China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China's and the United States' economies. The result of the survey shows ...China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China's and the United States' economies. The result of the survey shows that economists are generally optimistic about the outlook of both countries'economies. Respondents believed that great differences exist in the components of industrial competitiveness of China and the US; while the US leads in terms of talent, creativity, social system, industrial system integrity and financing, cost is the biggest barrier to improvement in US competitiveness. In comparison, China leads in infrastructure, cost competitiveness and government driving force but inadequate technology is the biggest barrier to improvement in China's competitiveness. Respondents believed that in the coming 20years, China's economic growth will be 5.2% and US growth will be 2.4%. Around 2034, China's economic aggregate will equal the US level but it will take over 60 years for China to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP. China's manufacturing technology will equal the US level around 2045. More than 62% of economists believed that the Trump administration will effectively re-shore manufacturing and the average score they give to Trump's "first 100 days "" in office is 76 points. More than 61% of economists considered it unlikely that a serious trade war will break out between China and the US. They generally believed that China and the US cooperate and compete with each other and that China-US trade enjoys great potential to grow. According to the survey, respondents are more confident about China's debt sustainability in comparison with the US.展开更多
Under global production network,export cannot represent a country's gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of export after deducting the input of intermediate goods and re-exp...Under global production network,export cannot represent a country's gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of export after deducting the input of intermediate goods and re-export after value-added return.Ownership-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of territory-based gains from trade after further deducting the trade in value added(TVA) realized through the inflow of foreign factors.By creating a multicountry input and output model,this paper calculates the territory-based gains from trade,ownership-based gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's export,as well as valueadded return and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's import.This paper has arrived at the following conclusions:behind China's status as the largest goods exporting country in the world,most of Chinese exports contribute to the gains of foreign countries;value addition for foreign countries realized through China's export and value-added return realized through China's import mostly come from Taiwan region,Japan and South Korea in East Asia;a considerable part of gains from trade for the United States realized through China-US trade is achieved through indirect trade.展开更多
Using the trade statistical method based on asset ownership,this paper recalculated Sino-US bilateral trade volume and the result indicates that against traditional trade statistics,Chinese exports to the US reduced b...Using the trade statistical method based on asset ownership,this paper recalculated Sino-US bilateral trade volume and the result indicates that against traditional trade statistics,Chinese exports to the US reduced by an average of 51%while Chinese imports from the US increased by an average of 41%between 2004 and 2010.Balance of trade is in the range between US$2,189 billion of deficit and US$12.77 billion of surplus on the part of China,which are far smaller than the balance of Sino-US trade calculated by traditional statistical method.In order to reflect the real scale of China's foreign trade and effectively respond to Sino-US trade frictions,it is necessary for China to establish its trade statistics system based on asset ownership.展开更多
Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening th...Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening the welfare state. Intemationally, Trumponomics embraces protectionism and nativism with a focus on US economic interests. Trumponomics caters to the lower-middle classes, a reflection of the country's current economic and diplomatic challenges. Trumponomics will bring uncertainty to China-US economic and trade relations. China should carefully study the policies of the Trump administration and prepare contingency plans.展开更多
The article studies trade in goods between China and the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and between the European Union (EU) and LAC during the years from 2000 to 2013. From the beginning of the 21st ...The article studies trade in goods between China and the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and between the European Union (EU) and LAC during the years from 2000 to 2013. From the beginning of the 21st century, big changes in LAC's trade patterns have been observed. The article contains possible explanation of them. The analysis is based on the ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) data. Merchandise trade between China and LAC grew significantly over the period from 2000 to 2013. In 2013, the value of merchandise exports from China was higher than from the EU-28 in the case of 12 LAC countries. Chinese imports of goods surpassed the European ones in five countries in the region. In order to increase its exports of manufactured goods and imports of natural resources and agricultural commodities, China combines trade arrangements with foreign aid policy. Besides, a rapid development of bilateral diplomatic ties between China and LAC is observed. The EU-LAC trade relations have worsened during the last decade mainly due to financial crisis and development of the EU-Asia trade relations.展开更多
文摘China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China's and the United States' economies. The result of the survey shows that economists are generally optimistic about the outlook of both countries'economies. Respondents believed that great differences exist in the components of industrial competitiveness of China and the US; while the US leads in terms of talent, creativity, social system, industrial system integrity and financing, cost is the biggest barrier to improvement in US competitiveness. In comparison, China leads in infrastructure, cost competitiveness and government driving force but inadequate technology is the biggest barrier to improvement in China's competitiveness. Respondents believed that in the coming 20years, China's economic growth will be 5.2% and US growth will be 2.4%. Around 2034, China's economic aggregate will equal the US level but it will take over 60 years for China to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP. China's manufacturing technology will equal the US level around 2045. More than 62% of economists believed that the Trump administration will effectively re-shore manufacturing and the average score they give to Trump's "first 100 days "" in office is 76 points. More than 61% of economists considered it unlikely that a serious trade war will break out between China and the US. They generally believed that China and the US cooperate and compete with each other and that China-US trade enjoys great potential to grow. According to the survey, respondents are more confident about China's debt sustainability in comparison with the US.
基金the outcome of major program of the National Social Sciences Foundation Research on the Upgraded Objectives and Strategic Innovation for the Transformation and Development of Major Trading Nations(Grant No.13&ZD048)
文摘Under global production network,export cannot represent a country's gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of export after deducting the input of intermediate goods and re-export after value-added return.Ownership-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of territory-based gains from trade after further deducting the trade in value added(TVA) realized through the inflow of foreign factors.By creating a multicountry input and output model,this paper calculates the territory-based gains from trade,ownership-based gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's export,as well as valueadded return and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's import.This paper has arrived at the following conclusions:behind China's status as the largest goods exporting country in the world,most of Chinese exports contribute to the gains of foreign countries;value addition for foreign countries realized through China's export and value-added return realized through China's import mostly come from Taiwan region,Japan and South Korea in East Asia;a considerable part of gains from trade for the United States realized through China-US trade is achieved through indirect trade.
基金General Program of National Social Sciences Fund "Development and Application Research for theModel of Estimating the Structure of Sino-US Trade Interests(Approval No.13BJL055)"
文摘Using the trade statistical method based on asset ownership,this paper recalculated Sino-US bilateral trade volume and the result indicates that against traditional trade statistics,Chinese exports to the US reduced by an average of 51%while Chinese imports from the US increased by an average of 41%between 2004 and 2010.Balance of trade is in the range between US$2,189 billion of deficit and US$12.77 billion of surplus on the part of China,which are far smaller than the balance of Sino-US trade calculated by traditional statistical method.In order to reflect the real scale of China's foreign trade and effectively respond to Sino-US trade frictions,it is necessary for China to establish its trade statistics system based on asset ownership.
文摘Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening the welfare state. Intemationally, Trumponomics embraces protectionism and nativism with a focus on US economic interests. Trumponomics caters to the lower-middle classes, a reflection of the country's current economic and diplomatic challenges. Trumponomics will bring uncertainty to China-US economic and trade relations. China should carefully study the policies of the Trump administration and prepare contingency plans.
文摘The article studies trade in goods between China and the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and between the European Union (EU) and LAC during the years from 2000 to 2013. From the beginning of the 21st century, big changes in LAC's trade patterns have been observed. The article contains possible explanation of them. The analysis is based on the ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) data. Merchandise trade between China and LAC grew significantly over the period from 2000 to 2013. In 2013, the value of merchandise exports from China was higher than from the EU-28 in the case of 12 LAC countries. Chinese imports of goods surpassed the European ones in five countries in the region. In order to increase its exports of manufactured goods and imports of natural resources and agricultural commodities, China combines trade arrangements with foreign aid policy. Besides, a rapid development of bilateral diplomatic ties between China and LAC is observed. The EU-LAC trade relations have worsened during the last decade mainly due to financial crisis and development of the EU-Asia trade relations.