试论东亚区域化发展的影响因素及其前景

东亚区域化进程是全球化进程中的一个表现,但是在其发展过程中有很多的阻碍因素,这些因素种类很多,涉及到政治,文化和经济等诸多方面,总体来看,东亚的区域化是历史发展的必然,但是其进程却是逐渐的、缓慢的,且东亚的政治一体化的前景模糊,整个东亚的区域化发展是受制于全球化发展进程要求的。

实现东亚区域化的最大障碍及对策

全球化与区域化已成为当今世界经济发展的两大潮流,与欧美相比,东亚的区域化相对地落后了。制约东亚区域化的因素很多,本文认为其中最大的障碍是相互之间的不信任,特别是中日之间的不信任以及各自需要修正的区域意识。因此,采用新的历史观,建立互信,修正各自的区域意识是实现东亚经济区域化的重要前提。

从区域治理视角看东盟在东亚区域化中的地位

东亚区域化现状中的争议热点除了大国关系,还有一点在于,东盟在东亚区域化进程中的主导地位是否合理。东盟在东亚区域化中的地位受到质疑,与其政治经济实力的弱小有关,但并不能因此否认东盟的重要意义。从区域治理的视角来观察东盟,可以更全面地认识到东盟的积极意义。东盟治理的独特机制是在长期的国际互动中形成的有效制度形式,构成了东盟相对成熟的制度能力,也是东盟在东亚区域化中发挥主导作用的来源。随着东盟将其区域治理机制扩展到整个东亚区域,切合东亚现实状况的东盟治理机制将为东亚区域化提供不断推进的有利选择。

东亚区域化如何处理与美国的关系——与欧洲一体化的对比分析

作为塑造东亚国际格局的主要力量,美国无疑是东亚区域化进程中最重要的外部因素,它对东亚区域化的消极态度是东亚区域化需要解决的难题之一。通过描述和对比欧洲和东亚区域化进程与美国因素的关系,并借鉴欧洲一体化与美国互动过程中的经验教训,本文提出一些处理东亚区域化与美国关系的建议。东亚区域化不能低估美国问题的难度,需要耐心地推动美国转变对东亚区域化的防范态度,分领域、分层次进行,采取灵活的合作方式。但同时也应当使美国有限度地参与到东亚区域化中,并在各合作框架内设置不同界限。

人民币区域化的现实条件和战略机遇

本文从人民币区域化对中国的重要意义入手,通过对中国总体经济规模、外汇储备规模、外汇金融体制改革以及人民币币值等方面进行分析,认为人民币具备区域化的良好条件;同时,通过对东亚区域化发展、美国次贷危机和国际货币体系动荡对国际环境影响的分析,认为人民币区域化正面临着难得的外部环境。因此,中国应利用有利条件和机遇积极推动人民币的区域化。最后,本文还就如何推动人民币区域化提出了一些政策建议。

区域化:人民币国际化的中短期战略目标

文章在分析中国与东亚区域贸易和投资联系,即人民币区域化的前提条件的基础上,从经济发展面临的主要问题、历史经验的总结以及克服国际货币体系缺陷的尝试三个方面探讨了以人民币区域化作为人民币国际化的中短期目标的深层次原因,并从国内、区域和国际三个层面对人民币区域化的战略意义进行了分析。

Mid-Holocene Climate Variations Recorded by Palaeolake in Marginal Area of East Asian Monsoon: A Multi-proxy Study

Traditionally, the mid-Holocene in most parts of China was thought to be warmer with higher precipitation, resulting from a strong Asian summer monsoon. However, some recent researches have proposed a mid-Holocene drought interval of millennial-scale in East Asian monsoon margin areas. Thus whether mid-Holocene was dry or humid remains an open issue. Here, Zhuyeze palaeolake, the terminal lake of the Shiyang River Drainage lying in Asian monsoon marginal areas, was selected for reconstructing the details of climate variations during the Holocene, especially mid-Holocene, on the basis of a sedimentological analysis. Qingtu Lake (QTL) section of 6.92m depth was taken from Zhuyeze palaeolake. Multi-proxy analysis of QTL section, including grain size, carbonate, TOC, C/N and δ13C of organic matter, was used to document regional climatic changes during 9-3 cal ka B.P. The record shows a major environmental change at 9.0-7.8 cal ka B.P., attributed to a climate trend towards warmth and humidity. This event was followed by a typical regional drought event which occurred during 7.8-7.5 cal ka B.P. And a warm and humid climate prevailed from 7.5 to 5.0 cal ka B.P., attributed to the warm/humid Holocene Optimum in this region. After that, the climate gradually became drier. Moreover, comparison of the climate record from this paper with the summer insolation at 30°N indicates that the climate pattern reflecting the Asian monsoon changes was caused by insolation change.

Simulated seasonal variations in nitrogen wet deposition over East Asia

The regional air quality modeling system Regional Atmospheric Modeling System–Community Multiscale Air Quality was applied to estimate the spatial distribution and seasonal variation in nitrogen wet deposition over East Asia in 2010. The simulated results were evaluated by comparing modeled precipitation rates and ion concentrations, such as ammonium（NH_4~＋）, nitrate（NO_3^-）, and sulfate, in rainwater, against observations obtained from Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia and meteorological stations in China. Comparison of simulated and observed precipitation showed that the modeling system can reproduce seasonal precipitation patterns reasonably well. For major ion species, the simulated results in most cases were in good agreement with those observed. Analysis of the modeled wet deposition distributions indicated that China experiences noticeable variation in wet deposition patterns throughout the year. Nitrogen wet deposition（NH_4~＋ ＋ NO_3^-） during summer and spring accounted for 71% of the annual total（3.9 Tg N yr^（-1））, including 42.7% in summer. Precipitation plays a larger role in the seasonal variation of wet deposition; whereas, aerosol concentrations affect its distribution patterns. In China, the amount of annual nitrogen wet deposition ranged from 1 to 18 kg N ha^（-1）. Nitrogen in wet deposition was mainly in the form of NH_4~＋, accounting for 65.76% of the total amount, and the molar ratio of NH_4~＋∕NO_3^- was mostly more than 1, indicating a relatively larger effect from agricultural activities.

Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model's performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.

Direct Climatic Effect of Aerosols and Interdecadal Variations over East Asia Investigated by a Regional Coupled Climate-Chemistry/Aerosol Model

The direct climatic effect of aerosols for the 1980-2000 period over East Asia was numerically investigated by a regional scale coupled climate-chemistry/ aerosol model, which includes major anthropogenic aerosols （sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon） and natural aerosols （soil dust and sea salt）. Anthropogenic emissions used in model simulation are from a global emission inventory prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report （IPCC AR5）, whereas natural aerosols are calculated online in the model. The simulated 20-year average direct solar radiative effect due to aerosols at the surface was estimated to be in a range of-9- -33 W m-2 over most areas of China, with maxima over the Gobi desert of West China, and-12 W m-2 to -24 W m-2 over the Sichuan Basin, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Aerosols caused surface cooling in most areas of East Asia, with maxima of-0.8℃ to -1.6℃ over the deserts of West China, the Sichuan Basin, portions of central China, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Aerosols induced a precipitation decrease over almost the entire East China, with maxima of-90 mm/year to -150 mm/year over the Sichuan Basin, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the lower reaches of the Yellow River. Interdecadal variation of the climate response to the aerosol direct radiative effect is evident, indicating larger decrease in surface air temperature and stronger per- turbation to precipitation in the 1990s than that in the 1980s, which could be due to the interdecadal variation of anthropogenic emissions.

中国可以从欧洲一体化中学习什么?——从地区比较层面的一种思考

中国与欧洲的相互关系既取决于双边关系的客观进程,同时也取决于双方各自对于对方的认知状况。中国人对于欧洲一体化进程的正面评价不光与欧洲的实际成就有关,而且也与中国人决心投身于东亚区域合作的历史努力息息相关。尽管中国与欧洲无论是历史文化、现行体制、还是地缘政治条件都有很大的差异,但是中国自改革开放以来的历史演进过程表明,中国有许多方面可以从欧洲一体化进程中获得借鉴。