1982～1999年我国东部暖温带植被生长季节的时空变化

利用1982～1996年5个站点的植物群落物候观测数据和物候累积频率拟合法,划分各站逐年的植被物候季节,并确定各季节初日对应的当地归一化差值植被指数(NDVI)阈值。在此基础上,通过对物候站各年NDVI曲线的年型聚类分析和区内所有像元逐年NDVI曲线的空间聚类分析,实现植被物候季节的时空外推估计,从而得到我国暖温带落叶阔叶林地区1982～1999年植被物候季节初日和生长季节长度的时空格局。结果表明,多年平均的植被物候季节初日和生长季节长度呈现出主要随纬度和海拔高度变化的空间格局。在这18年中,整个区域的物候春季初日以提前为主,且以华北平原提前的趋势最为显著;夏季、秋季和冬季初日以推迟为主,也以华北平原推迟的趋势比较显著;因此,华北平原植被生长季节呈显著延长的趋势。本文揭示的植被物候季节初日的趋势变化与华北地区各季节气温的趋势变化基本吻合;植被生长季节的趋势变化特征与欧洲单种植物物候生长季节,以及欧亚大陆和我国温带遥感植被生长季节的趋势变化基本一致,但植被生长季节初、终日期和长度的趋势值明显大于后者,表明该地区植物物候对于气候变暖的响应更加敏感。

Climate Warming-induced Upward Shift of Moso Bamboo Population on Tianmu Mountain,China

Although paid to upward shift response to global phenomenon at low zones did not receive increasing attention has been of plant species in altitude as a warming, research on this altitudinal and low latitudinal enough attention. In this study, an investigation was carried out to test the relationship between the upward spread of Moso bamboo （Phyllostachys pubescens） along altitudinal gradient and the increasing air temperature over the past decade within the Tianmu Mountain region, situated in southeastern China. Results showed that the peak elevation of Moso bamboo population establishment rose by an average of 9.8 m （±2.7 m） during the past decade and significant correlation existed with mean annual temperature （P 〈 0.0001, n = 339） but not with annual precipitation （P = 0.7, n = 339）, indicating that the upward shift of Moso bamboo along altitudinal gradients was driven primarily by warming temperatures. This upward shift could potentially reduce biodiversity by altering the species composition of the ecosystem. However, there is also the potential for increased carbon sequestration capacity of local forest systems, which would produce an additional carbon sink to combat rising atmospheric C02 concentrations and future global warming.

Low-Level Jets over Southeast China: The Warm Season Climatology of the Summer of 2003

The southwesterly low-level jet （LLJ） over southeast China in the summer of 2003 is analyzed in this study. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） Final （FNL） operational global analysis data on 1.0-1.0-degree grids at 6-h intervals. The major criteria for choosing the LLJ ineluded the following： a maximum wind speed equal to or greater than 12.0 m s-1, a wind direction of between 180° and 270°, and the height of wind maximum at 900-700 hPa, not confined to single pressure level. The results show that the LLJs over southeast China dominate at 850 and 800 hPa. These LLJs are closely associated with the topography of this area and tend to locate regions with large terrain gradients, including the northeastern and eastem Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Under the influence of mid-latitude westerly winds, the LLJs above 750 hPa move northward to the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. Com- pared to the ten-year （2000-2009） mean climate condi- tions, the LLJs in the warm season of summer 2003 were exceptionally active and strong, as reflected by the posi- tive anomalies of LLJ occurrence numbers and wind speed. In addition, the 2003 LLJs showed strong diurnal variation, especially at pressure levels below 800 hPa. The majority of the LLJs appeared between midnight and the early moming hours （before 8 a.m.）. Finally, the summary of LLJ grid numbers indicates that more than 80% of LLJs in June and July 2003 occurred within the 33-d rainy period. Thus, these LLJs are directly related to the anomalously heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin.

How Well does BCC_CSM1.1 Reproduce the 20th Century Climate Change over China?

The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） ex- periments performed by the Beijing Climate Center cli- mate system model （BCC_CSM1.1） is evaluated regard- ing the time evolutions of the global and China mean sur- face air temperature （SAT） and surface climate change over China in recent decades. BCC CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0. By the year 2005, the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming am- plitude of approximately I℃ in China over the 1961- 1990 mean, which is consistent with observation. The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC CSM1.1, with the warmest occurring in winter. Al- though the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1, the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model. For the precipitation change, BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring, with drought in Southeast China. After removing the linear trend, the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.

Preliminary multiproxy surface air temperature field reconstruction for China over the past millennium

We present the first millennial-length gridded field reconstruction of annual temperature for China, and analyze the reconstruction for spatiotemporal changes and associated uncertainties, based on a network of 415 well-distributed and accurately dated climatic proxy series.The new reconstruction method is a modified form of the point-by-point regression (PPR) approach.The main difference is the incorporation of the "composite plus scale" (CPS) and "Regularized errors-in-variables" (EIV) algorithms to allow for the assimilation of various types of the proxy data.Furthermore, the search radius is restricted to a grid size; this restriction helps effectively exclude proxy data possibly correlated with temperature but belonging to a different climate region.The results indicate that: 1) the past temperature record in China is spatially heterogenic, with variable correlations between cells in time; 2) the late 20th century warming in China probably exceeds mean temperature levels at any period of the past 1000 years, but the temperature anomalies of some grids in eastern China during the Medieval climate anomaly period are warmer than during the modern warming; 3) the climatic variability in the eastern and western regions of China was not synchronous during much of the last millennium, probably due to the influence of the Tibetan Plateau.Our temperature reconstruction may serve as a reference to test simulation results over the past millennium, and help to finely analyze the spatial characteristics and the driving mechanism of the past temperature variability.However, the lower reconstruction skill scores for some grid points underline that the present set of available proxy data series is not yet sufficient to accurately reconstruct the heterogeneous climate of China in all regions, and that there is the need for more highly resolved temperature proxies, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau.