“中国碗要装中国粮”可行性与实践路径研究

构建系统动力学模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,动态测度了“中国碗要装中国粮”的可行性。研究结果表明:未来我国口粮数量总体安全,粮食结构性供给风险较大,饲料粮短缺较为严重;我国水产品、蛋类和奶类等间接用粮消费潜力较大,猪肉供需关系紧张,国产植物油供能不足;我国居民的脂肪摄入量严重超标,仍需大量进口。据此,应严格守好耕地保护红线,提高耕地质量;充分发挥政策引导作用,调动农民种粮的积极性;推动农业科技进步,提升粮食稳产保供能力;改善我国居民膳食结构,改进牲畜饲料配比,以降低过旺的饲料粮和植物油需求。

基于新媒体视角下的多元宣传媒体体系构建—以湖南省《中国粮·湖南饭》宣传片为例

随着第一个百年目标的成功达成,我国社会主义伟大事业的建设迈向了新的历史时期。新时期带来新机遇,新发展带来新挑战,在网络信息技术不断发展的背景下,我国宣传工作面临着严峻的风险挑战。新媒体是指利用数字技术,通过计算机网络、无线通信网、卫星等渠道,以及电脑、手机、数字电视机等终端,向用户提供信息和服务的传播形态。在新媒体视角下,如何基于新媒体构建多元宣传媒体体系,是新时期推动媒体转型的关键,也是新时期加强宣传工作的重中之重。本文以《中国粮·湖南饭》宣传片为例,探究新时期宣传工作中新媒体的重要性,并总结《中国粮·湖南饭》对构建多元宣传媒体体系的实践经验,基于新媒体视角提出多元宣传媒体体系构建策略,从而不断推动媒体融合发展,为构建融为一体、合而为一的新媒体传播格局提供一定的借鉴和参考作用。

农业专题片《中国粮的奇迹》叙事特色探析

《中国粮的奇迹》是近年来中国农业专题片的高峰之作。该片在内容上立足于农业治理和乡村振兴的伟大实践,在叙事上突破传统电视专题片以议论为主的窠臼,采用直击问题与中国方案的全知叙事视角、设计点与逻辑面的叙事结构、年轻态的叙事风格,极富思想引导力和情感感染力,为新中国成立七十年来中国粮食生产所走过的光辉历程和新时代中国粮食生产的崭新面貌做了一次生动而深刻的影像传播,也为中国农业专题片创作提供了创新性借鉴。

主旋律专题片如何做到立得住、传得开——以《中国粮的奇迹》为例

为使主旋律专题片吸引更广大的受众,做到“既有意思又有意义”,《中国粮的奇迹》通过紧扣时代脉搏,注重社会主流现实和主流价值传播;尝试告别空洞说教的话语方式,实现“政论情怀,故事表达”;充分调动历史素材等多种元素丰富表达;探索媒体融合环境下立体化的传播方式等手法,拉近了严肃主题与观众之间的距离,使节目脉络齐整又血肉丰满、不失分量。

福建省农田建设几点思考与建议

党中央、国务院高度重视农田建设,不断强化政策支持,加大财政投入,持续改善农业生产条件,确保“中国人的饭碗牢牢端在自己手里,中国人的饭碗主要装中国粮”。福建省各地各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署,不断加大建设投入,持续推进高标准农田建设,通过实施新增千亿斤粮食工程、农业综合开发、农田整治、农田水利建设等项目渠道合力推进农田基础设施建设,有力支撑了粮食和重要农产品生产能力的提升。本文通过总结分析福建省农田建设工作取得明显成效的同时,指出当前农田建设主要问题和不足,提出了一些意见建议供参考借鉴。

Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China

Based on the data from the Cost-benefit Data of Farm Produce and the China Agricultural Yearbook, this paper aims to examine the spatial and temporal change characteristics of total grain production and its affecting factors. The results show that： 1） During 1980 to 2007, total grain production increased from 3.20 ~ 108 t to 5.02 x 108 t in China, with annual increasing rate of 1.68%. From the regional disparities, most of the regions present increasing trend of total grain production except for several regions with higher level of economic development; 2） Grain sown area decreased from 1.17 × 108 ha in 1980 to 1.06 x 108 ha in 2007, which has negative effect on total grain production; 3） The increase of grain yield per unit area caused by land use intensity changes contributed to the increase of total grain yield greatly. However, as the land use intensity showed that farmers pay more attention to labor-saving input but not yield-increasing input, the less enthusiasm of farmers in grain production may become an important constraint on fu- ture grain production increase in China; 4） Based on the results, this paper proposed different land management poli- cies in different regions, for example, the government should protect cultivated land, promote large scale production. As to the less developed regions, the government should pay more attention to agricultural subsidies to promote farm- ers＇ enthusiasm in grain production.

The Grain-population Relationship and the Effect of Main Food Producing Areas in China

With the increase of global population,grain-population relationship has attracted great attention worldwide.In China,grain-population relationship has become an increasingly important economic concern.Of central importance to the food security debate in China is the geography of grain supply and demand.This paper uses a grain demand and supply index (DSR) to analyze the spatial-temporal relationship between population and grain in China from 1949 to 2007 at national and provincial scales.The results are examined in three periods.(1) From 1949 to 2007,with the increase of grain production,the relationship between population and grain of China improved considerably.(2) Over the past 35 years (1970-2005),on the whole the grain producing areas have had grain surplus and contributed to the nation by providing grain,but the ability to provide sufficient grain is not stable.(3) Over the past 15 years (1990-2005),decreases in planting area brought pressure on national grain food security.The paper concludes that the key to providing more food for the main food producing provinces is increasing yield on the basis of steady plant area.

Variation Character of Grain Yield per Unit Area in Main Grain-producing Area of Northeast China

Based on the surveys and the statistic data during 1980-2003, the variation character of grain yield per unit area in Northeast China and its main factors have been discussed by the methods of statistics and grey correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) the grain yield per unit area has been taking on an increasing trend in the recent 20 years. It increased from 2519.80kg/ha in 1980 to 4216.11kg/ha in 2003, with an increasing rate of 67.32%; 2) the variation of grain yield per unit area is considerably prominent and its range is also very great, with the maximal increase rate of 42.59% and maximal decrease rate of 21.13%, respectively, which are far above the whole Chinese average level; 3) the variation of main crops' yield per unit area is remarkable, which takes on the character that the yield of corn is much higher than that of soybean and rice; and 4) the grey correlation analysis shows that the most important factors impacting the variation of grain yield per unit area are the total power of agricultural machinery, the consumption of chemical fertilizer and effective irrigated area. However, the influence of natural disaster and income level should not be ignored. Effective ways to improve grain yield per unit area are to construct farmland improvement groundwork, reclaim the middle- and low-yield farmland, etc.

Rice DENSE AND ERECT PANICLE 2 is essential for determining panicle outgrowth and elongation

The architecture of the panicle, including grain size and panicle morphology, directly determines grain yield. Panicle erectness, which is selected for achieving ideal plant arehitecture in the northern part of China, has drawn increasing attention of rice breeders. Here, dense and erect panicle 2 （dep2） mutant, which shows a dense and erect panicle phenotype, was identified. DEP2 encodes a plant-specific protein without any known functional domain. Expression profiling of DEP2 revealed that it is highly expressed in young tissues, with most abundance in young panicles. Morphological and expression analysis indicated that mutation in DEP2 mainly affects the rapid elongation of rachis and primary and secondary branches, but does not impair the initiation or formation of panicle primordia. Further analysis suggests that decrease of panicle length in dep2 is caused by a defect in cell proliferation during the exponential elongation of panicle. Despite a more compact plant type in the dep2 mutant, no significant alteration in grain production was found between wild type and dep2 mutant. Therefore, the study of DEP2 not only strengthens our understanding of the molecular genetic basis of panicle architecture but also has important implications for rice breeding.

The Impact of Climate Change on China＇s Grain Market and Food Security-- A CGE Model Approach

This paper examines the impact of climate change on China＇s grain production and food security. The research is one of the four studies on future conditions of China＇s food production system under the influence of climate change using numerical simulation methods, carried out under a national 973 project entitled ＂impacts of climate change on food systems in China and its adaptation＂. The other three studies focus on changes in cultivated land area and food production, while this study incorporates their grain yield results into a general equilibrium model to simulate future conditions of the grain market. Our simulation analysis arrives at the impact of climate change by comparing such economic variables as grain production, consumption, and GDP growth rate between a baseline scenario and two climate change scenarios. Our results are summarized as follows： （1） In 2050, the total grain production will reach 689.683 million tons--584.264 million tons of total grain consumption and 42.808 million tons of exports. Without considering losses and inventory demand, in 2050 China＇s grain supply and demand will remain well balanced, with a slight surplus expected. （2） Climate change is expected to benefit China＇s macro economy and individual sectors. In comparison with the baseline scenario of no climate change, real wage, real GDP, investment, household consumption, exports, and other macroeconomic indicators will rise under the climate change scenarios. As far as the agricultural, manufacturing, and service sectors are concerned, production, consumption, imports, and exports will each be favorably affected by climate change. （3） The favorable impact of climate change on China＇s macroeconomy and individual sectors under the high emissions scenario （A2） is stronger than that under the low emissions scenario （B2）. （4） In the grain market, climate change is expected to increase supply, reduce imports, increase supply, and demand; and supply will increase more than demand does. All in all, if taking into the fertilization effect of CO2 account, climate change is expected to strengthen China＇s grain supply and safeguard food security.

Conversion Margins for the Major Uses of Agricultural Land and Their Variations in Shandong Province, China

It is of practical significance for the decision-making on country food security and farmland protection to analyze the conversion margins for the major uses of agricultural land and their variations. Based on the panel data of wheat, corn, vegetable, fruit, and forests productions from 520 investigated farmer households of 13 investigated villages in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2009, and using Cobb-Douglas production function, the revenue conversion margins can be obtained separately, between different grain-crops （wheat, corn） and different non-grain crops （vegetable, fruit, forests）, and the conversion relationship between growing grain（ wheat, corn） and going out for non-farm work. The results show that from 2003 to 2009, growing wheat and corn are more economically and reasonably for farmers, compared with growing vegetable, but growing wheat and corn are becoming less economically and less reasonably day by day, compared with planting forests. Moreover, the conversion margin between wheat and fruit shows obvious scissors difference. Just from 2007, farm- ers＇ growing fruit became economically and reasonably, but until 2009, compared with going out to work after abandoning farm- land, growing wheat had no economic rationality. From 2003 to 2009, farmers＇ growing corn is more profitable than growing fruit and going out for non-farm work after abandoning farmland. The subsidies for wheat and corn have increased farmers＇ comparative income from food production remarkably, but the subsidies cannot change the general tendency that farmers transform food （wheat, corn） production into non-food （especially forests） production. The revenue difference between growing wheat, corn and vegetable and growing fruit and forests is being pulled ceaselessly bigger, and the tendency that farmers transform wheat, corn and vegetable growing lands into fruit and forests growing lands has become increasingly apparent.

The impacts of biofuels on food security and supply in China

Biofuels are the current promising alternative to fossil fuels. However, the fluctuating food prices caused by oil price led to critics to biofuels. The paper surveyed biofuels production and grain production and consumption demand, and come to the conclusion that there was a little impact of corn ethanol on international food price, and there was no impact on China’s food prices. China has launched non-food biofuels development strategy to use marginal lands for growing hard crops, such as sweet sorghum, tuber crops, and switchgrass etc. to produce biofuels without any impact on food security in the future.

Challenges or Opportunities?——Developments of China's Grain Industry since WTO Entry

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy,while grain is the cornet stone of that foundation.It is also essential for subsistence and development of the mankind. In recent years,especially since its entry into the WTO, China has been undergoing a period of twists and turns in the development of its grain production and trade which used to be sound and stable.

Present Situation and Strategies for State Foodstuff Security

The system of State Foodstuff Security is a comprehensively systematical framework, which needs concerted support and energetic cooperation from all walks of lives. This paper analyzes the strategies for State Foodstuff Security： integrating new biological techniques with traditional methods, full utilization of soil with its protection, policies leading with market regulation, steady high yield with promoting additional value through further processing, general foodstuff production with substitute food seeking, domestic self-supply with international trade complementarities as well as short-term exploiting with long-term development on the basis of the increase of general foodstuff production capability.

How Far Is China’s Grain Subsidies Level from the Ceiling of Amber Box Support?-Evaluation Based on WTO Rules

Using the aggregate measurement of support （AMS） approach of the World Trade Organization （WTO）, this study estimates China＇s product-specific and non-product- specific amber box support levels between 2008 and 2013. The result indicates that China＇s product-specific amber box support level has significantly increased but not yet exceeded the tolerable ceiling of de minimis and remains consistent with WTO rules on agricultural domestic support,＂ that there is still policy room for product-specific amber box support but the ceiling of de minimis has already imposed substantial constraint on China＇s grain price support policies; and that despite rapid increases in non-product-specific amber box support levels, future policy space remains significant. The result also suggests that China should make appropriate adjustments to product-specific amber box support policies in accordance with WTO rules on agricultural domestic support and make proper use of non- product-specific amber box support policies.

Assessment of natural resources and the policy of subsidies in grain production

Based on the analysis on the status quo of natural resources input in Brain production and on the policy of Brain subsidies, this paper puts forward a new idea - establishing grain subsidies through assessing the value of the natural resources in Brain production. The assessment of the natural resources in Brain production provides rationale and reference standard for the policy of Brain subsidies, which will promote the sustainable use of natural resources accordingly. This paper concludes： （1） it is necessary for the grain subsidies to assess the full value of natural resources, including economic value, ecological value and social value： （2） the government should give farmers direct subsidies or environment subsidies according to the economic and ecological value of natural resources in grain production, （3） the social value of natural resources can be realized by establishing the country social security system, taking the social value as the criterion for the payment for part of farmers＇ insurance.

China’s Food Security Status:Assessment and Strategic Reflections

Based on an internationally recognized concept of food security, this paper has created a system of eight indicators to analyze China＇s food security. For the proper control and analysis of this study, the authors of this paper have chosen these indicators： supply, distribution, consumption, utilization efficiency, food security results, stability, sustainability and controllability. Results indicate that China＇s food security is currently at a high level and has been increasing in recent years. China＇s food security has multiple advantages with various indicators that include a self-sufficiency ratio, per capita calorie intake and protein supply that are above world average levels, even exceeding the average level of some developed countries. Major challenges facing China＇s food security include an unreasonable nutrition structure and poor environmental sustainability. In order to increase China＇s food security level, efforts must be made to adjust output structure, adopt an environmentally friendly pattern of production, attach importance to demand management, reduce unreasonable consumption and loss and moderately lower China＇s food reserve ratio.

Investment Requirements in Extension to Achieve Zero Hunger and Adapt to Climate Change

The study reflects on previous World Bank and FAO reports that made the general recommendation to set both research and extension investment targets in developing countries at 1% of agricultural gross domestic product （AgGDP）. In order to define proxies for country-specific extension investment targets, authors developed an extension investment model （EIM） based on socio-economic macro-indicators （poverty, undernourishment, access to information and population density） and a method to define estimates for cost increases related to climate change. These parameters helped estimating the demand for agricultural extension and investments required for it. Results showed that about half of the 94 developing and emerging countries should spend more than 1% of their respective share of GDP derived from agriculture and about a quarter of the countries, mostly in Africa and South East Asia, need to spend more than 2% of their AgGDP. The paper reveals significant differences in average investment requirements in different regions and shows the additional extension costs related to climate change and other areas that currently lack investment.

Soybean Production & Trade in China——Implicated Impacts of GMO Regulation on Soybean Market

This paper provides an overview of the economic analysis,policy debate,and methodological issues on soybean production, import and export, and impacts of GMO regulation on soybean foreign trade of China. The paper analyzes China’s soybean production capability and discovers that the present yield of China’s soybean plant system cannot satisfy the domestic demand.The paperalso provides the method to solve such matters by using the result of a modified Cobb-Douglas model. In the third section of this paper, the impacts of GMO regulation on soybean trade and marketin China are analyzed.In this section,we provide a methodological issue to analyze the impacts of such regulation on trade.The paper then explains the implicated result induced by such regulations.

China's Land Carrying Capacity Based on Man-grain Relationships

With population growth and increasing pressure on land resources,land carrying capacity(LCC) and food safety have been attracting great attention worldwide.From the point of man-grain relationship and by establishing LCC and land carrying capacity index(LCCI) models,this article firstly analyzes the spatial-temporal dynamics of LCC of China from 1949 to 2005 at county,provincial and national levels.Choosing 2005 as a representative year,this article then evaluates the LCC of 264 pastoral regions(semipastoral regions),663 urban regions and 592 poverty stricken regions of the country.The results show that:(1) from 1949 to 2005,with the increase of grain production,the LCC of China has been improved conspicuously,but due to the rapid population growth,the production can only maintain a low level grain consumption;(2) over the past 25 years(1980-2005),the number of population overloading provinces decreased from 23 to 15 and the mangrain relationship has been improved gradually,but there were more overloading provinces than surplus provinces in China;(3) at county level,there were 1572 overloading counties in 1980 accounting for 68.26% of the total counties of the country and where were 649 million people lived,while in 1990,2000 and 2005,the number of overloading counties were 1066,1133 and 1087 respectively,which shows that the man-grain relationship has been improved obviously during the past 25 years;as for spatial distribution,the surplus counties were mainly concentrated in agriculture developed regions,such as Northeast Plain,North China Plain,middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Plain,and overloading counties were mainly located in regions with poor natural environment and low grain production capacity,such as Northwest China,Tibetan Plateau and Loess Plateau and economically developed urban regions,such as Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai;(4) animal husbandry improved greatly the LCC of pastoral and semi-pastoral regions,while urban regions were overloading for increasing population pressure and more than half of poverty stricken regions were overloading due to critical natural environment and poor economic conditions.