategic management problems. Two characteristic case studies, namely measuring e-business performance under certain environmental pressures and organizational constraints and describing the relationships between technology, innovation and firm performance, are considered as effective applications of the proposed adaptive algorithmic modeling approach. A theoretical time-dependent model for the evaluation of firm e-business performances is also proposed.

Estimating Probability of Instability of Haulage Drift with Respect to Mining Sequences

Haulage drifts play a vital role in providing personnel and equipment access to ore extraction areas for mine production. Thus, their stability is of crucial importance during the life of a mine plan. Many Canadian mines use longhole mining methods or one of its variants. These methods require access to the orebody through haulage drifts on multiple levels. This paper examines the stability of mine haulage drifts with respect to planned mining sequence. A case study of an underground mine is presented. The case study examines # l Shear East of the Garson Mine in Sudbury, Ontario. A two-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference model （FLAC 2D） is developed for a haulage drift situated 1.5 km below surface in the footwall of the orebody. The stability of the haulage drift is evaluated in terms of the spread of yield zones into the rockmass due to nearby mining activities. The performance of the drift stability is evaluated at various mining stages, employing the RMC （Random Monte-Carlo） technique in conjunction with finite difference modeling to study the probability of unsatisfactory performance of the drift. The results are presented and categorized with respect to probability, instability and mining stage.

The uncertain analysis of micro agricultural project investment

We conduct uncertain analysis of micro agricultural project, including the break-even analysis of single product micro agricultural project, the boundary break-even points analysis of the double product micro agricultural project. We find out the critical point and the critical line of the break-even. We analyze the ability to resist risk. This analyses help the micro agricultural project＇s investors to price reasonably, forecast the earnings and make the correct decision.

Oil Refining Planning under Petroleum Products Demand Uncertainties： Case of Algeria

This paper aims to analyze, with a linear dynamic programming, the Algerian refining industry development by 2030 in the presence of uncertainties, both on the domestic demand and the exportation of the petroleum products. Currently, the Algerian refining industry has to be adapted to meet demand progress both in terms of volume and also in terms of specifications, in a general context marked by a strong volatility of the oil markets. Commonly, refining operations planning models are based on a deterministic linear programming. However, because of the demand fluctuation, and other conditions for the market, many parameters should be considered as uncertain such as the demand and the exportation. The impact of such uncertainties on the development＇s pattern of refining capacities is analyzed with a stochastic model. Finally, the results of both deterministic and stochastic models are compared.

Agricultural Support Policies and Public Budgeting in Turkey

Agriculture is a leading strategic sector in Turkey as it is in entire world. Despite this strategic significance, risks, and uncertainties, the dependence on natural conditions turns agriculture into a disadvantaged sector. Just because of these disadvantages, agriculture is protected by various support policies throughout the world. Agricultural policies of Turkey have initiated with institutionalization policies of the Republican period and progressed through product supports, input supports, and low-interest credit implementations of the planned period. These policies experienced serious reforms at the beginning of 2000s. Within the scope of Agricultural supports and Reforms Implementation Project （ARIP）, agricultural supports tried to be gathered under a single roof and Direct Income Support （DIS） implementations started. The DIS implementations lasted for eight years and terminated in 2008. The aim of this study is to examine agricultural supports in Turkey and their shares in the public budget. As material, macroeconomic data are used in this study. The data consist of transfers from the ministry of food, agriculture, and livestock to agriculture and budget numbers. The results of the study reveal that current agricultural policy tools are implemented as area-based supports, subsidiary payments, rural development, and agricultural insurance supports. The budget allocated to agriculture and the share of agricultural supports in Gross Domestic Product （GDP） of Turkey does not exhibit much change in years. Considering the policies and supports provided in developed countries and especially in European Union （EU） countries, it recommend for Turkey that the share of agricultural supports in total budget should be increased to levels in those countries.

Credit Risk （Based on Analysis of Financial Statements） as the Decisive Factor Influencing the Risk of Investors

Banks as the key subjects in the financing of investment have a strong influence on the risk of investors. Hence, the solvency of the bank is of crucial importance for the risk management in the investment process. Given the fact of underdevelopment of financial markets and the lack of trading activities in securities, it is evident that the investments of banks in the developing countries mostly include lending investments. Looking at the key categories of risk that influence the overall risk of the banking business in such conditions, it can be concluded that credit risk presents the dominant and decisive factor. The aim of the paper is to select the bank determinant key factors of credit risk and to determine the extent to which non-performing loans （NPL） of bank credits affect the solvency of banks, and therefore also the risk of investors. This selection of the main determinants will be based on the analysis of financial statements. This is essential, especially taking into account the impact of the global financial crisis and the increasingly frequent falling into insolvency customers. Finally, liquidity of customers is that of the bank, and it is crucial for investors to timely identify possible risks associated with bank loans in order to proactively manage risk investment.

Internationalization in Egypt： Risks and Opportunities

Despite of Egypt is facing a period of political uncertainty, some Italian firms have a great interest in operating business in Egypt. Egypt has bilateral agreements with Italy since 2007. As a result of this relation, Italy has become a strategic partner for Egypt, gaining a growing importance in the Middle East. Egypt is, also, an important trading partner for the Italy. Political and economic relationship between Egypt and Italy has increased the interest in analyzing risks and opportunities for Italian firms that would like to operate in Egypt. However studies focused on this topic are still missing. With the aim to fill this gap, this article presents a study based on face to face interviews to some Egyptian senior-executives who manage in Egypt productive centres and representative offices of Italian finns. These interviews led to evidence opportunities and risks that Italian firms have to face operating business in Egypt.

Emission Characteristics of Volatile Organic Compounds from Automobile Coating Industry in Chongqing City

To fully analyze emission characteristics of VOCs （Volatile Organic Compounds） from automobile coating industry in Chongqing city, related enterprises in the city were investigated in detail. The results show that the emission of VOCs from the automobile industry in Chongqing city was approximately 20,000 t in 2012, and the contribution rate of automobile coating was 83%. Most VOCs discharged from automobile coating industry were mainly from the use of coatings, diluents, curing agents and other materials containing VOCs. During the process of automobile coating, VOCs were mainly produced during the processes of spraying and drying. Besides, VOCs are partly produced during the processes of mixing paint, gluing, waxing and repairing. The major ingredients of VOCs discharged during the process of automobile coating were methylbenzene, dimethylbenzene, trimethylbenzene, cumene, ethyl acetate, butyl alcohol, n-butyl alcohol, isobutyl alcohol, formaldehyde, butanone, acetone, cyclohexanone and methyl ethyl ketone. Besides, the ingredients of naphtha and aromatic hydrocarbon in VOCs need to be determined. The maximum OFP （Ozone Formation Potential） of the above pollutants by the typical enterprises was 900-1,300 mg/m^3. The production of SOA （Secondary Organic Aerosol） was 3,636-11,073 t/a, which didn’t include the contribution of aldehydes, ketones, ethers and esters to SOA. This research could provide scientific reference for the establishment of emission standard, control technology and management methods of VOCs from automobile coating industry that accord with economic and social development in Chongqing city.

Today＇s Risks and Difficulty of Chinese Commercial Banks

According to the Top 1,000 world banks released by the British authoritative magazine The Banker, the profits made by Chinese banking industry in 2011 had accounted for one-third of the global banking profits, and nearly 100 banks had been included in the Top 1,000 world banks list. This proves that China＇s commercial banks have been standing in the forefront of the world. While achieving such impressive results, China＇s risks and uncertainties due to the constraints of the internal and external environment cannot be ignored. Those risks are mainly about the risks of the over-estimation of the expected return for financial products, the high credit concentration, as well as the seldom use of financially derivative products. Therefore, it is difficult to avoid risks by the portfolio management, which restricts the further improvement of the competitiveness of commercial banks.

Risk in the Prices of Fossil Fuels for Japanese Electric Utility Sector

A risk in the prices of fossil fuels is a major concern to importing countries of them. This study analyzes the risk of an increase in the cost for Japanese electric utility sector during the period 1978-2007 considering the uncertainty in the prices of fossil fuels. The mean-semivariance model, which uses an upper semivariance as an index of the risk, is adopted for the purpose. The result confirms that the semivariance is the better index of the risk than the variance. Furether, the semivariance is decomposed into two factors; the risk caused by price changes in an individual fossil fuel source and the risk caused by correlations among the changes in the prices of fossil fuel sources. The former has been kept at a low level as it appears to be easy to estimate, while the latter has not been maintained at the lowest level as it appears to be difficult to estimate. The Japanese electric utility sector followed the minimum-risk fossil fuel mix up until 2001, but discontinued the same post 2001.

The uncertain analysis of micro agricultural project investment

We conduct uncertain analysis of micro agricultural project, including the break-even analysis of single product micro agricultural project, the boundary break-even points analysis of the double product micro agricultural project. We find out the critical point and the critical line of the break-everL We analyze the ability to resist risk. This analyses help the micro agricultural project＇s investors to price reasonably, forecast the earnings and make the correct decision.

Digital output compensation for precise frequency transfer over commercial fiber link

An ultra-highly precise and long-term stable frequency transmission system over 120 km commercial fiber link has been proposed and experimentally demonstrated. This system is based on digital output compensation technique to suppress phase fluctuations during the frequency transmission process. A mode-locked erbium-doped fiber laser driven by a hydrogen maser serves as an optical transmitter. Moreover, a dense wavelength division multiplexing system is able to separate forward and backward signals with reflection effect excluded. The ultimate fractional frequency instabilities for the long-distance frequency distributed system are up to 3.14×10^(-15) at 1 s and 2.96×10^(-19) at 10 000 s, respectively.