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人民币均衡汇率失调问题研究--一个改进的简约单方程BEER模型分析 被引量:1
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作者 郑佳 林斌 《金融理论与实践》 北大核心 2008年第4期32-35,共4页
本文在传统的BEER模型的基础上对影响人民币均衡汇率的宏观经济中期因素和长期因素进行细分,构建一个改进的简约单方程模型,并利用国际货币基金组织提供的数据进行实证分析,并测算人民币汇率失调程度,最后得出结论:这几年我国劳动生产... 本文在传统的BEER模型的基础上对影响人民币均衡汇率的宏观经济中期因素和长期因素进行细分,构建一个改进的简约单方程模型,并利用国际货币基金组织提供的数据进行实证分析,并测算人民币汇率失调程度,最后得出结论:这几年我国劳动生产率的不断提高以及贸易条件的改善,要求人民币汇率在一个较长的时期内不断升值,而开放度等宏观经济因素在中期内则起着相反的作用,因此人民币汇率变动受到宏观经济基本面的综合影响。 展开更多
关键词 人民币均衡汇率 失调 BEER 中期因素 长期因素
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Research on China's Aquaculture Efficiency Evaluation and Influencing Factors with Undesirable Outputs 被引量:2
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作者 JI Jianyue WANG Pingping 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS 2015年第3期569-574,共6页
Taking the aquaculture area, the number of farming boats and that of aquaculturist as input variables, the aquaculture production as desirable output variable and polluted economic loss as undesirable output variable,... Taking the aquaculture area, the number of farming boats and that of aquaculturist as input variables, the aquaculture production as desirable output variable and polluted economic loss as undesirable output variable, this paper conducts SBM model to evaluate the aquaculture efficiency based on the data of 16 aquaculture-developed provinces in China from 2004 to 2011. The results show the efficiency in China has not changed much in recent years with the efficiency values mainly between 0.39 and 0.53, and the efficiency of marine-aquaculture-dominated provinces is generally higher than that of freshwater-aquaculture-dominated ones. To analyze the difference under the efficiency, the panel Tobit model is used with education level factor, training factor, technology extension factor, technical level factor, scale factor and species factor as the efficiency influencing factors. The results show that technology extension factor and technical level factor have significant positive influence. 展开更多
关键词 China's aquaculture industry efficiency evaluation influencing factors SBM model panel Tobit model
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Pulling Vs. Pushing:Effect of Climatic Factors on Periodical Fluctuation of Russian and South Korean Tourist Demand in Hainan Island,China 被引量:1
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作者 CHEN Fan LIU Jun GE Quansheng 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第4期648-659,共12页
While climate is an important factor attracting tourists to certain destinations,it can also motivate people residing in a country with a harsh climate to move to another location.By applying X-12 decompositions and a... While climate is an important factor attracting tourists to certain destinations,it can also motivate people residing in a country with a harsh climate to move to another location.By applying X-12 decompositions and a panel data regression analysis,this study analyzes the pull and push effects of climatic seasonal factors between destination(Hainan Island,China) and source countries(Russia and South Korea).The findings show that climatic seasonal factors have significant pulling and pushing effects on seasonal patterns of tourism demand,with temperature being the main factor.Furthermore,the number of paid vacation days in the source country affects that country's sensitivity to climatic seasonal factors;countries with a higher numbers of paid vacation days are more sensitive to climatic conditions.Lastly,future global warming may causes the aforementioned pull and push effects to abate,which will have an unavoidable influence on tourism industries. 展开更多
关键词 seasonality climate tourism demand Hainan Island China
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我们亦将告别低通胀
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作者 彭文生 《财新周刊》 2022年第30期7-7,共1页
中国CPI同比短短数月从1%以下快速上行至6月份的2.5%,同比破3%近在眼前。当前主流观点是猪周期是独立现象,总体通胀可能不会上行。我们认为这个观点忽视了影响通胀的中期因素。展望未来一段时间,在供给约束没有完全消除、需求端政策继... 中国CPI同比短短数月从1%以下快速上行至6月份的2.5%,同比破3%近在眼前。当前主流观点是猪周期是独立现象,总体通胀可能不会上行。我们认为这个观点忽视了影响通胀的中期因素。展望未来一段时间,在供给约束没有完全消除、需求端政策继续发力的情况下,中国通胀大概率将呈现上行态势。 展开更多
关键词 供给约束 展望未来 通胀 猪周期 需求端 中期因素 主流观点
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China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural? 被引量:5
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作者 Xuefeng Qian Zhao Liu Ying Pan 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2017年第6期65-83,共19页
This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012-2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global va... This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012-2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation, Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import-intensity- adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012-2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000-2015 industry- level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy-makers. 展开更多
关键词 cyclical factor structural factor trade slowdown
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The Safety-influencing Factors in Use of the Tonics of Chinese Medicine: A Meta-analysis Based on the Case Reports in Periodicals
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作者 于静 崔蒙 +1 位作者 李海燕 叶祖光 《Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第2期130-135,共6页
Objective: To identify the possible safety-influencing factors in use of the tonics of Chinese medicine. Methods: The related case reports published in periodicals published from 1949 to 2006 were analyzed with the bi... Objective: To identify the possible safety-influencing factors in use of the tonics of Chinese medicine. Methods: The related case reports published in periodicals published from 1949 to 2006 were analyzed with the bibliometrics method. Possibility on safety assessment of Chinese materia medica was discussed as well with the method of link analysis. Results: The total number of the tonics selected for the present study was 101, including 44 single drugs and 46 set prescriptions with adverse drug reactions (ADR) found in these tonics. It was found that ADR of 10 single drugs and 29 preparations were not specified in authoritative Chinese materia medica monographs. Among all the set prescriptions, the problem of injection has been standing on the top. Statistical analysis on single factor demonstrates that the most frequently referred ADR come from drug abuse (accounting for 29.20%), and overdose (24.54%). Conclusion: The safety problem of injection remains in a trend of robust growth at least for a period of time, thus reappraisal of the safety issue for the tonics of injection is imperative. It is essential for the public to take doctor’s advice to guarantee safe administration of the tonics, especially for the patients with allergic constitution or those suffering from the liver and heart diseases. 展开更多
关键词 safety-influencing factors tonics of Chinese medicine case reports
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