Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a r...Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a rational decision process to supersede decision choices based only on a gut feeling. After assessing probabilities the decision maker can confirm or reverse a gut feeling choice using expected values for each available act and traditional decision theory methodology. A simple example involving a buy now or buy later situation with market uncertainty illustrates the process for typical yes or no decisions.展开更多
文摘Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a rational decision process to supersede decision choices based only on a gut feeling. After assessing probabilities the decision maker can confirm or reverse a gut feeling choice using expected values for each available act and traditional decision theory methodology. A simple example involving a buy now or buy later situation with market uncertainty illustrates the process for typical yes or no decisions.
