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中国人均GDP的FAR模型
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作者 候青霞 张德生 +1 位作者 武新乾 张慧芳 《重庆文理学院学报(自然科学版)》 2007年第6期41-44,共4页
针对我国人均GDP的非平稳特征,根据1949—2005年我国人均GDP的统计资料,建立我国人均GDP的函数系数自回归模型(FAR模型),并将模型用于我国人均GDP的预测分析.计算结果表明,FAR模型能较好地解决我国人均GDP的估计和预测问题,预测精度较高.
关键词 中国人均gdp FAR模型 AR模型 多项式样条估计 预测
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基于ARIMA模型的中国人均GDP时间序列分析
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作者 李田莉 《中国经贸》 2016年第11期84-85,共2页
利用全国1978—2014年人均GDP数据值,应用基于时间序列模型的分析方法,建立了人均GDP的ARIMA模型,得出2015-2020年中国人均GDP短期预测值。建立人均GDP的ARIMA模型对探讨经济发展状况,研究经济增长规律,制定相应宏观经济政策具有... 利用全国1978—2014年人均GDP数据值,应用基于时间序列模型的分析方法,建立了人均GDP的ARIMA模型,得出2015-2020年中国人均GDP短期预测值。建立人均GDP的ARIMA模型对探讨经济发展状况,研究经济增长规律,制定相应宏观经济政策具有参考意义。 展开更多
关键词 时间序列 中国人均gdp ARIMA(p d q)
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中国面临“中等收入陷阱”的风险及路径选择
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作者 韩旭 《西南石油大学学报(社会科学版)》 2013年第3期15-18,29,共5页
中国人均GDP进入中等收入国家水平后,经济得到重大发展的同时也出现一系列问题,比如:收入差距持续拉大、腐败多发、社会不稳、产业结构升级难和经济发展滞缓等,使中国面临跨越"中等收入陷阱"的各种风险。因此,在剖析可能阻碍... 中国人均GDP进入中等收入国家水平后,经济得到重大发展的同时也出现一系列问题,比如:收入差距持续拉大、腐败多发、社会不稳、产业结构升级难和经济发展滞缓等,使中国面临跨越"中等收入陷阱"的各种风险。因此,在剖析可能阻碍中国跨越"中等收入陷阱"因素的基础上,提出我国跨越"中等收入陷阱"的可能路径:调整收入分配关系,缩小收入差距;稳步推进城镇化;建立廉洁高效政府;转变经济发展方式;制止官僚主义作风和调整产业结构等。 展开更多
关键词 中等收入 中等收入陷阱 中国人均gdp 城镇化 经济发展方式
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Effects of Industrial Relocation on Chinese Regional Economic Growth Disparities: Based on System Dynamics Modeling 被引量:3
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作者 WU Aizhi LI Guoping +1 位作者 SUN Tieshan LIANG Yusheng 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第6期706-716,共11页
The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of syste... The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of system dynamics(SD) modeling and the relationship between industrial relocation and regional economic growth, we construct a model of the interrelationship between the two aforementioned phenomena. The model is an effective and creative exploration for examining effects of industrial relocation on Chinese regional economic growth disparities. The SD model is employed in this study to build an inter-regional labor migration SD model, an inter-regional capital migration SD model, an intra-industry SD model, an intra-regional population SD model, and an intra-regional SD model which are based on realities in labor and capital flow from the view of industrial relocation. VENSIM software is utilized to perform a system simulation based on the data of the eastern, middle, and western regions from 2000 to 2010. Results show that industrial relocation gradually narrows the relative disparity in GDP among the three regions. Moreover, the absolute one is enlarged continuously. The absolute and relative disparities in per capita GDP among eastern, middle, and western regions generally exhibit decreasing trends. 展开更多
关键词 industrial relocation economic growth disparity system dynamics (SD) modeling China
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The Relationship Between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Four Asian Countries 被引量:1
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作者 Mahdi Safdari Javad Keramati Majid Mahmoodi 《Chinese Business Review》 2011年第2期112-118,共7页
In this study, we use the ARDL bounds testing procedure suggested by Pesaran (2001) and modified version of the Granger causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to test the robustness of the causality e... In this study, we use the ARDL bounds testing procedure suggested by Pesaran (2001) and modified version of the Granger causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to test the robustness of the causality effect between military expenditure and economic growth in 4 Asian countries, two industrial countries (South Korea and Malaysia), and others are developing countries (Iran and Saudi Arabia), from 1988 to 2006 years, data series obtained from word development indicator (WDI). With respect to that military expenditure can affect economic growth so increase in GDP can increase or decrease military expenditure, too. We investigate the causality relationship between military expenditure and economic growth because the purpose of military expenditures is to provide national security. The results show that Iran and Saudi Arabia don't have any causality relationship between military expenditure and economic growth. The results of South Korea show a unidirectional relationship from LGDP (Logarithm of real GDP) and LGDPK (logarithm of real GDP per capita) to military expenditure, and in Malaysia there is unidirectional relationship from LGDPK to military expenditure. The comparison of these results, we can say that developing countries don't have meaningful relationship between military expenditure and economic growth, but we can find unidirectional or bidirectional relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in industrial countries. 展开更多
关键词 economic growth military expenditure ARDL bound test
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The Role of China's High-Tech Zones in Its Regional Economic Development 被引量:2
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作者 刘瑞明 赵仁杰 《China Economist》 2016年第5期44-56,共13页
National high-tech industrial development zones represent a major strategy of the Chinese government in developing high-tech industries and spurring regional economic growth. The effect of this policy is yet to be pro... National high-tech industrial development zones represent a major strategy of the Chinese government in developing high-tech industries and spurring regional economic growth. The effect of this policy is yet to be proven. Based on the panel data of 283 Chinese cities between 1984 and 2012, this paper investigates the effect of high-tech zones on regional economic development. Empirical results suggest that first, national hightech zones have remarkably enhanced regional GDP and per capita GDP growth, and this conclusion still holds true after multiple rounds of robustness test; second, the economic effect of national high-tech zones is subject to diminishing marginal return and compared with higher-tier cities, lower-tier cities benefited more from the creation of national hightech zones. This paper concludes that national high-tech zones where special policies are experimented and offered not only drive economic development but, if properly distributed across regions, may help reduce regional economic disparities as well. The results of this study provide important implications for the future distribution of national high-tech zones and the creation of other relevant policies. 展开更多
关键词 national high-tech zones regional economic growth difference-in-differences method
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