In this article, we propose a novel, multilevel, dynamic factor model, to determine endogenously clustered regions for the investigation of regional clustering and synchronization of provincial business fluctuations i...In this article, we propose a novel, multilevel, dynamic factor model, to determine endogenously clustered regions for the investigation of regional clustering and synchronization of provincial business fluctuations in China. The parameter identification and model estimation was conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We then conducted an empirical study of the provincial business fluctuations in China(31 Chinese provinces are considered except Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan due to the data unavailability), which were sampled from January 2000 to December 2015. Our results indicated that these provinces could be clustered into four regions: leading, coincident, lagging, and overshooting. In comparison with traditional geographical divisions, this novel clustering into four regions enabled the regional business cycle synchronization to be more accurately captured. Within the four regional clusters it was possible to identify substantial heterogeneities among regional business cycle fluctuations, especially during the periods of the 2008 financial crisis and the ‘four-trillion economic stimulus plan'.展开更多
Either in the developed countries or developing countries,the small and medium enterprises（SMEs）have been playing a significant role in promoting the technological progress,employment,export, etc.Especially in the m...Either in the developed countries or developing countries,the small and medium enterprises（SMEs）have been playing a significant role in promoting the technological progress,employment,export, etc.Especially in the modern society with efficient development of knowledge and information,which is making the production and business operation smaller and more dispersed,and with more family participation as well,SMEs are becoming a more and more important force of the social and economic development. Although the SMEs have made very important contributions to the national economic development and the increase of employment,they are thirsty of more government and social supports,especially for the overseas development.In order to meet the mission of promoting the SMEs development,the Ministry of Commerce has established Department for SMEs. In July,China＇s Foreign Trade inte viewed Zhu Shuhai,Director of Department for SMEs,Trade Development Bureau,Ministry,of Commerce.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71371160)the Program for Changjiang Youth Scholars(No.Q2016131)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(No.NCET-13-0509)
文摘In this article, we propose a novel, multilevel, dynamic factor model, to determine endogenously clustered regions for the investigation of regional clustering and synchronization of provincial business fluctuations in China. The parameter identification and model estimation was conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We then conducted an empirical study of the provincial business fluctuations in China(31 Chinese provinces are considered except Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan due to the data unavailability), which were sampled from January 2000 to December 2015. Our results indicated that these provinces could be clustered into four regions: leading, coincident, lagging, and overshooting. In comparison with traditional geographical divisions, this novel clustering into four regions enabled the regional business cycle synchronization to be more accurately captured. Within the four regional clusters it was possible to identify substantial heterogeneities among regional business cycle fluctuations, especially during the periods of the 2008 financial crisis and the ‘four-trillion economic stimulus plan'.
文摘Either in the developed countries or developing countries,the small and medium enterprises（SMEs）have been playing a significant role in promoting the technological progress,employment,export, etc.Especially in the modern society with efficient development of knowledge and information,which is making the production and business operation smaller and more dispersed,and with more family participation as well,SMEs are becoming a more and more important force of the social and economic development. Although the SMEs have made very important contributions to the national economic development and the increase of employment,they are thirsty of more government and social supports,especially for the overseas development.In order to meet the mission of promoting the SMEs development,the Ministry of Commerce has established Department for SMEs. In July,China＇s Foreign Trade inte viewed Zhu Shuhai,Director of Department for SMEs,Trade Development Bureau,Ministry,of Commerce.
