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融合专家相对推断的贝叶斯网络构建方法 被引量:4
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作者 杜元伟 石方园 杨娜 《计算机工程与应用》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第22期105-112,142,共9页
为了解决依据专家知识推断贝叶斯网络中条件概率表时存在的个体推断信息缺乏有效性以及整体集成结果缺乏科学性的问题,提出了有利于实现判断对象更直观、判断方式更简便的推断信息约简机理,然后将层次分析法中两两比较与判断矩阵分别作... 为了解决依据专家知识推断贝叶斯网络中条件概率表时存在的个体推断信息缺乏有效性以及整体集成结果缺乏科学性的问题,提出了有利于实现判断对象更直观、判断方式更简便的推断信息约简机理,然后将层次分析法中两两比较与判断矩阵分别作为主观条件概率信息的提取手段与信息载体,构建了能够从宏微观推断信息中提取最优条件概率的专家相对推断方法,该方法一方面可以克服传统方法中因专家推断能力有限的现实约束而造成个体推断信息容易缺乏有效性的问题,另一方面也能够对专家个体推断信息进行有效综合集成、保证决策结果的科学性。在此基础上遵循由前至后的推断顺序提出了贝叶斯网络的构建过程,最后应用数值对比分析和案例模拟分析验证了提出方法的科学有效性和应用可行性。 展开更多
关键词 贝叶斯网络 相对推断 专家推断 推断信息约简 条件概率表
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An Expert System Based on Multi-reasoning Mechanism for Port Machine Diagnosis 被引量:1
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作者 Y. Ding G.L. Lin 《Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering》 2011年第2期101-108,共8页
Expert system plays an important role in port machine diagnosis, which aims at automatic equipment test for higher availability and efficiency of port operations. In this study, a port machine diagnosis expert system ... Expert system plays an important role in port machine diagnosis, which aims at automatic equipment test for higher availability and efficiency of port operations. In this study, a port machine diagnosis expert system is proposed based on multi-reasoning mechanism. Relying on the knowledge acquired from the experienced experts in the port machine engineering, the system builds a library of relative experience and a set of rules of reasoning and estimating. Multi-reasoning mechanism that simulates the decision-making process of domain experts is employed to achieve reliable diagnosis results. The reasoning machine integrates artificial neural network, uncertain decision making and decision tree, which complements each other by sustainable growing voting mechanism. The effect of this multi-reasoning mechanism is evaluated and validated by means of Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC). The system incorporating the mechanism is successfully designed, implemented and applied in Shanghai Port. 展开更多
关键词 Port machine diagnosis multi-reasoning mechanism ANN uncertain decision making decision tree.
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