Since climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society, climate change has been a global issue attracting great ...Since climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society, climate change has been a global issue attracting great attentions of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. Existing climate regionalization in China aims to characterize the re gional differences in climate based on years of the mean value of different climate indexes. However, with the accelerating climate change nowadays, existing climate regionalization cannot represent the regional difference of climate change, nor can it reflect the disasters and environmental risks incurred from climate changes. This paper utilizes the tendency value and fluc tuation value of temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2010 to identify the climate change quantitatively, and completes the climate change regionalization in China （1961-2010） with county administrative regionalization as the unit in combination with China＇s terrain feature. Level-I regionalization divides China＇s climate change （1961-2010） into five tendency zones based on the tendency of temperature and precipitation, which are respectively Northeast China-North China warm-dry trend zone, East China-Central China wet-warm trend zone, Southwest China-South China dry-warm trend zone, Southeast Ti- bet-Southwest China wet-warm trend zone, and Northwest China-Qinghai-Tibet Plateau warm-wet trend zone; level-lI region- alization refers to fourteen fluctuation regions based on level-I regionalization according to the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation.展开更多
Historical case studies of climate change impacts and the resulting social responses can provide analogies for better under- standing the impacts of current and future climate changes. Around the turn of the 19th cent...Historical case studies of climate change impacts and the resulting social responses can provide analogies for better under- standing the impacts of current and future climate changes. Around the turn of the 19th century, the climate of the North China Plain experienced a shift from a relatively warm stage in the 18th century to a colder stage in the 19th century, which was characterised by a much colder climate and more frequent and severe floods and droughts. Historical information about refu- gees, social disorder, grain transportation, and disaster relief on the North China Plain in 1780-1819 is collected from the Ver- itable Records of the Qing Dynasty （a collection of official records）. The mechanism of climate change affecting the food se- curity of the society, as indicated by the development of a refugee problem around the turn of the 19th century, is analyzed by examining the social vulnerability. There are four basic findings： （1） In the 40 years from 1780-1819, the society on the North China Plain was unstable and characterised by a significant deterioration of the refugee situation. The number of refugees in- creased markedly, and their behaviour became increasingly violent. In the 1780s, most of the disaster victims chose to stay at their residences waiting for relief. From 1790 to 1800, hundreds of thousands of refugees migrated to northeast China. In the 1810s, the frequency of farmer rebellions increased sharply. （2） The increase in instability corresponded to the climatic cooling over the same time period. The increased instability was a result of the negative impacts of climate change accumulating and transmitting to the social level. （3） For food security, a precondition for the negative impacts of climate change on human soci- ety was the vulnerability of the regional socioeconomic system, which had a high sensitivity and low capacity to respond. This vulnerability could be described by the following three observations： O The regional balance of supply and demand for food was in a critical state, which led to a high sensitivity and dramatic reduction in yield that was caused by climate change; （~ the capacity for disaster relief efforts by the government was too low to meet the needs of crisis management; （~ the capacity for refugees＇ resettlement in eastern Inner Mongolia and northeast China, which both border the North China Plain, was se- verely restricted by climatic conditions or the quarantine policy. （4） It is estimated that climate change caused the social vul- nerability to reach a critical level approximately 20 years earlier on the North China Plain.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2012CB955404,2012CB955402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41321001)
文摘Since climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society, climate change has been a global issue attracting great attentions of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. Existing climate regionalization in China aims to characterize the re gional differences in climate based on years of the mean value of different climate indexes. However, with the accelerating climate change nowadays, existing climate regionalization cannot represent the regional difference of climate change, nor can it reflect the disasters and environmental risks incurred from climate changes. This paper utilizes the tendency value and fluc tuation value of temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2010 to identify the climate change quantitatively, and completes the climate change regionalization in China （1961-2010） with county administrative regionalization as the unit in combination with China＇s terrain feature. Level-I regionalization divides China＇s climate change （1961-2010） into five tendency zones based on the tendency of temperature and precipitation, which are respectively Northeast China-North China warm-dry trend zone, East China-Central China wet-warm trend zone, Southwest China-South China dry-warm trend zone, Southeast Ti- bet-Southwest China wet-warm trend zone, and Northwest China-Qinghai-Tibet Plateau warm-wet trend zone; level-lI region- alization refers to fourteen fluctuation regions based on level-I regionalization according to the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation.
基金supported by National Basic Researh Program of China(Grant No. 2010CB950103)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41071127)
文摘Historical case studies of climate change impacts and the resulting social responses can provide analogies for better under- standing the impacts of current and future climate changes. Around the turn of the 19th century, the climate of the North China Plain experienced a shift from a relatively warm stage in the 18th century to a colder stage in the 19th century, which was characterised by a much colder climate and more frequent and severe floods and droughts. Historical information about refu- gees, social disorder, grain transportation, and disaster relief on the North China Plain in 1780-1819 is collected from the Ver- itable Records of the Qing Dynasty （a collection of official records）. The mechanism of climate change affecting the food se- curity of the society, as indicated by the development of a refugee problem around the turn of the 19th century, is analyzed by examining the social vulnerability. There are four basic findings： （1） In the 40 years from 1780-1819, the society on the North China Plain was unstable and characterised by a significant deterioration of the refugee situation. The number of refugees in- creased markedly, and their behaviour became increasingly violent. In the 1780s, most of the disaster victims chose to stay at their residences waiting for relief. From 1790 to 1800, hundreds of thousands of refugees migrated to northeast China. In the 1810s, the frequency of farmer rebellions increased sharply. （2） The increase in instability corresponded to the climatic cooling over the same time period. The increased instability was a result of the negative impacts of climate change accumulating and transmitting to the social level. （3） For food security, a precondition for the negative impacts of climate change on human soci- ety was the vulnerability of the regional socioeconomic system, which had a high sensitivity and low capacity to respond. This vulnerability could be described by the following three observations： O The regional balance of supply and demand for food was in a critical state, which led to a high sensitivity and dramatic reduction in yield that was caused by climate change; （~ the capacity for disaster relief efforts by the government was too low to meet the needs of crisis management; （~ the capacity for refugees＇ resettlement in eastern Inner Mongolia and northeast China, which both border the North China Plain, was se- verely restricted by climatic conditions or the quarantine policy. （4） It is estimated that climate change caused the social vul- nerability to reach a critical level approximately 20 years earlier on the North China Plain.
