The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model ph...The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate TWS.In this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and predictions.Simulations using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–2008.All the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–08.The correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member simulations.It captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of China.The good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.展开更多
Aiming at improving the observation uncertainty caused by limited accuracy of sensors,and the uncertainty of observation source in clutters,through the dynamic combination of ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) and probabili...Aiming at improving the observation uncertainty caused by limited accuracy of sensors,and the uncertainty of observation source in clutters,through the dynamic combination of ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) and probabilistic data association(PDA),a novel probabilistic data association algorithm based on ensemble Kalman filter with observation iterated update is proposed.Firstly,combining with the advantages of data assimilation handling observation uncertainty in EnKF,an observation iterated update strategy is used to realize optimization of EnKF in structure.And the object is to further improve state estimation precision of nonlinear system.Secondly,the above algorithm is introduced to the framework of PDA,and the object is to increase reliability and stability of candidate echo acknowledgement.In addition,in order to decrease computation complexity in the combination of improved EnKF and PDA,the maximum observation iterated update mechanism is applied to the iteration of PDA.Finally,simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by a typical target tracking scene in clutters.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41405083 and 91437220)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China(Grant No.2015JJ3098)+1 种基金the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,CAS(QYZDY-SSW-DQC012)the Fund Project for The Education Department of Hunan Province(Grant No.16A234)
文摘The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate TWS.In this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and predictions.Simulations using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–2008.All the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–08.The correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member simulations.It captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of China.The good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.
基金Supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.61300214)the Science and Technology Innovation Team Support Plan of Education Department of Henan Province(No.13IRTSTHN021)+5 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province(No.132300410148)the Science and Technology Research Key Project of Education Department of Henan Province(No.13A413066)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China(No.2014M551999)the Funding Scheme of Young Key Teacher of Henan Province Universities(No.2013GGJS-026)the Postdoctoral Fund of Henan Province(No.2013029)the Outstanding Young Cultivation Foundation of Henan University(No.0000A40366)
文摘Aiming at improving the observation uncertainty caused by limited accuracy of sensors,and the uncertainty of observation source in clutters,through the dynamic combination of ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) and probabilistic data association(PDA),a novel probabilistic data association algorithm based on ensemble Kalman filter with observation iterated update is proposed.Firstly,combining with the advantages of data assimilation handling observation uncertainty in EnKF,an observation iterated update strategy is used to realize optimization of EnKF in structure.And the object is to further improve state estimation precision of nonlinear system.Secondly,the above algorithm is introduced to the framework of PDA,and the object is to increase reliability and stability of candidate echo acknowledgement.In addition,in order to decrease computation complexity in the combination of improved EnKF and PDA,the maximum observation iterated update mechanism is applied to the iteration of PDA.Finally,simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by a typical target tracking scene in clutters.
