The environmental impact caused by local people （ecological footprint of consumption, EFc） and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens （ecological footprint of production, EFp） in West Jilin Pro...The environmental impact caused by local people （ecological footprint of consumption, EFc） and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens （ecological footprint of production, EFp） in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint （EF） method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecological overshoots. Population （P）, GDP per capita （A1）, quadratic term of GDP per capita （A2）, urbanization （Tα1）, and quadratic term of urbanization （Ta2） were important influencing factors of EFc, among which Tα2 and Tα1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFc. A1, A2 and Tα2 were important influencing factors of EFp, among which A2 and A1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFp. In 1986-2006, the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis did not exist between A2 and EF （both EFc and EFp）, but did between Tα2 and EF. The results indicate that enhancing the urbanization process and diversifying economic sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce the environmental impact of West Jilin Province. Moreover, importance should be attached to improve the eco-efficiency of resource exploitation and consumption.展开更多
Dynamic environmental testing is an effective means to study the energy and long-term hygrothermal performance of building enclosures. Southeast University is designing and building a large-scale dynamic environment s...Dynamic environmental testing is an effective means to study the energy and long-term hygrothermal performance of building enclosures. Southeast University is designing and building a large-scale dynamic environment simulation testing facility. It can simuhaneously and dynamically simulate temperature, relative humidity, infrared solar radiation, UV radiation, and precipitation. A transformation is needed to predict the energy and long-term hygrothermal performance of building enclosures under real service conditions using data obtained from accelerated tests.展开更多
A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for ...A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for three decades(2010–2040).As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs(EATs_int)is influenced mainly by the ocean,we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature(SST)multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to 1999.Based on the lead-lag connections,a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as predictors.The hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_int.Therefore,the prediction for EATs_int(Re_EATs_int)was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic modes.External forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global warming.Using monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),we predicted the curve of EATs(EATs_trend)relative to1970–1999 by a second-order fit.EATs_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs(Re_EATs).It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually thereafter.Compared with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models,Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean,indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(No.2004CB418507)
文摘The environmental impact caused by local people （ecological footprint of consumption, EFc） and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens （ecological footprint of production, EFp） in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint （EF） method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecological overshoots. Population （P）, GDP per capita （A1）, quadratic term of GDP per capita （A2）, urbanization （Tα1）, and quadratic term of urbanization （Ta2） were important influencing factors of EFc, among which Tα2 and Tα1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFc. A1, A2 and Tα2 were important influencing factors of EFp, among which A2 and A1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFp. In 1986-2006, the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis did not exist between A2 and EF （both EFc and EFp）, but did between Tα2 and EF. The results indicate that enhancing the urbanization process and diversifying economic sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce the environmental impact of West Jilin Province. Moreover, importance should be attached to improve the eco-efficiency of resource exploitation and consumption.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2006BAJ04A01 and 2006BAJ03A04-01)
文摘Dynamic environmental testing is an effective means to study the energy and long-term hygrothermal performance of building enclosures. Southeast University is designing and building a large-scale dynamic environment simulation testing facility. It can simuhaneously and dynamically simulate temperature, relative humidity, infrared solar radiation, UV radiation, and precipitation. A transformation is needed to predict the energy and long-term hygrothermal performance of building enclosures under real service conditions using data obtained from accelerated tests.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41375085,41421004)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05090406)
文摘A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for three decades(2010–2040).As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs(EATs_int)is influenced mainly by the ocean,we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature(SST)multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to 1999.Based on the lead-lag connections,a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as predictors.The hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_int.Therefore,the prediction for EATs_int(Re_EATs_int)was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic modes.External forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global warming.Using monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),we predicted the curve of EATs(EATs_trend)relative to1970–1999 by a second-order fit.EATs_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs(Re_EATs).It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually thereafter.Compared with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models,Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean,indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.
