慢病监测数据高级统计分析技术培训班开班

6月16~20日,中国疾控中心在浙江宁波举办了慢病监测数据高级统计分析技术培训班,旨在解决慢性病防控相关专业技术人员监测数据分析和利用中的难题,提高慢病监测数据分析与利用能力,更好地为制定慢性病防控策略和措施及评估效果服务。来自全国各省、市、自治区及新疆建设兵团疾病预防控制中心的慢病监测业务骨干参加了培训。培训中。

SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASE CONTROL IN CHINA(1949—1994)

This paper surnmarizes the historical experiences in venereal disease control in China during the 1950s.Venereal diseases had been all but eliminated in the whole country till 1964. However, along with the implementation of open-door policy and economic reform in the 1980s, the social environment was changed to a great extent in this country. Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) were reintreduced in the Chinese mainland and new foci of infection established themselves in some cities. During the recent 8 years the national STD case-reporting and sentinel surveillance systems have been set up. The results of surveillance show that the annual incidence of STD has been on the increase. The existing factors associated with the increasing incidence of STD mainly are ; population movement , increasing affiuence in a part of population,the availability of multiple sexual partners (including the prostitution)and asymptomatic STD increased.Finally, the strategies for STD control are discussed in detail.

Comparison of RFFIT Tests with Different Standard Sera and Testing Procedures

The World Health Organization （WHO） standard assay for determining antibody level is the rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test （RFFIT） and is used to determine the degree of immunity after vaccination against rabies. To compare the difference in RFFIT results between the laboratories of The National Institute of Infectious Disease in Japan （NIID） and the Chinese Centre for Disease Control （CCDC） as well the influence of the choice of standard serum （STD） for the detection, the two laboratories detection methods were simultaneously manipulated by RFFIT. The reference serums used in NIID and the WHO standard serum used in CCDC were compared in the same RFFIT detection to determine the titer of four sera samples C1, Sl, S2 and S4 in parallel, and the titers of the detected sera samples were calculated using the standard formula for neutralizing antibody titer. No significant difference was found in RFFIT methods from the two laboratories and the RFFIT testing procedures of the two laboratories have good consistency. However, different titers were obtained with the tentative internal standard serum （TI-STD） produced by adjusting to 2.0 IU of WHO standard serum in NIID and the WHO STD. The titer determined with the TI-STD was higher than that determined with WHO STD, This difference appears to be significant and requires further investigation

Time Series Models for Short Term Prediction of the Incidence of Japanese Encephalitis in Xianyang City, P R China

Objective To construct a model of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average （SARIMA） for forecasting the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis （JE） in Xianyang, Shaanxi, China, and provide valuable reference information for JE control and prevention. Methods Theoretically epidemiologic study was employed in the research process. Monthly incidence data on JE for the period from Jan 2005 to Sep 2014 were obtained from a passive surveillance system at the Center for Diseases Prevention and Control in Xianyang, Shaanxi province. An optimal SARIMA model was developed for JE incidence from 2005 to 2013 with the Box and Jenkins approach. This SARIMA model could predict JE incidence for the year 2014 and 2015. Results SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 was considered to be the best model with the lowest Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, Mean Absolute Error values, the highest R2, and a lower Mean Absolute Percent Error. SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 was stationary and accurate for predicting JE incidence in Xianyang. The predicted incidence, around 0.3/100 000 from June to August in 2014 with low errors, was higher compared with the actual incidence. Therefore, SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 appeared to be reliable and accurate and could be applied to incidence prediction. Conclusions The proposed prediction model could provide clues to early identification of the JE incidence that is increased abnormally （≥0.4/100 000）. According to the predicted results in 2014, the JE incidence in Xianyang will decline slightly and reach its peak from June to August.The authors wish to thank the staff from the CDCs from 13 counties of Xianyang, Shaanxi province, China, for their contribution to Japanese encephalitis cases reporting.

The Analysis on social determinants of health of the floating population

Health literacy refers to the individual obtaining and understanding and dealing with the basic health information and/or services and the ability of use the information and services to make good health decisions.At present, research works related to health literacy in our country are in the initial stage, the information of floating population health literacy is blank, the Chinese Health Education Center （formerly the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Center Health Education） Ministry of Social welfare studies undertaken special ＂Chinese public health Literacy survey and evaluation System ＂to develop a suitable evaluation index system of health literacy of the public, used for evaluation of our country＇ s public health literacy level. October to December 2007, the Chinese health education center of this set of evaluation index in Jinan Shandong province examines the health literacy status of floating population, analysis the influence factors of health literacy of the floating population, for the national macroeconomic regulation and control of the floating population, the rational allocation of health resources, determine priority health work, and provide evidence for health related policies and regulations of the floating population.

Influence of Trap Construction on Mosquito Capture

During 2009 and 2010, 23 night-time mosquito captures were made at Kanci obora in south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic. It was used in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention （CDCP） miniature light traps with CO2 （dry ice） and baited lard-can traps in which sentinel animals were replaced with a container filled with CO2 （dry ice）. In the observed period, a total of 31,882 female mosquitoes were captured by CDC miniature light traps with CO2. Lard-can traps baited with CO2 captured 995 females under the same conditions, which is just 3.12% of the quantity from the CDC traps. At the same time, there were significant differences in the proportional captures of various species. Compared to CDC miniature light traps, baited lard-can traps much more often captured Aedes cinereus （16.58% of total versus 1.93% in CDC traps）, Culex modestus （15.48% versus 4.62%）, and Ae. rossicus （6.13% versus 2.67%）. On the other hand, capture of female Ae. vexans was proportionally much lower （15.38% versus 36.41%）. Capture of Cx. pipiens was more or less the same 14.77% （miniature light traps） and 15.76% （baited lard-can traps）. The occurrence of the calamity species Ae. sticticus was proportionally very high in both trap types （30.05% in lard-can traps baited with CO2, 33.58% in CDC miniature light traps）. The findings prove that a trap＇s design itself significantly affects not only the overall capture of mosquitoes but also the proportional representation of individual species.

A systematic survey on the diagnosis strategy and patient management of type 1 diabetes by Chinese physicians

The qualification of physicians is a key factor in controlling type 1 diabetes(T1 D) since they provide crucial information to their patients about self-management. To investigate whether Chinese physicians' medical strategies influence the control of T1 D in their patients, we designed a questionnaire to survey Chinese physicians, which covered their diagnosis and patient-management strategies for T1 D. A total of 442 completed questionnaires were received from 35 public hospitals in 12 cities. The results showed Chinese physicians mainly diagnosed T1 D based on the clinical features and islet dysfunction. One-third of physicians in this study still prescribed non-basal-bolus insulin regimens to their T1 D patients. More than 80% of the doctors prescribed alpha-glucosidase inhibitors as adjunctive therapy, in addition to insulin therapy. Moreover, most of the physicians in China did not pay attention to identify coexistent autoimmune diseases. T1 D patients in China were not armed with self-management knowledge and skills, which should be provided by their doctors. One of the circumstances leading to insufficient disease control in Chinese T1 D patients is the ineffective therapeutic strategy prescribed by their physicians. We need to promote knowledge of efficient strategies among physicians in China to achieve better disease control in Chinese T1 D patients in the future.

Surgical treatment of hepato-pancreato-biliary disease in China:the Tongji experience

Hepato-pancreato-biliary(HPB) tumors are common in China. However, these tumors are often diagnosed at intermediate/advanced stages because of the lack of a systemic surveillance program in China. This situation creates many technical challenges for surgeons and increases the incidence of postoperative complications. Therefore, Dr. Xiao-Ping Chen has made many important technical improvements, such as Chen's hepatic portal occlusion method, the anterior approach for liver resection of large HCC tumors, the modified technique of Belghiti's liver-hanging maneuver, inserting biliary-enteric anastomosis technique, and invaginated pancreaticojujunostomy with transpancreatic U-sutures. These techniques are simple, practical, and easy to learn. Owing to these advantages, complicated surgical procedures can be simplified, and the curative effects are greatly improved. These improved techniques have been widely applied in China and will benefit many additional patients. In this review, we introduce our experience of surgically treating intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC), hilar cholangiocarcinoma(HC), and pancreatic carcinoma, mainly focusing on technical innovations established by Dr. Chen in HPB surgery.

BED-CEIA估计HIV-1新近感染率的有效性及其影响因素的评价

在艾滋病流行病学研究中,衡量艾滋病流行趋势最常用的指标是HIV累积感染率和新近感染率.与累积感染率相比,新近感染率对艾滋病流行趋势预测、干预效果评价以及防制策略的制定等能提供更直接的信息.在获取新近感染率的方法中,除了经典的流行病学队列随访方法,目前普遍使用的血清学方法之一是IgG捕获BED酶联免疫法（BED-CEIA）.2001年,美国疾病预防控制中心（CDC）艾滋病免疫和诊断室评估了16种基于不同抗体和原理的HIV-1新近感染检测方法,发现新近感染者与既往感染者相比,各种抗体滴度均较低;其中gp41抗体滴度在新近感染者和既往感染者中的差别最大,两者的滴度区间几乎没有重叠,新近感染者的gp41抗体亲和力低于既往感染者,从而认为gp41抗体能够区分新近感染者和既往感染者,并且酶联免疫实验操作相对简单、效果也较理想,因此该室着手开发基于gp41抗体的HIV-1新近感染检测的酶联免疫方法[1].