In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future,a special diagnosis analysis was made on the process of the torrential ra...In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future,a special diagnosis analysis was made on the process of the torrential rain.The meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system（MICAPS） 3.1 was used to carry out the analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data,and finally numerical weather prediction was tested,which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain.The results showed that one of the important reason of the torrential rain was caused by the combined effects of the dry cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet flow,and the terrain influence caused by the Yishan in southern Liju County and the water evaporation in Mihe River was also an important reason.The main reason for the omission of the rain was caused by the over dependent on the rainfall forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of small scale process as well as analysis of the physical quantity field.Therefore,it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze all kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain.Besides,the forecaster should improve their ability in revising the numerical weather prediction.展开更多
基金Supported by the Special Project for the Weathermen of Shandong Province(sdyby2012-07)~~
文摘In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future,a special diagnosis analysis was made on the process of the torrential rain.The meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system（MICAPS） 3.1 was used to carry out the analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data,and finally numerical weather prediction was tested,which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain.The results showed that one of the important reason of the torrential rain was caused by the combined effects of the dry cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet flow,and the terrain influence caused by the Yishan in southern Liju County and the water evaporation in Mihe River was also an important reason.The main reason for the omission of the rain was caused by the over dependent on the rainfall forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of small scale process as well as analysis of the physical quantity field.Therefore,it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze all kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain.Besides,the forecaster should improve their ability in revising the numerical weather prediction.
