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预防性储蓄模型及其不确定性分解 被引量:12
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作者 徐绪松 陈彦斌 《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2003年第2期100-103,共4页
本文构造了一个包含不确定性和消费增长率的预防性储蓄模型。将引致预防性储蓄的总不确定性分解成两个成分:利率波动的不确定性和消费增长率波动的不确定性;分别用利率的条件方差和消费增长率的条件方差度量不确定性。此外,本文还使用GA... 本文构造了一个包含不确定性和消费增长率的预防性储蓄模型。将引致预防性储蓄的总不确定性分解成两个成分:利率波动的不确定性和消费增长率波动的不确定性;分别用利率的条件方差和消费增长率的条件方差度量不确定性。此外,本文还使用GARCH模型模拟上述两个条件方差,使对预防性储蓄的实证分析成为可能。 展开更多
关键词 预防性储蓄模型 GARCH 不确定性分解 条件方差
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基于不确定分解子空间约束光流的柔性目标点跟踪
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作者 侯云舒 赵荣椿 《西北工业大学学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2007年第1期153-158,共6页
提出一种基于不确定分解子空间约束光流的柔性目标点跟踪算法,通过不确定分解理论将多帧多点光流估计矩阵变换到各向同性的具有超球状方差分布的空间中,在此变换空间中引入SVD分解得到最小均方意义下的子空间光流逼近,有效地减轻了传统... 提出一种基于不确定分解子空间约束光流的柔性目标点跟踪算法,通过不确定分解理论将多帧多点光流估计矩阵变换到各向同性的具有超球状方差分布的空间中,在此变换空间中引入SVD分解得到最小均方意义下的子空间光流逼近,有效地减轻了传统L-K算法的孔径问题、深度不连续点的估计问题及长序列视频的漂移问题。标准测试序列和消费类USB摄像头采集的测试序列的实验结果都证明算法能有效地跟踪长视频序列中具有2-D和1-D甚至基本没有纹理的具有退化结构的柔性目标点。结果还可应用于柔性目标理解并可以作为半稠密的点对应来解决SFM中的对应点求解问题。 展开更多
关键词 视频跟踪 不确定性分解 子空间约束 光流估计
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基于不确定性感知网络的可信机械故障诊断
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作者 邵海东 肖一鸣 +2 位作者 邓乾旺 任颖莹 韩特 《机械工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第12期194-206,共13页
基于深度学习的故障诊断方法受其黑箱特性限制难以给出可信赖和可解释的诊断结果。现有可解释故障诊断研究多集中在开发可解释模块并嵌入深度学习模型以赋予诊断结果一定物理意义,或以结果为基础反推模型做出此决策的深层逻辑,对于如何... 基于深度学习的故障诊断方法受其黑箱特性限制难以给出可信赖和可解释的诊断结果。现有可解释故障诊断研究多集中在开发可解释模块并嵌入深度学习模型以赋予诊断结果一定物理意义,或以结果为基础反推模型做出此决策的深层逻辑,对于如何量化诊断结果中的不确定性并解释其来源和构成的研究工作十分有限。不确定性量化及分解不仅能提供诊断结果的可信度,还能辨析数据中未知因素的来源,最终指导提升诊断模型的可解释性。因此,提出将贝叶斯变分学习嵌入Transformer以开发一种不确定性感知网络,用于可信机械故障诊断。设计了一种变分注意力机制并定义了相应的优化目标函数,可建模注意力权重的先验分布和变分后验分布,从而赋予网络感知不确定性的能力。制定了一种不确定性量化及分解方案,可实现诊断结果的可信度表征以及认知不确定性和偶然不确定性的分离。以行星齿轮箱智能故障诊断为例,在测试数据中含有未知故障模式、未知噪声水平以及未知工况样本的分布外泛化场景中,充分验证了所提方法用于可信故障诊断的可行性。 展开更多
关键词 可信故障诊断 不确定性感知网络 变分注意力 不确定性量化及分解 贝叶斯深度学习
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Best Tracking Performance under Plant Uncertainty and Control Energy Constraint
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作者 孔屹刚 王志新 王建国 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2007年第4期529-532,538,共5页
This paper has investigated best tracking performance for linear feedback control systems in the case that plant uncertainty and control effort need to be considered simultaneously. Firstly, an average integral square... This paper has investigated best tracking performance for linear feedback control systems in the case that plant uncertainty and control effort need to be considered simultaneously. Firstly, an average integral square criterion of the tracking error and the plant input energy over a class of additive model errors is defined. Then, utilizing spectral factorization to minimize the performance index, we obtain an optimal controller design method, and furthermore study optimal tracking performance under plant uncertainty and control energy constraint. The results can be used to evaluate optimal average tracking performance and control energy in designing practical control systems. 展开更多
关键词 optimal tracking plant uncertainty control energy constraint spectral factorization
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Risk in the Prices of Fossil Fuels for Japanese Electric Utility Sector
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作者 K. Suzuki D. Masukawa Y. Uchiyama 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2010年第10期9-16,共8页
A risk in the prices of fossil fuels is a major concern to importing countries of them. This study analyzes the risk of an increase in the cost for Japanese electric utility sector during the period 1978-2007 consider... A risk in the prices of fossil fuels is a major concern to importing countries of them. This study analyzes the risk of an increase in the cost for Japanese electric utility sector during the period 1978-2007 considering the uncertainty in the prices of fossil fuels. The mean-semivariance model, which uses an upper semivariance as an index of the risk, is adopted for the purpose. The result confirms that the semivariance is the better index of the risk than the variance. Furether, the semivariance is decomposed into two factors; the risk caused by price changes in an individual fossil fuel source and the risk caused by correlations among the changes in the prices of fossil fuel sources. The former has been kept at a low level as it appears to be easy to estimate, while the latter has not been maintained at the lowest level as it appears to be difficult to estimate. The Japanese electric utility sector followed the minimum-risk fossil fuel mix up until 2001, but discontinued the same post 2001. 展开更多
关键词 Mean-semivariance model energy security fossil fuel mix Japan.
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Review of controlled clinical trials on acupuncture versus sham acupuncture in Germany 被引量:2
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作者 Wei He Yuanyuan Tong +5 位作者 Yingkai Zhao Li Zhang Hui Ben Qingguang Qin Feng Huang Peijing Rong 《Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第3期403-407,共5页
OBJECTIVE: To examine German controlled clinical trials on the therapeutic effects of acupuncture vs sham acupuncture, and to find whether there are problems with the conclusion that sham acupuncture has no significan... OBJECTIVE: To examine German controlled clinical trials on the therapeutic effects of acupuncture vs sham acupuncture, and to find whether there are problems with the conclusion that sham acupuncture has no significant deviation from acupuncture. METHODS: We focused on literature from the last ten years (2002-2011) included in PubMed about controlled clinical trials on acupuncture vs sham acupuncture carried out in Germany. The methods applied in sham acupuncture are summarized, and the difference between the acupuncture and sham groups were analyzed. We measured effects based on the following criteria: acupuncture is effective and superior to sham, acupuncture is effective but similar to sham, both of them have uncertainty regarding treatment effect, or no significant effect. Finally, we reviewed the hypotheses of different scholars on sham acupuncture and analyzed their results.RESULTS: Four types of controlled clinical trials including sham acupuncture on non-Traditional Chinese Medicine acupoints, minimal acupuncture on non-acupoints, placebo needle and sham laser acupuncture had varying results in the 57 articles analyzed. Some showed that acupuncture had a better effect than sham, while some suggest acupuncture and sham had similar effects. In all studies using sham acupuncture on non-therapeutic points, sham electrodes, and sham electro-acupuncture, the therapeutic effect was better than sham. Of the trials, 37 demonstrated that acupuncture had a better effect than sham acupuncture. Only nine trials found no significant difference between acupuncture and sham. Two controlled trials for the same condition (neck pain) conducted by two different German research institutes used the same control method, but reached contradictory conclusions. CONCLUSION: We found problems in conclusions based on results of controlled clinical trials of sham acupuncture in Germany. Therefore, there is still not enough evidence to support the statements that "acupuncture and sham acupuncture have no difference in treatment effect" and "acupuncture is just a placebo effect." The control methods of sham acupuncture used in Germany may not be standardized and may not be suitable for acupuncture clinical trial research. We suggest that research on the methodology of sham acupuncture should be given priority in the design of acupuncture trials in the future. 展开更多
关键词 Acupuncture therapy PLACEBOS Con- trolled clinical trials GERMANY
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