我国专利技术评价与预测研究

Using fuzzy mathematics method,this paper evaluates and predicts the patent technology of China by analyzing China patent information.

基于TRIZ理论的物联网关键技术专利发展态势及预测分析

通过分析2004~2013年中国物联网关键技术的专利文献,结合TRIZ理论的三大技术进化模式识别分析我国物联网关键技术专利的发展现状,并预测描绘出三大类物联网关键技术发展的进化路径。研究发现:(1)我国物联网关键技术整体仍处于成长期阶段,且各层技术发展不均衡。(2)感知层技术与传感层技术发展较为成熟,未来发展空间较小;多数网络技术与应用服务技术刚刚步入成熟期,技术成长空间很大,但其饱和时间较短,需及时把握发展机遇。(3)异网异构组网技术、高频感知定位技术、海计算以及安全网络架构技术作为未来5年内中国物联网发展的战略性技术,需要进行重点研发和创新。研究旨在为引导物联网关键技术的研发及创新提供参考依据。

Forecasting promising technology using analysis of patent information:Focused on next generation mobile communications

In order to forecast promising technologies in the field of next generation mobile communication, various patent indicators were analyzed such as citation per patent, patent family information, patent share, increase rate, and patent activity. These indicators were quantified into several indexes and then integrated into an evaluation score to provide promising technologies. As a result of the suggested patent analysis, four technologies out of twenty two in details classification were selected, which showed outstanding technology competitiveness, high patent share and increasing rates as well as high recent-patent-ratios and triad-patent-family-ratios. Each of the selected technologies scored more than 10 points in total, and the following four technologies were suggested as promising ones in the field of next generation mobile communication: 1) 3GPP based mobile communication, 2) beyond 4G mobile communication, 3) IEEE 802.16 based mobile communication, which are in medium classification of broadband mobile communication system, and 4) testing/certification system of mobile communication, which is in medium classification of mobile communication testing/certification system.