21世纪:管理的世纪

东南亚金融风暴与管理问题 东南亚金融风暴爆发到现在已有10个多月之久,至今仍然余威未息。处在邻近边沿的日本等亚洲国家和地区,以及经济来往较多的美国等美洲和西方国家也受到了程度不同的负面影响。

Relief Degree of Land Surface and Population Distribution of Mountainous Areas in China

Evaluation on the population pressure in the mountainous areas is a necessary condition for the protection and good governance. The evaluation depends on accurate population density assessment. Traditional methods used to calculate population density often adopt the administrative region as a scale for statistical analysis. These methods did not consider the effects of the relief degree of land surface(RDLS) on the population distribution. Therefore they cannot accurately reflect the degree of population aggregation, especially in mountainous areas. To explore this issue further, we took the mountainous areas of China as the research area. China has A total area of 666 km2 can be classified as mountainous area,accounting for 69.4% of the country's total landmass. The data used in this research included the digital elevation model(DEM) of China at a scale of 1:1,000,000, National population density raster data, the DEM and the national population density raster data. First, we determined the relief degree of land surface(RDLS). Next, we conducted a correlation analysis between the population distribution and the RDLS using the Statistical Package for Social Science(SPSS). Based on the correlation analysis results and population distribution, this new method was used to revise the provincial population density of themountainous areas. The revised results were used to determine the population pressure of different mountainous areas. Overall, the following results were obtained:(1) The RDLS was low in most mountainous areas(with a value between 0 and 3.5) and exhibited a spatial pattern that followed the physiognomy of China;(2) The relationship between the RDLS and population density were logarithmic, with an R2 value up to 0.798(p<0.05), and the correlation decreased from east to west;(3) The difference between the revised population density(RPD) and the traditional population density(PD) was larger in the southeastern region of China than in the northwestern region;(4) In addition, compared with traditional results, the revised result indicated that the population pressure was larger. Based on these results, the following conclusions were made:(1) the revised method for estimating population density that incorporates the RDLS is reasonable and practical,(2) the potential population pressure in the southeastern mountainous areas is substantial,(3) the characteristics of the terrain in the high mountainous areas are important for the scattered distribution of the population, and(4) the population distribution of mountainous areas in China should be guided by local conditions, such as social, economic, and topographic conditions.

Formation mechanism of reservoir oolitic dolomite in Lower Triassic Feixianguan formation, northeastern Sichuan Basin, southwest China

A series of marine natural gas fields were recently discovered in oolitic dolomites of the Lower Triassic Feixianguan formation, northeastern Sichuan Basin, southwest China. The mechanism forming these reservoir dolomites is debatable, limiting the ability to characterize these reservoir successfully. Based on the investigation of the representative Dukouhe, Luojiazhai, and Puguang areas, this issue was addressed by examining the distribution, petrology, and geochemistry of the dolomites, the most comprehensive study to date was provided. Dolomitization occurred at a very early stage of diagenesis, as shown by the petrological features of the rock fabric. Vadose silt, which is composed primarily of dolomitic clasts, is found in the primary and secondary pores of the oolitic dolomite. This indicates that the overlying strata were subjected to dolomitization when the Feixianguan formation was located in the vadose zone. Therefore, it may be inferred that the dolomitization which occurred before the formation was exposed to meteoric conditions. The spatial distribution and geochemical characteristics of the dolomite indicate that dolomitization occurred as a result of seepage reflux. The degree of dolomitization decreases with increasing distance from the evaporative lagoon. Furthermore, the type and porosity of the dolomite vary in different zones of the upward-shoaling sequence, with the porosity gradually decreasing from the highest layer to the lowest layer. This reflects a close relationship between dolomitization and seawater evaporation during the formation of the dolomite. Geochemical analysis provided further evidence for the relationship between the dolomitization fluid and the coeval seawater. The 87Sr/86Sr and 813C isotopes, as well as the abundances of trace elements, Fe and Mn, indicate that seawater concentrated by evaporation acted as the dolomitization fluid. These results also show that dolomitization most likely occurred in a semi-closed diagenetic environment. Therefore, the main mechanism of oolitic dolomite formation is seepage reflux, which occurred at an early stage of diagenesis.

RESEARCH ON SYSTEM OF FLOOD DISASTER CONTROL AND REDUCTION SUPPORTED BY GIS IN MEDIUM AND SMALL BASINS

Southeast China coastal areas belong to subtropical monsoon climatic zone, thus easily affected by floods resulted from typhoons and rainstorms. Since the areas of river basins are small, rivers flood regulation capacities are low, and therefore flood hazard is grave. In this paper, taking the Yongjiang basin in southeast China as an example, the approaches and methods of geographic information system(GIS) applied to flood disaster control and reduction research on small basin are explored. On GIS help the rainfall runoff calculation model and the river channel flood routing model are developed. And the evaluating flood submerged area and the damage assessment models are built supported by digit elevation models. Lastly the decision support system on GIS supported for flood control in research basin has been set up. This greatly improves flood proofing decision making capacities in river basin, and provides valuable information and a mode for flood prevention and reduction in the medium and small basin. Meanwhile, the research indicates that technologies of GIS provide a powerful tool for flood disaster control.

Snstainable Land Use in Hilly Red Soil Region of South-eastern China

In the Present work, an integrated analysis of natural and socio-economic conditions in the hilly redsoil region of southeastern China is made by nieans of a Geographic Information System. Particular em-phasis lies on soil degradation and other adverse ecological and environmental effects of the prevalent andirrational land-use systems of mono-and valley-agriculture in the region. Moreover, taking into account thesimultaneous existence of enormous potentials and serious constraints and the high diversity and complexityof the biophysical and socio-economic environments, a set of strategies and counterineasures are also prc-posed for appropriate management of environmental resources, in terms of maintaining harmony betweenutilization and conservation of the natural environment, including 1) adjustment of the agricultural structureand optimization of ecological patterns of stereo-agriculture; 2) improvement and integrated exploitation ofthe low-yield lands and wastelands; 3) rehabilitation and conservation of soil and water resources; and 4)establishment of production bases of tropical and subtropical cash crops and fruits.

Model Analysis of the Anthropogenic Aerosol Effect on Clouds over East Asia

A coupled meteorology and aerosol/chemistry model WRF-Chem （Weather Research and Forecast model coupled with Chemistry） was used to conduct a pair of simulations with present-day （PD） and preindustrial （P1） emissions over East Asia to examine the aerosol indirect effect on clouds. As a result of an increase in aerosols in January, the cloud droplet number increased by 650 cm-3 over the ocean and East China, 400 cm-3 over Central and Southwest China, and less than 200 cm-3 over North China. The cloud liquid water path （LWP） increased by 40-60 g m-2 over the ocean and Southeast China and 30 g m-2 over Central China; the LWP in- creased less than 5 g m-2 or decreased by 5 g m2 over North China. The effective radius （Re） decreased by more than 4 pm over Southwest, Central, and Southeast China and 2 pm over North China. In July, variations in cloud properties were more uniform; the cloud droplet number increased by approximately 250400 cm-3, the LWP increased by approximately 30-50 g m 2, and Re decreased by approximately 3 μm over most regions of China. In response to cloud property changes from PI to PD, shortwave （SW） cloud radiative m-2 over the ocean and 10 forcing strengthened by 30 W W m-2 over Southeast China, and it weakened slightly by approximately 2-10 W m-2 over Central and Southwest China in January. In July, SW cloud radiative forcing strengthened by 15 W m-2 over Southeast and North China and weakened by l0 W m-2 over Central China. The different responses of SW cloud radiative forcing in different regions was related to cloud feedbacks and natural variability.

The Importance of Hair Goats in Turkey

Of the goat population in Turkey, 98% of the goat population consists of hair goats. They are the prime breeds of goats and they can be bred in the Mediterranean, Aegean and Southeast regions of Turkey. Hair goats are the main income for their breeders. The goats are typically raised in scarce conditions, thus giving rise to greater yield of meat. In spite of the fact that the studies are limited to hair goats bred by the public, in 2005, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock （TAGEM） initiated a countywide reclamation project aiming to identify the regional differences and characteristics of the hair goats. This paper focuses on the yearly quantity of hair goats＇ produce, particularly observing the proportions of goat milk, meat and other animal produce, and to highlight the importance of the hair goats. Recommendations are made from these findings.

The Spread of Deism in the Reformed Church in the South Eastern Region of the Kingdom of Hungary at the Turn of the 18th- 19th Century

Deism is one of the branches of radical Enlightenment which states that God creates the World, but he does not intervene into its operation. Theological dogmas are completely useless because these rules are not necessary for the prosperity of people. These ideas were very dangerous to Christianity; however, they were widespread in many parts of Europe in the 18th century. The Reformed Diocese of Bekes was located in the south eastern area of the Kingdom of Hungary, whose followers practised an essentially rural way of life; therefore, they hardly read any scientific and philosophical works. In spite of this fact, the spread of the ideas characteristic of deism can be observed in numerous dioceses. The reception of deism in southeast Hungary can be witnessed not in the traditional intellectual documents （school curriculum, translations, and philosophical treatises）, but in the documents of the ecclesiastical government： Church attendance records, documents of the proceedings of the ecclesiastical courts. With the detailed analysis of the ecclesiastical administration documents of the Reformed Church, this study investigates how folk religion relates to deism and the criticism of religion by the radical Enlightenment.

Cenozoic tectonic and geomorphic evolution of the Longxi region in northeastern Tibetan Plateau interpreted from detrital zircon

The Longxi region contains different kinds of Cenozoic sediments, including eolian deposits, reworked loess, fluvial and lacustrine deposits. The provenance evolution of these sediments is of great significance in exploring the uplift, tectonic deformation and associated with geomorphic evolution of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this paper, we used the single-grain zircon provenance analysis to constrain the provenances for the Paleogene alluvial conglomerates and for the Neogene fluvial-lacustrine sediments, and compared them with results from the loess deposits since the Miocene. The results show that： （1） the Paleogene alluvial conglomerates contain a large number of detrital zircons ranging from 560 to 1100 Ma that were derived from the Yangzi Block. However, the sediments of early Miocene have much fewer zircons of this age span, which are characterized by an abundance of zircon ages in the ranges of 200 360 Ma. This indicates that the Paleogcne alluvial conglomerates mainly come from the middle and/or southern West Qinling, and the early Miocene sediments are primarily from the northern West Qinling; （2） Late Neogene fluvial sediments （11.5 Ma onward） in Tianshui-Qinan region are dominated by zircon ages of 380-450 Ma. This zircon population is similar to that of the exposed intrusive rocks of southern part of the Liupan Mountains, implying that the southern part of Liupan Mountains probably had already uplifted by 11.5 Ma; （3） Late Miocene lacustrine sediments in Tianshui region have a zircon age spectra that is remarkably different from coeval fluvial deposits, but is similar to the zircon age distributions of the Miocene loess in Qinan region, late Miocene-Pliocene Hipparion red clay and Quaternary loess. This indicates that fine particles within these Miocene lacustrine sediments in Tianshui region may be dominated by aeolian materials. This study reveals that provenance changes of Cenozoic sediments in Tianshui-Qinan region and its geomorphic evolution are closely related to the multi-stage uplift of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In particular, the major uplift of the Northem Tibetan Plateau during late Oligocene-early Miocene may have not only provided the source areas and wind dynamic conditions for the deposits of the Miocene loess, but also provided the geomorphic conditions for its accumulation.