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中国原油进口对国际油价波动的影响及其战略转型研究 被引量:2
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作者 蒋瑛 罗明志 《四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第6期133-140,共8页
随着中国原油净进口的快速增加,中国因素可能对国际油价产生影响。交易者异质性预期是国际油价的决定因素,中国原油进口会影响基本面分析者的预期形成进而影响油价波动。以2005年8月至2011年11月的时间序列数据,通过构建VAR模型得以证实... 随着中国原油净进口的快速增加,中国因素可能对国际油价产生影响。交易者异质性预期是国际油价的决定因素,中国原油进口会影响基本面分析者的预期形成进而影响油价波动。以2005年8月至2011年11月的时间序列数据,通过构建VAR模型得以证实,中国原油净进口是国际原油价格的Granger原因。从长期看,中国原油净进口对国际油价的冲击和影响力度不仅显著而且在逐渐加强。今后需要对石油外向型战略进行重新认识,未来中国的石油战略需要向能源替代战略转型、向参与国际原油期货市场转型。 展开更多
关键词 国际油价 中国原油进口 VAR模型 战略转型
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中国自非洲原油进口贸易发展的状况、问题与政策建议
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作者 郑国富 《对外经贸实务》 北大核心 2020年第1期48-51,共4页
随着中国经济持续高涨,原油进口增势日趋强劲,中非积极推进原油领域产业合作,成效显著,惠及双方。2001-2018年,中国自非洲原油进口总量持续攀升,但占比逐年下滑;来源集中,结构不尽合理;层次偏低,下游产业拓展有限;不稳定因素错综复杂,... 随着中国经济持续高涨,原油进口增势日趋强劲,中非积极推进原油领域产业合作,成效显著,惠及双方。2001-2018年,中国自非洲原油进口总量持续攀升,但占比逐年下滑;来源集中,结构不尽合理;层次偏低,下游产业拓展有限;不稳定因素错综复杂,外部竞争博弈激烈;距离相隔遥远,沿途风险显著。新时期,中非在"一带一路"倡议下,秉持共商、共建、共享原则,深化国际产能合作,增进互利共赢,构筑更紧密的"中非命运共同体"。 展开更多
关键词 中国原油进口 非洲 国际产能合作 一带一路 中非命运共同体
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瓜达尔港通航后的中国进口原油海运路径选择研究 被引量:2
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作者 王爽 吕靖 李晶 《中国软科学》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2018年第5期15-24,共10页
为探究瓜达尔港对中国进口原油海上运输的影响,本文基于连通可靠性和运输成本,建立了瓜达尔港通航后的中国进口原油海运路径选择的不确定双目标规划模型。研究表明运输成本和连通可靠性的不同权衡会带来不同的路径选择,瓜达尔港的运营... 为探究瓜达尔港对中国进口原油海上运输的影响,本文基于连通可靠性和运输成本,建立了瓜达尔港通航后的中国进口原油海运路径选择的不确定双目标规划模型。研究表明运输成本和连通可靠性的不同权衡会带来不同的路径选择,瓜达尔港的运营风险和接卸能力也会影响路径选择,进而提出了提升瓜达尔港在原油运输中作用的措施建议。 展开更多
关键词 瓜达尔港 中国进口原油 连通可靠性 不确定理论 海运路径选择
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新的国际形势对油轮运输业的影响
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作者 倪艺丹 《中国水运》 2019年第7期24-25,共2页
国际原油运输市场在2018年四季度走出周期底部,从供需基本面来看,市场正开启一个新的上行周期。然而新的国际形势不断变化,由此催生的影响原油消费、贸易乃至流向的因素层出不穷。大国关系、国际争端、贸易摩擦升级均会较大程度影响世... 国际原油运输市场在2018年四季度走出周期底部,从供需基本面来看,市场正开启一个新的上行周期。然而新的国际形势不断变化,由此催生的影响原油消费、贸易乃至流向的因素层出不穷。大国关系、国际争端、贸易摩擦升级均会较大程度影响世界经济发展。运输需求端:委内瑞拉政治经济局势导致的原油出口减少,或将催生出委内瑞拉至远东的长运距航线;美国对伊朗重启制裁将迫使伊朗国家石油公司运力退出市场、利好供给端,同时如果伊朗原油出口的缺口由中东其它国家给予补充,运输需求端将没有变化,如果部分缺口由美国、西非等国家,将催生长距离航线,利好需求端;随着美国原油管道以及VLCC码头的建设,限制美国原油出口的因素渐渐消除,未来原油出口的增量主要由美国来贡献;中国经济的稳步增长以及新一轮的大炼化产能的扩张将是拉动未来原油需求的主要引擎。 展开更多
关键词 国际贸易摩擦 委内瑞拉政治经济困境 伊朗制裁 美国原油出口 中国原油进口
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China Crude Oil Imports and Oil Market-oriented Reform 被引量:1
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作者 Wang Zhen Zhang An Liu Mingming 《China Oil & Gas》 CAS 2016年第2期9-15,共7页
Crude oil imports in China are mainly carried out by state-owned entities with non state-owned entities as compliment. Crude imported by 5 state-owned entities accounts for 90% of the total imports, while non state-ow... Crude oil imports in China are mainly carried out by state-owned entities with non state-owned entities as compliment. Crude imported by 5 state-owned entities accounts for 90% of the total imports, while non state-owned entities are about given more freedom in using and importing crude. In 2015 only, there were 13 compauies graftted rcritlt access to imported crude oil and 6welv qualiied to import rights. Currently, there are 29 non-state-owned companies engaging in crude import business. China oil market is .faced with severe challenges. Ttre growth rate of oil demand declined, and dependence upon imported oil increased and reached as high as 61.26% in 2015. Refined oil demand growth also slowed down, and oil refining overcapacity got prominent and completion wouht become fiercer" in future. Overcapacity was about 140 million toils per year in 2015. Consumption ratio of diesel to gasoline went on declining, and ttre task of product structure adjustment was heavy. China oil market is undergoing great transformation, and institutional mechanism zoill go ahead, on the basis of centering on orderly release of limitations on crude oil and refined oil import and export, orderly release of competitive business arrd government pricing of oil/gas downstream links, vigorous resolving of overcapacity, strengthening low-carbon development, and laying a solid foundation.for guarantee. 展开更多
关键词 Crude oil import Oil market Reform and detelopment Orderly release Capacity resolving
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Analysis of China's Oil Imports and Exports Situation
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作者 Tian Chunrong 《China Oil & Gas》 CAS 2018年第3期17-24,27,共9页
China's oil import dependence had risen to 72% in 2017, while its net imports of various oil products, including crude oil, refined oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and other products, had climbed to 418.8 millio... China's oil import dependence had risen to 72% in 2017, while its net imports of various oil products, including crude oil, refined oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and other products, had climbed to 418.8 million tons, an increase by10.7% over 2016. China's crude oil import reached 420 million tons, surpassed the United States for the first time, and China had become the biggest crude oil importing country in the world. Net export of the rejqned oil, mainly the diesel, continued to increase to 22.7 million tons, as driven by the oversupply situation of the domestic market. Last year, China's LPG import was 18.45 million tons, but its growth was diminishing. Oil price would continue to rise in 2018, while the domestic demand of refined oil would be maintained at a lower rate of growth. However, driving by new refining capacities to be brought online, it is estimated that the crude oil import would still be increased remarkably. LPG import would reach a new high due to the growth potential and strong demand for feedstocks in the petrochemical product market. 展开更多
关键词 Crude oil Refined oil Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) IMPORT EXPORT
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Analysis on Policies of Oil and Gas in China
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作者 Jiang He Chen Jianrong 《China Oil & Gas》 CAS 2018年第3期5-12,共8页
The Government has actively introduced oil and gas policies to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the industry it, 2017. The purposes of such policies are: to accelerate the reform of mineral resource... The Government has actively introduced oil and gas policies to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the industry it, 2017. The purposes of such policies are: to accelerate the reform of mineral resource royalties and advance the competitive transfer of mining rights; to promote the reform of the natural gas price, introduce cost supervision on long-distance natural gas pipeline enterprises in the area of gas pipeline transportation, and strengthen the regulation qf the distribution price; to liberalize the import qf crude oil in an orderly manner, increase the allowable volume of non-state trading crude oil imports, strengthen the supervision and periodically pause the approval of the right to use imported crude oil; and to enhance environmental protection. 展开更多
关键词 ROYALTY REFORM PRICE Crude oil import Environmental protection tax
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信息与资料
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《海运情报》 2002年第3期36-41,共6页
关键词 国际经济贸易 航运要闻 集装箱运输 港口动态 船舶市场 中国原油进口 中国海运公司 长荣集团 冷藏货联营 集装箱港
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石油的未来在哪里 被引量:1
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作者 陇达 《中国石油企业》 2020年第6期107-107,共1页
10年前,长期旅居德国的美国著名经济学家、地缘政治学家威廉·恩道尔曾写过一本名叫《石油大棋局—下一个目标中国》的预测类畅销书,如今回头再读这本故事性颇强的书,其当年的预测大部已成现实。据今年1月中国石油经济技术研究院发... 10年前,长期旅居德国的美国著名经济学家、地缘政治学家威廉·恩道尔曾写过一本名叫《石油大棋局—下一个目标中国》的预测类畅销书,如今回头再读这本故事性颇强的书,其当年的预测大部已成现实。据今年1月中国石油经济技术研究院发布的《2019年国内外油气行业发展报告》显示,2019年,中国原油净进口量首次突破5亿吨大关。 展开更多
关键词 行业发展报告 地缘政治学 大棋局 中国原油进口 畅销书 预测类 故事性 石油
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