基于中报数据的上市公司财务预警模型构建与检验

国内外学者关于财务预警模型的研究大都以上市公司年报数据为样本数据。在我国,由于上市公司年报公告的时间与当年有关机构宣布ST公司名单的时间比较接近,而距下年有关机构宣布ST公司名单的时间则比较远,因此,用ST前一年的年报数据来预测当年或下年的警情,都具有较大的局限性。实证研究结果表明,采用上市公司中报数据构建的财务预警模型,不仅具有很高的预警准确率,而且比基于年报数据的模型更具有较强的预警时效性。

Comparison of wind data from ERA-Interim and buoys in the Yellow and East China Seas

We compared data of sea surface wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim) with that collected from eight buoys deployed in the Yellow and East China seas.The buoy data covered a period from 2010 to 2011,during which the longest time series without missing data extended for 329 days.Results show that the ERA-Interim wind data agree well with the buoy data.The regression coefficients between the ERA-Interim and observed wind speed and direction are greater than 0.7 and 0.79,respectively.However,the ERA-Interim wind data overestimate wind speed at most of the buoy stations,for which the largest bias is 1.8 m/s.Moreover,it is found from scatter plots of wind direction that about 13%of the ERA-Interim wind data can be classified as bad for wind speeds below6 m/s.Overall,the ERA-Interim data forecast both the wind speed and direction well,although they are not very representative of our observations,especially those where the wind speed is below 6 m/s.

Evaluation of ERA-Interim Monthly Temperature Data over the Tibetan Plateau

In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.

B股中报分析

透析上半年B股市场的运营状况,揭示上市公司中报所披露总体业绩水平,对于重新发掘B股市场的投资价值,预测B股市场走势具有意义。紧锣密鼓的中报披露工作告一段落,今年的证券市场似乎格外平静,没有掀起什么波澜。然而透析上半年B股市场的运营状况,揭示上市公司中报所披露总体业绩水平。