汇率不确定条件下海外基建投资对钢铁社会库存量的影响——基于中国对东盟基建投资数据的中介效应分析

作为我国优势产业,钢铁工业在国民经济部门发挥着支柱作用。但近年来我国钢铁企业深受存货量过高问题困扰,产能过剩阻碍着我国钢铁行业转型升级之路。随着“一带一路”倡议推进,我国对东盟基建投资增加,东盟国家钢铁需求量水涨船高,吸引我国钢铁企业对外输出产品和技术。本文在汇率不确定条件下,基于中国对东盟基建投资数据构建结构方程模型,探究海外基建投资对钢铁社会库存量的传导路径是否存在部分中介效应。

Comparison on global supply chain purchasing strategies based on supply contracts

In the global supply chain in a setting characterized by exchange rate uncertainties,it is quite necessary to focus on comparative research trying to find out which kind of purchasing strategy is better in different situations.The two common global purchasing strategies,risk sharing(RS)and quantity flexibility(QF),are selected to be compared.Using a real-options approach,the valuation models of RS and QF purchasing contracts are established.By means of binomial lattice technique,numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis of two stochastic dynamic programs are presented.The effects on expected discounted value by changing relative parameters are described clearly.Based on comparative analysis,it is concluded that the QF purchasing strategy is better than that of the RS especially where great volatility exists for exchange rate processes in the global supply chain.

外汇买卖理财的另一道大门（三）

本刊上期介绍了《外汇买卖：理财的另一道大门(二)》，本期和下期，我们将和您一起探讨如何规避外汇买卖中的八大风险。