子流域划分对HSPF模型径流模拟效果的影响

在水文水质模拟过程中,子流域划分数量直接影响模拟结果的精确度,确定最佳子流域划分方案对提高模拟精确度至关重要。基于PEST-HSPF模型,以中河流域为例,在相同参数及不同参数条件下,采用PEST自动校准方法,判断子流域划分数量对流量模拟精确度的影响。结果表明,在相同水文参数下,子流域划分数量变化时,模拟流量的纳什系数(NSE)和可决系数(R2)在0.65~0.78之间波动,其中子流域划分数量在10~20之间对模拟结果的精确度影响最大;在不同水文参数下,径流模拟结果的NSE与R2随子流域划分数量的增加先增大后减小,相对误差(RE)在子流域划分数量介于1~10之间时急剧下降后趋于稳定;子流域划分对HSPF水文模拟效果影响显著,表现出阈值效应,当划分数量超出阈值范围时,径流模拟精度均会受到很大影响。

Multiple Time Scale Analysis of River Runoff Using Wavelet Transform for Dagujia River Basin, Yantai, China

Based on monthly river runoff and meteorological data, a method of Morlet wavelet transform was used to analyze the multiple time scale characteristics of river runoff in the Dagujia River Basin, Yantai City, Shandong Province. The results showed that the total annual river runoffin the Dagujia River Basin decreased significantly from 1966 to 2004, and the rate of decrease was 48× 10^6ma/10yr, which was higher than the mean value of most rivers in China. Multiple time scale characteristics existed, which accounted for different aspects of the changes in annual river runoff, and the major periods of the runofftime series were identified as about 28 years, 14 years and 4 years with decreasing levels of fluctuation. The river runoff evolution process was controlled by changes in precipitation to a certain extent, but it was also greatly influenced by human activities. Also, for different time periods and scales, the impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual river runoff evolution occurred at the same time. Changes in the annual river runoffwere mainly associated with climate change before the 1980s and with human activities after 1981.

Road Lateral Disconnection and Crossing Impacts in River Landscape of Lancang River Valley in Yunnan Province,China

Roads are conspicuous components in a river landscape;however,their impacts on river landscape patterns and ecological processes have not been systematically studied at the watershed scale.In this paper,the Lancang River Valley in Yunnan Province,China was selected as a case to study road lateral disconnection and crossing impacts and identify river-road network interaction.This study was primarily focused on the road impacts on soil erosion intensity and patch density by using GIS analysis at different scales and explored their distribution with terrain factors.The results showed that river density revealed spatial autocorrelation although both of the roads and rivers were distributed unevenly in the valley.The lateral road(road curvature≥1.1)proportion correlated with soil erosion intensity(p 0.01)at the small sub-basin scale.Soil erosion intensity decreased with increasing lateral road buffer width.Light erosion generally accounted for a large proportion of the erosion in the lateral road buffer zones(1.0–4.0 km),while higher class lateral roads imposed greater impacts on soil erosion than lower class roads,which primarily had a moderate erosion level.In addition,the results of road-river intersection density indicated that road crossing impacts were significantly correlated with patch density at the small sub-basin scale.Topography factor(percent of slope>25°in each sub-basin had a close relationship with the ratio of total length of road line with curvature value≥1.1 to the total number of intersections.The correlation(p 0.01)between road impacts and terrain factor revealed that topography affected the road impact distribution in the Lancang River Valley.

Variation of Extreme Precipitation over Large River Basins in China

A new available dataset of daily observational precipitation is used to study the temporal and spatial variability of extreme precipitation events for 1956-2008 in the ten large river basins of China. The maximum daily rainfall and heavy precipitation days （≥50 mm d^-1） are analyzed for the basins of the Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River, Northwest China Rivers, Huaihe River, Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast China Rivers, and Southwest China Rivers. The results indicate that the maximum daily rainfall was increasing in southern river basins, while it was decreasing in northern river basins, which leads to no discernible increasing or decreasing trend in the maximum daily rainfall of whole China,especially 2001. The national averaged heavy precipitation days shows an insignificant increase. However, a rise in heavy precipitation days of southern river basins and a decline of northern river basins are observed.

Glacial Runoff Likely Reached Peak in the Mountainous Areas of the Shiyang River Basin,China

Glacier runoff in mountain areas of the Shiyang River Basin(SRB), Qilian Mountain, western China is important for the river and water supply downstream. Small glaciers with area of less than 1km2 are dominant(87%) in the SRB. A modified monthly degree-day model was applied to quantify the glacier mass balance, area, and changes in glacier runoff in the SRB during 1961–2050. The comparison between the simulated and observed snow line altitude, annual glacier runoff, and mass balance from1961 to 2008 suggests that the degree-day model may be used to analyze the long-term change of glacier mass balance and runoff in the SRB. The glacier accumulation shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-0.830 mm a-1. The mass balance also shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-5.521 mm a-1. The glacier total runoff has significantly(p<0.05)increased by 0.079 × 105 m3 from 1961 to 2008. The monthly precipitation and air temperature are projected to significant(p<0.005) increase during2015 to 2050 under three different scenarios. The ablation is projected to significant(p<0.001) increase,while the accumulation has no significant(p=0.05)trend. The mass balance is projected to decrease, theglacier area is projected to decrease, and the glacier runoff depth is projected to increase. However, the glacier total runoff is projected to decrease. These results indicate that the glacier total runoff over glacier areas observed in 1970 reached its peak in the 2000 s. This will exacerbate the contradiction between water supply and downstream water demands in the SRB.

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in River Basins of China Projected by RegCM4

In this study, a historic simulation covering the period from 1951 to 2000 and three projected scenario simulations covering 2001-2050 were conducted em- ploying the regional climate model RegCM4 to detect the changes of terrestrial water storage （TWS） in major river basins of China, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES）： A1B, A2, and B1. The historic simula- tion revealed that the variations of TWS, which are dominated by precipitation in the basins, rely highly on their climatic features. Compared with the historic simu- lation, the changes of TWS in the scenario simulations showed strong regional differences. However, for all sce- narios, TWS was found to increase most in Northeast China and surrounding mountains around the Tibetan Plateau, and decrease most in eastern regions of China. Unlike the low seasonal variations of TWS in arid areas, the TWS showed strong seasonal variations in eastern monsoon areas, with the maximum changes usually oc- curring in summer, when TWS increases most in a year. Among the three scenario simulations, TWS increased most in Songhua River Basin of B1 scenario, and de- creased most in Pearl River Basin of A2 scenario and Hal River Basin of A1B scenario, accompanied by different annual trends and seasonal variations.

Coordination of Urbanization and Water Ecological Environment in Shayinghe River Basin,China

During the rapid industrialization and urbanization of China,urban agglomeration in river basin areas raises the problems of over-use of water resources and pollution of the water environment.Related research in China has mainly focused on the conflicts among economic growth,urban expansion and water resource shortages within admin-istrative boundaries.However,water environments are much more dependent on their physical boundaries than their administrative boundaries.Consistent with the nature of water environment,this study aims at analyzing coordination relationships between urban development and water environment changes within physical river basin boundaries.We chose the Shayinghe River Basin,China,as our case study area which is facing serious challenges related to water en-vironment protection.Then we classified 35 county-level administrative units into upstream,midstream and down-stream regions based on their physical characteristics;analyzed the coordination degree of urban agglomeration using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method;and constructed cooperative models using the Linear Programming (LP function) to simulate four scenarios of the coordination relationship be-tween urban population increase and water environment protection based on existing water resources and water pollu-tion data.The results show that the present coordinative situation in Shayinghe River Basin is not sustainable.In gen-eral,more than 50% administrative units are in the bad coordinative situation.In particular,the downstream region is under worse condition than the upstream and midstream regions.Cooperative models in scenario analyses indicate that the population scale set in existing urban master plannings is not coordinated with the water environment protection.To reach the goal of regional sustainable development,the total population needs to be controlled such that it will re-main at 4.5×10 7 or below by 2020 given the capacity of water environment.

The Variability of the Snow and Ice Melt in Alpine Rivers in Northwestern China

The study of snow and ice melt （SIM） is important in water-scarce arid regions for the assessment of water supply and quality. These studies involve unique difficulties, especially in the calibration of hydro-models because there is no direct way to continuously measure the SIM at hydrostations. The recursive digital filter （RDF） and the isotopic hydro-geochemical method （IHM） were coupled to separate the SIM from eight observed series of alpine streamflows in northwestern China. Validation of the calibrated methods suggested a good capture of the SIM characteristics with fair accuracy in both space and time. Applications of the coupled methods in the upper reaches of the Hei River Basin （HRB） suggested a double peak curve of the SIM fraction to streamflow for the multi-component recharged （MCR） rivers, while a single peak curve was suggested for the rainfall-dominant recharged （RDR） rivers. Given inter-annual statistics of the separation, both types of the alpine rivers have experienced an obvious decrease of SIM since 196os. In the past 10 years, the SIM in the two types of rivers has risen to the levels of the 1970s, but has remained lower than the level of the 1960s. The study provided a considerable evidence to quantify the alpine SIMbased on the separation of observed data series at gauge stations. Application of the coupled method could be helpful in the calibration and validation of SIM-related hydro-models in alpine regions.

Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow of Dongliao River Watershed in Jilin Province,China

The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Prov-ince, China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model （HadCM3） coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009. The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series, derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435~C per decade, and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade. Compared with other seasons, the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend, while a significant upward trend in autumn. The annual streamflow demonstrates a general down-ward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m^3/s per decade. The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn, respectively. The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m^3/s per decade, which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow. The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area.

Vulnerability of Water Resources and Its Spatial Heterogeneity in Haihe River Basin, China

To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerabil- ity, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions （Class II WRRs）, third-class water resource regions （Class III WRRs）, Province-Class II WRRs, and Province-Class III WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class II WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class III WRRs and Province-Class III WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management.

Permeability and Sedimentation Characteristics of Pleistocene Fluvio-glacial Deposits in the Dadu River Valley,Southwest China

There exist many fluvio-glacial deposits in the valley of Dadu River, Southwest China, which dates back to the Pleistocene. As some of the deposits are located within the seasonal water fluctuation zone of reservoirs, the seepage of groundwater acts as one of the key factors influencing their stability. Investigation into the sediment properties and permeability is, therefore, crucial for evaluating the sediment stability. In this study, in-situ permeability and sieving tests have been carried out to determine grain size distribution, correlations of permeability and hydraulic gradients, and relations between permeability and sedimentation properties. Test results indicate that the deposits are composed mostly of sands, gravels, cobbles and boulders, and the percentage of fines is less than 5%. The sediments have high densities, low porosities and natural moisture contents. At low hydraulic gradients, the seepage velocity obeys the Darcy＇s law, while a non- Darcy permeability is observed with hydraulic gradient exceeding a certain value （about 0.5 - 0.7）. The linear permeability coefficient ranges from 0.003 to 0.009 cm/s. Seepage failure occurs above a threshold between 1.1 and 1.5. The test data fit well with the non-linear permeability equations suggested by Forchheimer and Izbash. The non-Darcy permeability proves to be in accordance with the seepage equation suggested by Izbash with the power ＇m＇ of about 0.6 - 0.7. The characteristic grain sizes of the studied deposits are found in a narrow range between 0.024 and o.o31 mm, which is much lowerthan the effective grain size （dlo）.

Assimilating ASAR Data for Estimating Soil Moisture Profile Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Active microwave remote sensing data were used to calculate the near-surface soil moisture in the vegetated areas.In this study,Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar(ASAR)observations of surface soil moisture content were used in a data assimilation framework to improve the estimation of the soil moisture profile at the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin,Northwest China.A one-dimensional soil moisture assimilation system based on the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF),the forward radiative transfer model,crop model,and the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model(DHSVM)was developed.The crop model,as a semi-empirical model,was used to estimate the surface backscattering of vegetated areas.The DHSVM is a distributed hydrology-vegetation model that explicitly represents the effects of topography and vegetation on water fluxes through the landscape.Numerical experiments were conducted to assimilate the ASAR data into the DHSVM and in situ soil moisture at the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin from June20 to July 15,2008.The results indicated that EnKF is effective for assimilating ASAR observations into the hydrological model.Compared with the simulation and in situ observations,the assimilated results were significantly improved in the surface layer and root layer,and the soil moisture varied slightly in the deep layer.Additionally,EnKF is an efficient approach to handle the strongly nonlinear problem which is practical and effective for soil moisture estimation by assimilation of remote sensing data.Moreover,to improve the assimilation results,further studies on obtaining more reliable forcing data and model parameters and increasing the efficiency and accuracy of the remote sensing observations are needed,also improving estimation accuracy of model operator is important.

Fossil woods from the Upper Cretaceous to Paleocene of Heilongjang(Amur)River area of China and Russia

Fossil woods were collected from the Upper Cretaceous to Paleocene beds distributed around Heilong- jang （Amur） River area of China and Russia. A total of 43 specimens were collected from Baishantou, Long- gushan, and Yong＇ancun in Jiayin, China, and 85 specimens from Zeya-Bureya Basin lying southeast of Blagoveshchensk in Russia. Selected specimens were sectioned and studied anatomically. The source deposits of almost all identifiable specimens belong to the Upper Cretaceous （Campanian） Taipinglinchang Formation and the Paleocene Wuyun Formation in China, and the Paleocene Upper Tsagayan Formation in Russia. Al- though the results obtained are still far from complete, the taxonomic composition of the fossil woods show marked stratigraphic differences between the two horizons beyond the K/T boundary in China. There is also a strong similarity in wood flora between the Wuyun Formation of China and the Upper Tsagayan Formation of Russia. All identified specimens from the Taipinglinchang Formation are Xenoxylon latiporosum, This is one of the stratigraphically younger records of Xenoxylon, which is a conifer morphogenus of uncertain affinity most common in the Triassic to Early Cretaceous. Only one specimen with possible derivation from either the Wuyun or the Maastriehtian Furao Formation in China was identified as Taxodioxylon sp. The Wuyun Formation yielded both conifers and dicotyledonous woods. The conifers include Taxodioxylon sequoianum of the Taxodiaceae, and Protopiceoxylon amurense, which is attributable to the extant genera Keteleeria or Nothotsuga of the Pinaeeac, both are at present endemic to China. At least two morphotypes of dicotyledonous woods were recognized, with one identified as el. Hamamelidoxylon , and the other diffuse porous wood is characterized by numerous heterogeneous rays. From the Zeya-Buleya Basin of Russia, Taxodioxylon sequoianum and cf. Hamamelidoxylon sp. were identified from the Upper Tsagayan Formation. The similarity of wood composition in both Wuyun and Upper Tsagayan Formations support lithological as well as biostratigraphic correlations proposed for the two formations.

Livelihood Strategy Change and Land Use Change——Case of Danzam Village in Upper Dadu River Watershed,Tibetan Plateau of China

Land use change in rural China since the 1980s, induced by institution reforms, urbanization, industrialization and population increase, has received more attention. However, case studies on how institution reforms affect farmers＇ livelihood strategies and drive land use change are scarce. By means of cropland plots investigations and interviews with farmers, this study examines livelihood strategy change and land use change in Danzam Village of Jinchuan County in the upper Dadu River watershed, eastern Tibetan Plateau, China. The results show that, during the collective system period, as surplus labor forces could not be transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, they had to choose agricultural involution as their livelihood strategy, then the farmers had to produce more grains by land reclamation, increasing multiple cropping index, improving input of labor, fertilizer, pesticide and adopting advanced agricultural techniques. During the household responsibility system period, as labors being transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, farmers chose livelihood diversification strategy. Therefore, labor input to grain planting was greatly reduced, which drove the transformation of grain to horticulture, vegetable or wasteland and decrease of multiple cropping index. This study provides a new insight into understanding linkages among institution reforms, livelihood strategy of smallholders and land use change in rural China.

Spatial Effect of Mineral Resources Exploitation on Urbanization:A Case Study of Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China

Mineral resources exploitation significantly affects the spatial structure and evolutive trend of urbanization in arid areas.In this study,the spatial autocorrelation method and the spatial computation model were used to investigate the spatial impacts of mineral resources excavation and processing on comprehensive level of urbanization in the Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China for the years of 2000,2006 and 2008.The results are as follows:1)There was a spatial correlation of the development of mineral resources industry and the comprehensive level of urbanization in 2006 and 2008,with the spatial concentration trend rising significantly in 2006 and decreasing in 2008.2)The patterns of local spatial concentration of mineral resources industry and of the comprehensive level of urbanization were relatively stable,and the two patterns showed signs of spatial correlationship.The higher was the degree of the concentration of mineral resources industry,the stronger was its impact on the spatial clustering of urbanization.3)In 2000, mineral resources excavation and processing had a significant positive impact on the comprehensive level of urbanization in the region but not in its adjacent regions.However,in 2008,mineral resources excavation and processing significantly raised the comprehensive level of urbanization not only in the region but also in its neighboring regions.This research demonstrates that the development of mineral resources industry can strongly affect the trends and spatial patterns of urbanization.

Impacts of Global Warming Perturbation on Water Resources in Arid Zone: Case Study of Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China

The main goal of this study was to assess the long-term impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources of the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. Temperature, precipitation and hydrology data during the past 29 years from 1979 to 2007 were collected and analyzed using parametric and non-parametric methods, the connection between temperature and precipitation by the combination of grey correlation analysis method and the hypothesis testing for trend of climate change. The results show a high increase in temperature in the study area as well as an extreme and highly variable hydrological regime in this region, where flash floods can exceed the total runoff from a sequence of years. These variations may be due to the geographical location of the Kaidu River Basin in arid zone. It also reveals that precipitation has a much greater impact on stream flow than that of temperature. The development of new approaches was proposed as responses to climate change in this arid region.

Responses of River Runoff to Climate Change Based on Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model in Chaohe River Basin of Hebei Province, China

Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.

Study on the Non-point Source Pollution in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Taoer River Basin

The Taoer River basin is the epitome in the west of Northeast China and it is one of the most fragile and sensitive ecoregions. Thus, protection of water quality of the Taoer River is important. Not only point source pollution but non-point source (NPS) pollution results in deteriorating water quality. In this study, long-term hydrologic impact assessment model was used to evaluate the impacts of land use change impacts on NPS pollution, and the replacement cost method was used to calculate the economic loss caused by NPS pollution. Through analyzing the NPS pollutant loads of different land categories and the economic loss, the article puts forward that there exists a close relationship between land-use types and NPS pollution, and agricultural pollution is the main component of the NPS pollution in this area. The results of this study can provide decision-making basis for agricultural development and land-use change.

Sediment Delivery across Multiple Spatio-temporal Scales in an Agriculture Watershed of the Chinese Loess Plateau

There is a consensus that sediment delivery ratio in the Chinese Loess Plateau is close to 1at the inter-annual timescale. However, little information is available about the sediment delivery at finer timescales. We evaluated the sediment delivery from plots to watersheds at the event or intra-annual, annual, and inter-annual timescales within the Wudinghe river basin, a 30,261 km2 basin in the Loess Plateau. We calculated the ratio of sediment output to sediment input and presented the temporal change of the channel morphology to determine whether sediment deposition occurs.Although a single flood event frequently has a sediment yield exceeding 10,000 t km-2, sediment deposition rarely occurs except during some small runoff events(sediment yield < 5000 t km-2) or dry years(sediment yield < 10,000 t km-2) when moving from slopes up to the main channels of the Wudinghe River. This observation suggests a sediment delivery ratio close to 1 even at the event or intra-annual and the annual timescales, but not necessarily at the interannual timescale. Such a high sediment delivery ratio can be related to hyper-concentrated flows, which have very strong sediment transport capacity even at low flow strength. Because hyper-concentrated flows are well-developed in the whole Loess Plateau, a sediment delivery ratio close to 1 below the interannual timescale possibly remains true for other rivers in the Loess Plateau.

Consumption of Ecosystem Services: A Conceptual Framework and Case Study in Jinghe Watershed

The global ecosystem is changing due to human and natural causes, and only the human aspects of this interaction are within our control. This paper provides a critical analysis of the interactions between humans and the ecosystem in terms of the human consumption of ecosystem services to maintain a comfortable lifestyle. It starts by reviewing human consumption of ecosystem services, and then develops a conceptual framework that links ecosystem services with consumption of these services and ecosystem management to construct a general functional model of the factors that affect the consumption of ecosystem services. A case study is introduced to show how the model can be used to provide specific assessments of patterns of direct human consumption of ecosystem services in China’s Jinghe watershed.