According to New Structural Economics, the ultimate direction of industrial transformation is determined by factor endowment structure and the relative price system of factors. In today＇s China, the predominant facto...According to New Structural Economics, the ultimate direction of industrial transformation is determined by factor endowment structure and the relative price system of factors. In today＇s China, the predominant factor in its labor endowment is shifting from population size to the regional movement of population and population quality, and its land endowment is changing from cheap, massive supply to expensive, limited supply, and the economy has potential of technological catch-up. Because of these three fundamental realities and the special situation that China is vast in territory and has a continuous industrial spectrum, its industrial transformation will be featured with ＂three unique regions within one country＂ and that the eastern region enters a new stage which focuses on the development of services, the six central provinces and the western triangle zone take over industries transferred from the east and the resource-rich western region becomes the ＂home front＂ as a major supplier of resources. However, this ＂three region differentiation＂ will not be automatically developed. Only in a competitive factor market, a flexible financial market and an elastic labor market can the persistent changes in endowment structure drive China＇s industrial structure towards its optimal form. To achieve this, we need to launch a series of necessary structural reforms.展开更多
Combining the development status of information industry in China and based on theoretical discussions on labor demand and supply as well as the comprehensive analysis on endogenous technological progress and exogenou...Combining the development status of information industry in China and based on theoretical discussions on labor demand and supply as well as the comprehensive analysis on endogenous technological progress and exogenous educational quality, this paper concludes that the technological progress of information industry in China is skill- biased, i.e. technological progress of information industry increases the demand for skilled labor while decreases the demand for unskilled labor, and aggravates the wage difference between these two types of labor. Due to the effect of educational quality, the ratio of skilled labor employment to unskilled labor employment will reach a dynamic equilibrium and the wage difference between skilled labor and unskilled labor will not increase continuously. This paper then proves the foregoing conclusion with data of information industry in 26 provinces （autonomous region, municipality）. Focusing on typical skill-intensive information industry, this paper mainly studies the influence of educational quality, which not only complements the theoretical analysis on dual effects of technological progress on employment, but also provides feasible and practical basis to policies promoting the development of technological progress and full employment in China.展开更多
This paper examines the cost of environmental regulation and the environmental total factor productivity （TFP） with directional distance function and the Malmquist-Luenberger （ALL） index respectively, using inputs...This paper examines the cost of environmental regulation and the environmental total factor productivity （TFP） with directional distance function and the Malmquist-Luenberger （ALL） index respectively, using inputs and output data of 36 two-digit industries over the period 1998- 2010. It finds that Chinese industries incur a relatively high environmental regulatory cost and that China has paid a high price fulfilling its promise to emissions mitigation. A comparison between conventional and environmental TFP shows that the two indicators for all industries declined on average, but a hypothesis test reveals insignificant difference between the two. In addition, the rise in environmental TFP is mainly due to technological progress, which is consistent with findings of many researches; analysis demonstrates signs of absolute convergence of environmental TFP.展开更多
This paper examines the differences and similarities of the two global financial crises to find out the fundamental reasons why these two crises have occurred and what we can learn from these two crises. In 2010, we l...This paper examines the differences and similarities of the two global financial crises to find out the fundamental reasons why these two crises have occurred and what we can learn from these two crises. In 2010, we launched a comparative study on the Great Depression of the 1930s and today＇s international financial crisis. This paper is the main summary of the project we have accomplished together. This research draws on the historical event and data to analyze the true reasons behind these two global crises. It concludes that the endogenous conflicts of capitalism, with the inability to self-adjust have caused these crises to take place.展开更多
Many have argued that the international community shouM establish a global emissions trading scheme （ETS） to reduce emissions and streamline efforts to mitigate climate change. This paper argues against establishing...Many have argued that the international community shouM establish a global emissions trading scheme （ETS） to reduce emissions and streamline efforts to mitigate climate change. This paper argues against establishing such global ETS for the following reasons： （1） a global ETS may assist developed countries in cutting emissions abatement cost, but it may also result in deterioration in the welfare of developing countries; （2） each nation participating in providing global public goods shall be dedicated to forming ＂Lindahl equilibrium＂ under the principle of common but differentiated responsibility, rather than the ＂Walrasian equilibrium ＂, which is represented in a global ETS,＂ （3） the establishment of a global ETS has its driving forces as it is seen as a preferred regulatory form for industrial special interest groups in developed economies, since its benefits is biased rather than promoting global economic and environmental efficiency; and （4） the developing countries shouM be more cautious when designing tools of climate policies and need to avoid to be locked in emission trading systems.展开更多
Using a New Economic Geography OVEG） model, this paper investigates the effect of market potential, natural resource endowment and tax burden on the location distribution of industrial enterprises in China. By applyi...Using a New Economic Geography OVEG） model, this paper investigates the effect of market potential, natural resource endowment and tax burden on the location distribution of industrial enterprises in China. By applying data from 2000 to 2010 of 286 Chinese cities, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the location of industrial enterprises of different time periods, regions and ownership systems. The results indicate that greater domestic market potential and international market demand are favorable to fostering or introduction of new enterprises. It also shows that coastal cities with better resource endowment are more attractive to corporate investment, while cities in interior regions have heavy and highly differentiated industrial tax burdens, which is unfavorable to the attraction of enterprises. In comparison, infrastructure and wage of cities have no obvious effect on enterprises＇ location choice. When it comes to enterprises of different ownership, domestic market potential and international market demand all have significant positive effects on the location distribution of foreign-funded enterprises, private enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, while the level of urban industrial tax burden has an opposite effect. We find that the NEG model has a relatively strong explanatory power to the location of industrial enterprises in China.展开更多
China＇s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8% and higher than the rate of last year. I...China＇s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8% and higher than the rate of last year. In the next 5-10 years, the accelerating growth trends seem to reach an end, and China＇s growth tends to step into a new phase characterized by a structural growth deceleration. We predict that the potential growth rate might fall into a range of 7%-8% per year. Moreover, according to the estimates on the non-agricultural employment elasticity and labor force supply, in 2013-2017, a 7% annual growth is sufficient to achieve the full employment of urban and rural people. It implies that instead of the rapid growth rate, China＇s macroeconomic objectives for the next 5-10 years should focus more on the development quality, which refers to the improvement in microeconomic efficiency, increasing competiveness and stimulating technological innovations. Accordingly, the policy concerns should shift from demand-side management to supply-side management.展开更多
文摘According to New Structural Economics, the ultimate direction of industrial transformation is determined by factor endowment structure and the relative price system of factors. In today＇s China, the predominant factor in its labor endowment is shifting from population size to the regional movement of population and population quality, and its land endowment is changing from cheap, massive supply to expensive, limited supply, and the economy has potential of technological catch-up. Because of these three fundamental realities and the special situation that China is vast in territory and has a continuous industrial spectrum, its industrial transformation will be featured with ＂three unique regions within one country＂ and that the eastern region enters a new stage which focuses on the development of services, the six central provinces and the western triangle zone take over industries transferred from the east and the resource-rich western region becomes the ＂home front＂ as a major supplier of resources. However, this ＂three region differentiation＂ will not be automatically developed. Only in a competitive factor market, a flexible financial market and an elastic labor market can the persistent changes in endowment structure drive China＇s industrial structure towards its optimal form. To achieve this, we need to launch a series of necessary structural reforms.
基金This research is funded by the key project of National Social Science Foundation of China ＂Study on Major Issues and Countermeasures of Industrial Organization in China after the International Financial Crisis＂ （Approval No. 12AJY004） Major Research Projects on Humanities and Social Sciences of Shandong University ＂Study on Industrial Concentration, Enterprise Size and International Competitiveness of China＇s Manufacturing Industry against Economic Globalization＂ （Approval No.12RWZD15） Fund Project for Postgraduate＇s Independent Innovation of Shandong University ＂Study on the Impact Mechanism of IT Technical Progress on Employment.＂
文摘Combining the development status of information industry in China and based on theoretical discussions on labor demand and supply as well as the comprehensive analysis on endogenous technological progress and exogenous educational quality, this paper concludes that the technological progress of information industry in China is skill- biased, i.e. technological progress of information industry increases the demand for skilled labor while decreases the demand for unskilled labor, and aggravates the wage difference between these two types of labor. Due to the effect of educational quality, the ratio of skilled labor employment to unskilled labor employment will reach a dynamic equilibrium and the wage difference between skilled labor and unskilled labor will not increase continuously. This paper then proves the foregoing conclusion with data of information industry in 26 provinces （autonomous region, municipality）. Focusing on typical skill-intensive information industry, this paper mainly studies the influence of educational quality, which not only complements the theoretical analysis on dual effects of technological progress on employment, but also provides feasible and practical basis to policies promoting the development of technological progress and full employment in China.
基金This research is funded by Natural Science Foundation of China （71171001） the Ministry of Education＇s General Project of Humanitarian and Social Science （Approval No.11YJC630107）.
文摘This paper examines the cost of environmental regulation and the environmental total factor productivity （TFP） with directional distance function and the Malmquist-Luenberger （ALL） index respectively, using inputs and output data of 36 two-digit industries over the period 1998- 2010. It finds that Chinese industries incur a relatively high environmental regulatory cost and that China has paid a high price fulfilling its promise to emissions mitigation. A comparison between conventional and environmental TFP shows that the two indicators for all industries declined on average, but a hypothesis test reveals insignificant difference between the two. In addition, the rise in environmental TFP is mainly due to technological progress, which is consistent with findings of many researches; analysis demonstrates signs of absolute convergence of environmental TFP.
文摘This paper examines the differences and similarities of the two global financial crises to find out the fundamental reasons why these two crises have occurred and what we can learn from these two crises. In 2010, we launched a comparative study on the Great Depression of the 1930s and today＇s international financial crisis. This paper is the main summary of the project we have accomplished together. This research draws on the historical event and data to analyze the true reasons behind these two global crises. It concludes that the endogenous conflicts of capitalism, with the inability to self-adjust have caused these crises to take place.
文摘Many have argued that the international community shouM establish a global emissions trading scheme （ETS） to reduce emissions and streamline efforts to mitigate climate change. This paper argues against establishing such global ETS for the following reasons： （1） a global ETS may assist developed countries in cutting emissions abatement cost, but it may also result in deterioration in the welfare of developing countries; （2） each nation participating in providing global public goods shall be dedicated to forming ＂Lindahl equilibrium＂ under the principle of common but differentiated responsibility, rather than the ＂Walrasian equilibrium ＂, which is represented in a global ETS,＂ （3） the establishment of a global ETS has its driving forces as it is seen as a preferred regulatory form for industrial special interest groups in developed economies, since its benefits is biased rather than promoting global economic and environmental efficiency; and （4） the developing countries shouM be more cautious when designing tools of climate policies and need to avoid to be locked in emission trading systems.
文摘Using a New Economic Geography OVEG） model, this paper investigates the effect of market potential, natural resource endowment and tax burden on the location distribution of industrial enterprises in China. By applying data from 2000 to 2010 of 286 Chinese cities, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the location of industrial enterprises of different time periods, regions and ownership systems. The results indicate that greater domestic market potential and international market demand are favorable to fostering or introduction of new enterprises. It also shows that coastal cities with better resource endowment are more attractive to corporate investment, while cities in interior regions have heavy and highly differentiated industrial tax burdens, which is unfavorable to the attraction of enterprises. In comparison, infrastructure and wage of cities have no obvious effect on enterprises＇ location choice. When it comes to enterprises of different ownership, domestic market potential and international market demand all have significant positive effects on the location distribution of foreign-funded enterprises, private enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, while the level of urban industrial tax burden has an opposite effect. We find that the NEG model has a relatively strong explanatory power to the location of industrial enterprises in China.
文摘China＇s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8% and higher than the rate of last year. In the next 5-10 years, the accelerating growth trends seem to reach an end, and China＇s growth tends to step into a new phase characterized by a structural growth deceleration. We predict that the potential growth rate might fall into a range of 7%-8% per year. Moreover, according to the estimates on the non-agricultural employment elasticity and labor force supply, in 2013-2017, a 7% annual growth is sufficient to achieve the full employment of urban and rural people. It implies that instead of the rapid growth rate, China＇s macroeconomic objectives for the next 5-10 years should focus more on the development quality, which refers to the improvement in microeconomic efficiency, increasing competiveness and stimulating technological innovations. Accordingly, the policy concerns should shift from demand-side management to supply-side management.
