The modern Yellow River delta is formed near the estuary of the Yellow River with the characteristics of short formation time, efficient sedimentation rate and loose structure which make sediments prone to be compacte...The modern Yellow River delta is formed near the estuary of the Yellow River with the characteristics of short formation time, efficient sedimentation rate and loose structure which make sediments prone to be compacted and consolidate under the geostatic stress and overburden stress. It is one of the key areas with land subsidence disasters in China, bringing a series of safety hazards to production and living. Based on the data of massive surface cores and ten drill holes ranging from 12 to 40 m obtained from the northern modern Yellow River subaqueous delta, the inversion method suitable for the calculation of consolidation settlement characteristics of the modern Yellow River subaqueous delta is discussed, and the consolidation settlement characteristics of the delta sediments are inversed and predicted in this paper. The actual void ratio of the delta sediments at the depth from 3 to 15 m shows a significant power function relationship with the depth, while the void ratio of the sediments below 15 m changes little with depth. The pre-consolidation settlement(from deposition to sampling) of the delta sediments is between 0.91 and 1.96 m, while the consolidation settlement of unit depth is between 9.6 and 14.0 cm m^(-1). The post-consolidation settlement(from sampling to stable) of the subaqueous delta sediments is between 0.65 and 1.56 m in the later stage, and the consolidation settlement of unit depth is between 7.6 and 13.1 cm m^(-1) under the overburden stress. The delta sediments with a buried depth of 3 to 7 m contribute the most to the possible consolidation settlement in the later stage.展开更多
Evidence on the lifetime risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease （ASCVD） is insufficient; yet, estimating an individual＇s lifetime risk allows for a comprehensive assessment of ASCVD burden. We developed an...Evidence on the lifetime risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease （ASCVD） is insufficient; yet, estimating an individual＇s lifetime risk allows for a comprehensive assessment of ASCVD burden. We developed and validated lifetime risk prediction equations for ASCVD using four large and ongoing prospective cohorts of Chinese, the China-PAR project （Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China）. Sexspecific equations were developed using two cohorts （as the derivation cohort） of 21,320 participants. Two other independent cohorts with 14,123 and 70,838 participants were used for their external valida- tion, respectively. We evaluated both calibration and discrimination measures for model performance. Furthermore, we estimated ASCVD-ffee years lost or excess absolute risk attributable to high 10-year risk （≥10.0%） and]or high lifetime risk （≥32.8%）. After 12.3 years＇ follow-up of the derivation cohort, 1048 ASCVD events and 1304 non-ASCVD deaths were identified. Our sex-specific equations had good internal validation, with discriminant C statistics of 0.776 （95% confidence interval [CI]： 0.757-0.794） and 0.801 （95% CI： 0.778-0.825）, and calibration Z2 of 9.2 （P = 0.418） and 5.6 （P = 0.777） for men and women, respectively. Good external validation was also demonstrated with predicted rates closely matched to the observed ones. Compared with men having both low 10-year and low lifetime risk, men would develop ASCVD 3.0, 4.6 and 8.6 years earlier if they had high 10-year risk alone, high lifetime risk alone, or both high 10-year and high lifetime risk at the index age of 35 years, respectively. We developed well- performed lifetime risk prediction equations that will help to identify those with the greatest potential to avert ASCVD burden after implementation of innovative clinical and public health interventions in China.展开更多
基金financially supported by the Laboratory for Marine Geology, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (No. MGQNLM-KF20 1715)the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaShandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (No. U1606401)+1 种基金the Special Fund of Chinese Central Government for Basic Scientific Research Operations in Commonweal Research Institutes (No. 2015G08)the National Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China (No. 41206054)
文摘The modern Yellow River delta is formed near the estuary of the Yellow River with the characteristics of short formation time, efficient sedimentation rate and loose structure which make sediments prone to be compacted and consolidate under the geostatic stress and overburden stress. It is one of the key areas with land subsidence disasters in China, bringing a series of safety hazards to production and living. Based on the data of massive surface cores and ten drill holes ranging from 12 to 40 m obtained from the northern modern Yellow River subaqueous delta, the inversion method suitable for the calculation of consolidation settlement characteristics of the modern Yellow River subaqueous delta is discussed, and the consolidation settlement characteristics of the delta sediments are inversed and predicted in this paper. The actual void ratio of the delta sediments at the depth from 3 to 15 m shows a significant power function relationship with the depth, while the void ratio of the sediments below 15 m changes little with depth. The pre-consolidation settlement(from deposition to sampling) of the delta sediments is between 0.91 and 1.96 m, while the consolidation settlement of unit depth is between 9.6 and 14.0 cm m^(-1). The post-consolidation settlement(from sampling to stable) of the subaqueous delta sediments is between 0.65 and 1.56 m in the later stage, and the consolidation settlement of unit depth is between 7.6 and 13.1 cm m^(-1) under the overburden stress. The delta sediments with a buried depth of 3 to 7 m contribute the most to the possible consolidation settlement in the later stage.
基金supported by the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences(2017-I2M-1-004)the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2017YFC0211700,2011BAI11B03,2011BAI09B03,and 2006BAI01A01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(91643208)
文摘Evidence on the lifetime risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease （ASCVD） is insufficient; yet, estimating an individual＇s lifetime risk allows for a comprehensive assessment of ASCVD burden. We developed and validated lifetime risk prediction equations for ASCVD using four large and ongoing prospective cohorts of Chinese, the China-PAR project （Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China）. Sexspecific equations were developed using two cohorts （as the derivation cohort） of 21,320 participants. Two other independent cohorts with 14,123 and 70,838 participants were used for their external valida- tion, respectively. We evaluated both calibration and discrimination measures for model performance. Furthermore, we estimated ASCVD-ffee years lost or excess absolute risk attributable to high 10-year risk （≥10.0%） and]or high lifetime risk （≥32.8%）. After 12.3 years＇ follow-up of the derivation cohort, 1048 ASCVD events and 1304 non-ASCVD deaths were identified. Our sex-specific equations had good internal validation, with discriminant C statistics of 0.776 （95% confidence interval [CI]： 0.757-0.794） and 0.801 （95% CI： 0.778-0.825）, and calibration Z2 of 9.2 （P = 0.418） and 5.6 （P = 0.777） for men and women, respectively. Good external validation was also demonstrated with predicted rates closely matched to the observed ones. Compared with men having both low 10-year and low lifetime risk, men would develop ASCVD 3.0, 4.6 and 8.6 years earlier if they had high 10-year risk alone, high lifetime risk alone, or both high 10-year and high lifetime risk at the index age of 35 years, respectively. We developed well- performed lifetime risk prediction equations that will help to identify those with the greatest potential to avert ASCVD burden after implementation of innovative clinical and public health interventions in China.
