In reference to the method of the Conference Board,the coincident indexes for China are constructed from a sample period between January 1990 and May 2012 and by51 chosen component indicators.The resulting coincident ...In reference to the method of the Conference Board,the coincident indexes for China are constructed from a sample period between January 1990 and May 2012 and by51 chosen component indicators.The resulting coincident indexes have higher correlations with gross domestic product(GDP) growth rates than the China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC) coincident index over the sample period between February2005 and May 2012.The peaks and troughs of the growth rates in several indicators are identified.The total number of peaks and troughs in the resulting coincident index is the same with the CEMAC coincident index.Unfortunately,these troughs don't signify recessions in the Chinese economy because the financial system has not seen a negative growth rate over the specific sample periods.The impacts of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and subprime mortgage crisis on the business cycle could be dated via a smoother index from HP filtering to the coincident index.展开更多
Since the mercantilism era, economists have built up trade theories to explain the rationale and patterns of world trade.In this paper, the explanatory power of the international product life cycle (IPLC) theory for d...Since the mercantilism era, economists have built up trade theories to explain the rationale and patterns of world trade.In this paper, the explanatory power of the international product life cycle (IPLC) theory for describing the trends and patterns of the global textile trade, one of the most geographically dispersed export items in both developed and developing countries/regions, is discussed. Data at SITC two-digit level (SITC 65 ) were collected and time series regressions were performed to analyze the value trends and world shares of textile exports from 1990 to 2000 for selected developed economies. It was found that some developed economies have increased their world shares in textile exports, which indicated that global trade shift in the textile industry may not follow what the IPLC has suggested.展开更多
This paper first summarizes China＇s economic growth rate fluctuations over the past 60 years since 1949 and examines the new developments in China＇s economic structure behind these fluctuations since reform and open...This paper first summarizes China＇s economic growth rate fluctuations over the past 60 years since 1949 and examines the new developments in China＇s economic structure behind these fluctuations since reform and opening-up in the late 1970s.In tackling the global financial crisis,China is embracing a new economic cycle and must draw upon its economic history to prolong the upward momentum in the new cycle.To do so means maintaining an appropriate growth rate in the new cycle.This paper also analyzes the importance urbanization and the housing sector will play in the new cycle and how to address rising housing prices.展开更多
基金the support provided by Ford Foundation,Stanford SCID and National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science(Approval No.12 & ZD038)
文摘In reference to the method of the Conference Board,the coincident indexes for China are constructed from a sample period between January 1990 and May 2012 and by51 chosen component indicators.The resulting coincident indexes have higher correlations with gross domestic product(GDP) growth rates than the China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC) coincident index over the sample period between February2005 and May 2012.The peaks and troughs of the growth rates in several indicators are identified.The total number of peaks and troughs in the resulting coincident index is the same with the CEMAC coincident index.Unfortunately,these troughs don't signify recessions in the Chinese economy because the financial system has not seen a negative growth rate over the specific sample periods.The impacts of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and subprime mortgage crisis on the business cycle could be dated via a smoother index from HP filtering to the coincident index.
文摘Since the mercantilism era, economists have built up trade theories to explain the rationale and patterns of world trade.In this paper, the explanatory power of the international product life cycle (IPLC) theory for describing the trends and patterns of the global textile trade, one of the most geographically dispersed export items in both developed and developing countries/regions, is discussed. Data at SITC two-digit level (SITC 65 ) were collected and time series regressions were performed to analyze the value trends and world shares of textile exports from 1990 to 2000 for selected developed economies. It was found that some developed economies have increased their world shares in textile exports, which indicated that global trade shift in the textile industry may not follow what the IPLC has suggested.
文摘This paper first summarizes China＇s economic growth rate fluctuations over the past 60 years since 1949 and examines the new developments in China＇s economic structure behind these fluctuations since reform and opening-up in the late 1970s.In tackling the global financial crisis,China is embracing a new economic cycle and must draw upon its economic history to prolong the upward momentum in the new cycle.To do so means maintaining an appropriate growth rate in the new cycle.This paper also analyzes the importance urbanization and the housing sector will play in the new cycle and how to address rising housing prices.
