以东盟为先驱的区域经济合作历程研究

后经济危机时代,如何确保经济实现共赢发展?面对国际经济形势持续低迷的现状,我们必须对未来如何深入发展进行深入思考。为此,对以东盟为先驱和奠基石的东亚、东亚太和泛东亚区域经济合作路径的发展历程进行了研究。

Relationship between Meridional Displacement of the Monthly East Asian Jet Stream in the Summer and Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Central and Eastern Pacific

Previous studies have shown that meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) dominates interannual variability of the EAJS in the summer months.This study investigates the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with meridional displacement of the monthly EAJS during the summer.The meridional displacement of the EAJS in June is significantly associated with the tropical central Pacific SST anomaly in the winter of previous years,while displacements in July and August are related to tropical eastern Pacific SST anomalies in the late spring and concurrent summer.The EAJS tends to shift southward in the following June (July and August) corresponding to a warm SST anomaly in the central (eastern) Pacific in the winter (late spring-summer).The westerly anomaly south of the Asian jet stream is a result of tropical central Pacific warm SST anomaly-related warming in the tropical troposphere,which is proposed as a possible reason for southward displacement of the EAJS in June.The late spring-summer warm SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific,however,may be linked to southward displacement of the EAJS in July and August through a meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia.

Combined impact of in-phase and out-of-phase variation between the northern East Asian low and western North Pacific subtropical high on East Asian summer rainfall

East Asian summer rainfall is affected by both the continental northern East Asian low （NEAL） and the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） in the lower troposphere. This study investigates the joint effect of the two circulation factors on East Asian summer rainfall. It is found that the rainfall in East Asia behaves differently in the years with in-phase and out-of-phase variation between the NEAL and WNPSH. When the NEAL and WNPSH vary in phase, i.e. when they are both stronger, the rainfall anomaly shows a dipole pattern in East Asia and displays opposite changes between north and south of 30°N. When the two circulation factors vary out of phase, the rainfall anomaly is concentrated in the Yangtze River valley.

Potential Correlation between the Decadal East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

This study discusses the potential contribution of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)and the evident correlation between the positive PDO and"Southern flood and Northern drought(SFND)"summer rainfall pattern over East China.The mechanism behind this contribution is also discussed.

Joint effects of three oceans on the 2020 super mei-yu

An unexpected super mei-yu struck in 2020 in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin,southern Korea,and southern Japan(hereafter referred to as the mei-yu regions),causing many casualties and huge economic losses.The super mei-yu was characterized by a remarkably early onset(around 1 June),late withdrawal(around 1 August),and intense rainfalI during the mei-yu season.The precipitation in the early onset and late withdrawal stages contributed more than half of the total mei-yu-period precipitation over the mei-yu regions in 2020.In this study,the authors explored the dominant remote forcing of the mei-yu early onset and late withdrawal to understand the mechanisms of this super mei-yu.The early onset can mainly be attributed to an early northward-shifted East Asian jet stream(EAJS).The late withdrawal mainly resulted from the stagnant EAJS and the western North Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) during 10 July to 1 August.Specifically,North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) excited a Rossby wave,which was steered by atmospheric anomalies related to the western North Pacific SSTAs,causing the early northward-shifted EAJS and generating an early onset.The record-breaking warm SSTAs over the North Indian Ocean to South China Sea and the reduced sea-ice concentration(SIC) over the Laptev-East Siberian Sea played important roles in causing the stagnant WPSH and EAJS during July,which led to the late withdrawal.Meanwhile,the SIC anomalies may have caused the inhomogeneous rainfall distribution in the mei-yu regions.Furthermore,projection results suggest that the probability of a late mei-yu withdrawal similar to the 2020 case will increase in the future.Finally,potential predictors of an extreme mei-yu are discussed.

Combined impact of the Pacific–Japan pattern and Mediterranean–northern Eurasia pattern on East Asian summer temperatures

The combined effect of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern and Mediterranean–northern Eurasia (MnE) pattern on East Asian surface air temperature (SAT) during summer is investigated using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis and Climatic Research Unit SAT data over the period of 1958–2016. The results show that the combination of the two patterns in different phases can result in different SAT anomalies. During the in-phase PJ-MnE years, the overlapping of opposite signs of the atmospheric circulations associated with the PJ and MnE patterns results in weak atmospheric circulation and SAT anomalies in central East Asia;during these years, the significant SAT anomalies are over northern East Asia. In contrast, during the out-of-phase PJ-MnE years, the overlapping of the same signs of the atmospheric circulations associated with the PJ and MnE patterns leads to significant atmospheric circulation and SAT anomalies in central East Asia and northern Asia. The analysis in this study indicates that to better understand and predict the variability of East Asian summer SATs, the combined effect of the PJ and MnE patterns should be taken into account.

Two anomalous convective systems in the tropical western Pacific and their influences on the East Asian summer monsoon

By decomposing outgoing Iongwave radiation through empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis, the authors identify two anomalous convective systems in the tropical western Pacific. Besides the classical convective system near the Philippines （PC）, there is another convective system near the Federated States of Micronesia （MC）. As the first EOF component in this region, the variance explained by MC is higher than that by PC. Both MC and PC are regulated by the tropical sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies. While PC is associated with an El Ni^o event, MC is correlated with SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific during summer. It is also found that the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is influenced by these two convective systems. In general, enhanced （suppressed） convection corresponds to an eastwards （westwards） western Pacific subtropical high with weak （strong） intensity. Besides, the summer monsoon rainfall from the Yangtze River basin to Japan tends to increase （decrease） when PC is suppressed （enhanced）. By comparison, the influence of MC is generally weak, with vague signals in the East Asian continent. Moreover, the influence of suppressed convection on the EASM is more significant than that of enhanced convection.

STRUCTURAL AND EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EASTERLY VORTEX OVER THE TROPICAL REGION

By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets (1000-10hPa, 2.5°× 2.5°), the characteristics have been analyzed of the structure and evolution of an easterly vortex over the tropical upper troposphere relating to the east-west direction shift of the subtropical anticyclone over the Western Pacific Ocean. It is shown that there exists a westward shift simultaneously between the anticyclone and the vortex locating south of it. The anticyclone retreats eastward abnormally while the easterly encounters with the westerly around the same longitudes as they move from the opposite directions. The former is an upper weather system, extending from mid-troposphere to the height of 50 hPa with the center locating on 200 hPa. The vertical thermal distribution illustrates the characteristics of being"warm in the upper layer but cold in the lower layer". The divergence effect and the vertical motion change largely within the east and west sides of the easterly vortex and ascending branch transforms to descending branch near its center.

Intraseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon in La Ni?a years

Based on the composite result of six major the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian La Nina events during 1979-2012, the authors reveal summer monsoon （EASM） and summer rainfall in East Asia in La Nino years. Due to a higher SST over the western Pacific warm pool in the proceeding winter and spring, warm pool convection in summer is enhanced, leading to a cyclonic anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high is located more northeastward, and the seasonal march in East Asia is thus accelerated.This anomalous pattern tends to change with the seasonal march, with a maximum anomaly in July. Besides, there is less Mei-yu rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, with an earlier start and termination. The rainfall distribution in East Asia during La Nino years is characterized bya zonal pattern of less rainfall in eastern China and more rainfall over the oceanic region of the western Pacific. By comparison, a meridional pattern is found during El Nino years, with less rainfall in the tropics and more rainfall in the subtropics and midlatitudes. Therefore, the influence of La Nino on the EASM cannot be simply attributed to an antisymmetric influence of El Nino.

Asymmetric association of rainfall and atmospheric circulation over East Asia with anomalous rainfall in the tropical western North Pacific in summer

It is well known that precipitation anomalies in the tropical western North Pacific （WNP） significantly affect circulation and rainfall in East Asia during summer. In this study, the authors further investigated this relationship, by examining the anomalies associated with positive and negative precipitation anomalies in the tropical WNP. The results suggest these anomalies are asymmetric between the enhanced and suppressed WNP rainfall. Positive precipitation anomalies over the WNP, in comparison with their negative counterparts, are more closely related to the meridional teleconnection pattern and rainfall anomalies along the East Asian rain belt. The implications of the results are discussed.

A possible way to extract a stationary relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon

Previous studies have revealed that the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)is not statistically significant when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is in its positive phase.This study explores a possible way to obtain a robust ENSO-EAWM relationship from a dynamical point of view.Here,the authors show that the East Asian winter temperature is significantly and continuously correlated with ENSO when the linear impact of the PDO has been linearly removed from ENSO.Such a conclusion is confirmed by different reanalysis datasets.The dynamical process intensifying the ENSO-EAWM is further investigated from the perspective of whether or not the atmospheric teleconnection between the Pacific and East Asia has established.Compared to the situation associated with the original ENSO in the positive phase of the PDO,the Walker circulation associated with the processed ENSO,from which the effect of North Pacific climate systems has been removed,tends to exert a more pronounced influence on the atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific.Consequently,an anomalous anticyclone emerges in the Kuroshio extension.In this sense,the Pacific-East Asian teleconnection is also well established during the positive phase of the PDO,which favors the impact of ENSO on East Asian winter temperature.

Difference in the influence of Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on South Asian Summer Monsoon intensity before and after 1976/1977

Monthly ocean temperature from ORAS4 datasets and atmospheric data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I/II were used to analyze the relationship between the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) and upper ocean heat content(HC) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean.The monsoon was differentiated into a Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon(SWASM)(2.5°–20°N,35°–70°E) and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon(SEASM)(2.5°–20°N,70°–110°E).Results show that before the 1976/77 climate shift,the SWASM was strongly related to HC in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean.The southern Indian Ocean affected SWASM by altering the pressure gradient between southern Africa and the northern Indian Ocean and by enhancing the Somali cross-equatorial flow.The tropical Pacific impacted the SWASM through the remote forcing of ENSO.After the 1976/77 shift,there was a close relationship between equatorial central Pacific HC and the SEASM.However,before that shift,their relationship was weak.

Impact of two types of La Nia on boreal autumn rainfall around Southeast Asia and Australia

The distinct influences of eastern Pacific （EP） and central Pacific （CP） La Nina on rainfall anomalies over Southeast Asia and Australia in boreal autumn （September to November） are explored in this study. Composite results reveal that CP La Nina gives rise to significant and severe flooding over Southeast Asia and Australia, whereas EP La Nina fails to exert any evident impacts on rainfall over this region. This difference can be attributed to the distinct features of cooling sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） between EP and CP La Nina. With a more westward location and stronger intensity of the negative SSTAs during CP La Nina autumn, the highest and lowest SLP anomalies are substantially enhanced and shift westwards too, further causing intense easterly winds over the western Pacific and westerly anomalies over the Indian Ocean driven by this SLP gradient. Subsequently, robust low-level convergence and high-level divergence is observed over the Maritime Continent and Australia, resulting in significant above-normal rainfall anomalies in those regions. In contrast, weak and eastern Pacific-confined cooling SSTAs during EP La Nina produce correspondingly weak low-level convergence over the Maritime Continent conditions that make it hard for significant rainfall anomalies to arise.

The Second Decadal Leading Mode of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

The first decadal leading mode of East Asian summer rainfall(EASR) is characterized by rainfall anomalies along the East Asian subtropical rain belt. This study focuses on the second decadal leading mode(2DLM), accounting for 17.3% of rainfall decadal variance, as distinct from the other two neighboring modes of EAMR, based on the state-of-the-art in-situ rainfall data.This mode is characterized by a South-China-wet–HuaiheRiver-dry pattern, and is dominated by a quasi-30-yr period. Further analysis reveals the 2DLM corresponds to an enhanced lower-level monsoon jet, an eastward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, and a weakened East Asian upper-level westerly jet flow. The Tibetan Plateau surface temperature and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are closely linked with the 2DLM. The regressed SST pattern indicates the PDO-like pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies may have a teleconnection relationship with the 2DLM of EASR.

Ionospheric absorption and planetary wave activity in East Asia sector

In this paper, we focus on ionospheric absorption in the East Asia sector, and look for manifestations of atmospheric influences in this area. First, a 4-year historical record of absorption measurement at Beijing is presented. This record was obtained by a sweep frequency technique, in which 27-days periodic variation of the absorption level was found to be dominant, appearing in most seasons except winters. Instead, unusual enhancements of the absorption level appeared in winters (winter anomaly), at the meantime the level varied with periods mainly in the range of 8-12 days. Comparing to 27-days period from the Sun, the shorter period oscillations should be related to planetary wave activities in lower atmosphere. Second, fmin data from 5 mid-latitude ionosondes in Japan were used as an indirect but long-term measurement. With the fmin data covering two solar cycles, disturbances with various periods were found to be active around solar maximum years, but the 8-12 days oscillations always existed in winter, showing seasonal dependence instead of connection to solar activity. These results given in this paper demonstrate seasonal and solar cycle-dependent features of the ionospheric absorption in East Asia sector, and confirm the existence of influence from atmosphere-ionosphere coupling in this area, as well as the relationship between ionospheric winter anomaly and planetary wave activity.

Nighttime electron density enhancements at middle and low latitudes in East Asia

Nighttime enhancements in ionospheric electron density at mid- and low-latitudes are investigated by using the critical frequency of the F2-1ayer （foF2） data measured from ionosonde stations at Okinawa （26.3°N, 127.8°E, Geomagnetic 15.3°N）, Yamagawa （31.2°N, 130.6°E, Geomagnetic 20.4°N）, Kokubunji （35.7°N, 139.5°E, Geomagnetic 25.5°N）, and Wakkanai （45.4°N, 141.7°E, Geomagnetic 35.4°N） in East Asia during several solar cycles. The results show that there are obvious seasonal and solar activity dependencies of the nighttime electron density enhancements. The enhancements are termed pre-midnight enhancement and post-midnight enhancement, according to the local time when the enhancement appeared. The former has a higher occurrence probability in summer months than in winter months. In contrast, the latter has a larger occurrence probability in winter months than in summer months. Moreover, the nighttime enhancements in electron density are more likely to occur at lower solar activity. These seasonal and solar activity variations of the nighttime enhancements in electron density can be explained in terms of the combined effects of downward plasma flux from the plasmasphere and the neutral winds.

Impact of El Nio on atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China： Role of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone

This paper presents a review on the impact of El Nio on the interannual variability of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China through the anomalous anticyclone over western North Pacific(WNPAC). It explains the formation mechanisms of the WNPAC and physical processes by which the WNPAC affects the rainfall in China. During the mature phase of El Nio, the convective cooling anomalies over western tropical Pacific caused by the weakened convections trigger up an atmospheric Rossby wave response, resulting in the generation of the WNPAC. The WNPAC can persist from the winter when the El Nio is in its peak to subsequent summer, which is maintained by multiple factors including the sustained presence of convective cooling anomalies and the local air-sea interaction over western tropical Pacific, and the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in tropical Indian and tropical North Atlantic. The WNPAC can influence the atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China not only simultaneously, but also in the subsequent summer after an El Nio year, leading to more rainfall over southern China. The current paper also points out that significant anomalies of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall over southern China occur in El Nio winter but not in La Nio winter, suggesting that El Nio and La Nio have an asymmetric effect. Other issues, including the impact of El Nio diversity and its impact as well as the relations of the factors affecting the persistence of the WNPAC with summer rainfall anomalies in China, are also discussed. At the end of this paper some issues calling for further investigation are discussed.

The projected temporal evolution in the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall by CMIP3 coupled models

The projected temporal evolution in the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall in the 21st century is investigated here,by analyzing the simulated results of 18 coupled models under the 20th century climate experiment and scenario A1B.The multi-model ensemble(MME)mean projects two prominent changes in the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall in the 21st century under scenario A1B.The first change occurs around the 2030s,with a small change before and a large increase afterward.The intensity of the interannual variability increases up to approximately 0.53 mm/d in the 2070s,representing an increase of approximately 30% relative to the early 21st century.The second change happens around the 2070s,with a decrease afterward.By the end of the 21st century,the increase is approximately 12% relative to the early 21st century.The interannual variability of two circulation factors,the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)and the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet(EAJ),are also projected to exhibit two prominent changes around the 2030s and 2070 under scenario A1B,with consistent increases and decreases afterward,respectively.The MME result also projects two prominent changes in the interannual variability of water vapor transported to East Asia at 850 hPa,which occurs separately around the 2040s and 2070s,with a persistent increase and decrease afterward.Meanwhile,the precipitable water interannual variability over East Asia and the western North Pacific is projected to exhibit two prominent enhancements around the 2030s and 2060s and an increase from 0.1 kg/m2 in the early 21st century to 0.5 kg/m2 at the end of the 21st century,implying a continuous intensification in the interannual variability of the potential precipitation.Otherwise,the intensities of the three factors'(except EAJ)interannual variability are all projected to be stronger at the end of the 21st century than that in the early period.These studies indicate that the change of interannual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall is caused by the variability of both the dynamic and thermodynamic variables under scenario A1B.In the early and middle 21st century,both factors lead to an intensified interannual variability of rainfall,whereas the dynamic factors weaken the interannual variability,and the thermodynamic factor intensifies the interannual variability in the late period.

Change of Indonesian Throughflow outflow in response to East Asian Monsoon and ENSO activities since the Last Glacial

The Indonesian Throughflow （ITF） links upper ocean waters of the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, modulates heat and fresh water budgets between these oceans, and in turn plays an important role in global climate change. The climatic phenomena such as the East Asian monsoon and E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） exert a strong influence on flux, water properties and vertical stratification of the ITF. This work studied sediments of Core SO 18462 that was retrieved from the outflow side of the ITF in the Timor Sea in order to investigate response of the ITF to monsoon and ENSO activities since the last glacial. Based on Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes in shells of planktonic foraminiferal surface and thermocline species, seawater temperatures and salinity of both surface and thermocline waters and vertical thermal gradient of the ITF outflow were recon- structed. Records of Core SO18462 were then compared with those from Core 3cBX that was recovered from the western Pa- cific warm pool （WPWP）. The results displayed that similar surface waters occurred in the Timor Sea and the WPWP during the last glacial. Since -16 ka, an apparent difference in surface waters between these two regions exists in salinity, indicated by much fresher waters in the Timor Sea than in the WPWP. In contrast, there is little change in difference of sea surface temper- atures （SSTs）. With regard to thermocline temperature （TT）, it increased until -11.5 ka since the last glacial, and then re- mained an overall unchanged trend in the WPWP but continuously decreased in the Timor Sea towards the late Holocene. Since ~6 ka, thermocline waters have tended to be close to each other in between the Timor Sea and the WPWP. It is indicated that intensified precipitation due to East Asian monsoon and possible ENSO cold phase significantly freshened surface waters over the Indonesian Seas, impeding the ITF surface flow and in turn having enhanced thermocline flow during the Holocene. Consequently, thermocline water of the ITF outflow was cooling and thermocline was shoaling towards the late Holocene. It is speculated that, in addition to strengthening of East Asian winter monsoon, increasing ENSO events during the late Holocene likely played an important role in influencing thermocline depth of the ITF outflow.

Distinctive South and East Asian monsoon circulation responses to global warming

The Asian summer monsoon(ASM)is the most energetic circulation system.Projecting its future change is critical for the mitigation and adaptation of billions of people living in the region.There are two important components within the ASM:South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).Although current state-of-the-art climate models projected increased precipitation in both SASM and EASM due to the increase of atmospheric moisture,their circulation changes differ markedlyÐA robust strengthening(weakening)of EASM(SASM)circulation was projected.By separating fast and slow processes in response to increased CO_(2) radiative forcing,we demonstrate that EASM circulation strengthening is attributed to the fast land warming and associated Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing.In contrast,SASM circulation weakening is primarily attributed to an El Niño-like oceanic warming pattern in the tropical Pacific and associated suppressed precipitation over the Maritime Continent.