On-site monitoring is very important for understanding formation mechanisms of frost hazards frequently occurring in pipeline foundation soils and for designing and deploying according mitigative measures in permafros...On-site monitoring is very important for understanding formation mechanisms of frost hazards frequently occurring in pipeline foundation soils and for designing and deploying according mitigative measures in permafrost regions.Significant thaw subsidence of ground surfaces along the ChinaRussia Crude Oil Pipeline(CRCOP) from Mo'he to Daqing,Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China have been observed at some segments underlain by ice-rich warm(>1.0°C) permafrost since the official operation in January 2011.Recent monitoring results of the thermal states of foundation soils at the kilometer post(KP) 304 site along the CRCOP are presented in this paper.The results indicate that during the period from 2012 to 2014,shallow soils(at the depths from0.8 to 4.0 m from ground surface) has warmed by approximately 1.0°C in the lateral range of 1.2 to 2.1 maway from the pipeline axis,and deeper permafrost(such as at the depth of 15 m,or the depth of zero annual amplitude of ground temperatures) by 0.08°C per year 4 m away from the pipe axis,and 0.07°C per year 5 m away from the pipeline axis.The results indicate an all-season talik has developed around and along the CRCOP.The thaw bulb,with a faster lateral expansion(compared with the vertical growth),enlarges in summer and shrinks in winter.This research will provide important references and bases for evaluating thermal influences of warm pipeline on permafrost and for design,construction,operation and maintenance of pipelines in permafrost regions.展开更多
Knowledge of the spatial distribution of permafrost and the effects of climate on ground temperature are important for land use and infrastructure development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP). Different permafrost mo...Knowledge of the spatial distribution of permafrost and the effects of climate on ground temperature are important for land use and infrastructure development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP). Different permafrost models have been developed to simulate the ground temperature and active layer thickness(ALT). In this study, Temperature at Top of Permafrost(TTOP) model, Kudryavtsev model and modified Stefan solution were evaluated against detailed field measurements at four distinct field sites in the Wudaoliang Basin to better understand the applicability of permafrost models. Field data from 2012 to 2014 showed that there were notable differences in observed ground temperatures and ALTs within and among the sites. The TTOP model is relatively simple, however, when driven by averaged input values, it produced more accurate permafrost surface temperature(Tps) than the Kudryavtsev model. The modified Stefan solution resulted in a satisfactory accuracy of 90%, which was better than the Kudryavtsev model for estimating ALTs. The modified Stefan solution had the potential of being applied to climate-change studies in the future. Furthermore, additional field investigations over longer periods focusing on hydrology, which has significant influence on permafrost thaw, are necessary. These efforts should employ advanced measurement techniques to obtain adequate and extensive local parameters that will help improve model accuracy.展开更多
Northeastern China has the second largest expanse of permafrost in China,primarily known as Xing'an-Baikal permafrost.Located on the southeastern edges of the Eurasian cryolithozone,the permafrost is thermally uns...Northeastern China has the second largest expanse of permafrost in China,primarily known as Xing'an-Baikal permafrost.Located on the southeastern edges of the Eurasian cryolithozone,the permafrost is thermally unstable and ecologically sensitive to external changes.The combined impacts of climatic,environmental,and anthropogenic changes cause 3-dimensional degradation of the permafrost.To predict these changes on the southern limit and ground temperature of permafrost in Northeastern China,an equivalent latitude model (ELM) for the mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGSTs) was proposed,and further improved to take into account of the influences of vegetation and snow-cover based on observational data and using the SHAW model.Using the finite element method and assuming a climate warming rate of 0.048°C a-1,the ELM was combined with the unsteady-state heat conduction model to simulate permafrost temperatures at present,and to predict those after 50 and 100 a.The results indicate that at present,sporadic permafrost occurs in the zones with MAGSTs of 1.5°C or colder,and there would still be a significant presence of permafrost in the zones with the present MAGSTs of 0.5°C or colder after 50 a,and in those of-0.5°C or colder after 100 a.Furthermore,the total areal extent of permafrost would decrease from 2.57×105 km2 at present to 1.84×105 km2 after 50 a and to 1.29×105 km2 after 100 a,i.e.,a reduction of 28.4% and 49.8% in the permafrost area,respectively.Also the permafrost would degrade more substantially in the east than in the west.Regional warming and thinning of permafrost would also occur.The area of stable permafrost (mean annual ground temperature,or MAGT≤-1.0°C) would decrease from present 1.07×105 to 8.8×104 km2 after 50 a,and further decrease to 5.6×104 km2 after 100 a.As a result,the unstable permafrost and seasonally frozen ground would expand,and the southern limit of permafrost would shift significantly northwards.The changes in the permafrost environment may adversely affect on ecological environments and engineering infrastructures in cold regions.Avoidance of unnecessary anthropogenic changes in permafrost conditions is a practical approach to protect the permafrost environment.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Program of China on"Formation mechanisms and mitigative measures for thaw settlement of foundation soils of the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline"(Grant No.41171055)the State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soils Engineering Research Projects of China on"Monitoring on thaw settlement of permafrost around the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline"(Grant No.SKLFSE-ZY-11)and"Research on isotope tracing and radar detection of permafrost along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline route"(Grant No.SKLFSE-201302)
文摘On-site monitoring is very important for understanding formation mechanisms of frost hazards frequently occurring in pipeline foundation soils and for designing and deploying according mitigative measures in permafrost regions.Significant thaw subsidence of ground surfaces along the ChinaRussia Crude Oil Pipeline(CRCOP) from Mo'he to Daqing,Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China have been observed at some segments underlain by ice-rich warm(>1.0°C) permafrost since the official operation in January 2011.Recent monitoring results of the thermal states of foundation soils at the kilometer post(KP) 304 site along the CRCOP are presented in this paper.The results indicate that during the period from 2012 to 2014,shallow soils(at the depths from0.8 to 4.0 m from ground surface) has warmed by approximately 1.0°C in the lateral range of 1.2 to 2.1 maway from the pipeline axis,and deeper permafrost(such as at the depth of 15 m,or the depth of zero annual amplitude of ground temperatures) by 0.08°C per year 4 m away from the pipe axis,and 0.07°C per year 5 m away from the pipeline axis.The results indicate an all-season talik has developed around and along the CRCOP.The thaw bulb,with a faster lateral expansion(compared with the vertical growth),enlarges in summer and shrinks in winter.This research will provide important references and bases for evaluating thermal influences of warm pipeline on permafrost and for design,construction,operation and maintenance of pipelines in permafrost regions.
基金funded by the State Key Development Program of Basic Research of China(973 Plan,Grant No.2012CB026101)the National Science and Technology Support Plan(Grant Nos.2014BAG05B01,2014BAG05B05)
文摘Knowledge of the spatial distribution of permafrost and the effects of climate on ground temperature are important for land use and infrastructure development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP). Different permafrost models have been developed to simulate the ground temperature and active layer thickness(ALT). In this study, Temperature at Top of Permafrost(TTOP) model, Kudryavtsev model and modified Stefan solution were evaluated against detailed field measurements at four distinct field sites in the Wudaoliang Basin to better understand the applicability of permafrost models. Field data from 2012 to 2014 showed that there were notable differences in observed ground temperatures and ALTs within and among the sites. The TTOP model is relatively simple, however, when driven by averaged input values, it produced more accurate permafrost surface temperature(Tps) than the Kudryavtsev model. The modified Stefan solution resulted in a satisfactory accuracy of 90%, which was better than the Kudryavtsev model for estimating ALTs. The modified Stefan solution had the potential of being applied to climate-change studies in the future. Furthermore, additional field investigations over longer periods focusing on hydrology, which has significant influence on permafrost thaw, are necessary. These efforts should employ advanced measurement techniques to obtain adequate and extensive local parameters that will help improve model accuracy.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40821001 and 40701013)Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Knowledge Innovative Program (Grant No. KZCX2-YW- 311)CAS ‘One Hundred Talented People’ Program
文摘Northeastern China has the second largest expanse of permafrost in China,primarily known as Xing'an-Baikal permafrost.Located on the southeastern edges of the Eurasian cryolithozone,the permafrost is thermally unstable and ecologically sensitive to external changes.The combined impacts of climatic,environmental,and anthropogenic changes cause 3-dimensional degradation of the permafrost.To predict these changes on the southern limit and ground temperature of permafrost in Northeastern China,an equivalent latitude model (ELM) for the mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGSTs) was proposed,and further improved to take into account of the influences of vegetation and snow-cover based on observational data and using the SHAW model.Using the finite element method and assuming a climate warming rate of 0.048°C a-1,the ELM was combined with the unsteady-state heat conduction model to simulate permafrost temperatures at present,and to predict those after 50 and 100 a.The results indicate that at present,sporadic permafrost occurs in the zones with MAGSTs of 1.5°C or colder,and there would still be a significant presence of permafrost in the zones with the present MAGSTs of 0.5°C or colder after 50 a,and in those of-0.5°C or colder after 100 a.Furthermore,the total areal extent of permafrost would decrease from 2.57×105 km2 at present to 1.84×105 km2 after 50 a and to 1.29×105 km2 after 100 a,i.e.,a reduction of 28.4% and 49.8% in the permafrost area,respectively.Also the permafrost would degrade more substantially in the east than in the west.Regional warming and thinning of permafrost would also occur.The area of stable permafrost (mean annual ground temperature,or MAGT≤-1.0°C) would decrease from present 1.07×105 to 8.8×104 km2 after 50 a,and further decrease to 5.6×104 km2 after 100 a.As a result,the unstable permafrost and seasonally frozen ground would expand,and the southern limit of permafrost would shift significantly northwards.The changes in the permafrost environment may adversely affect on ecological environments and engineering infrastructures in cold regions.Avoidance of unnecessary anthropogenic changes in permafrost conditions is a practical approach to protect the permafrost environment.
