The internal consumption and production structure of the service industry that now dominates the Chinese economy needs to be optimized.Introducing supply-side structural reform to improve the in-depth integration of a...The internal consumption and production structure of the service industry that now dominates the Chinese economy needs to be optimized.Introducing supply-side structural reform to improve the in-depth integration of advanced manufacturing and the modern service industry and promoting a strong domestic market is the key to escaping the middle income trap.We use 1950-2010 data from 45 non-oil-exporting economies representing the structural evolution of the service industry worldwide to compare Asian economies that have passed through the middle income trap with Latin American counterparts that remain stuck in the trap,and thence proceed to construct a matched model that covers the consumption and production service industries and their supply of human capital,with the aim of identifying the formative mechanisms and conditions for escaping the middle income trap through upgrading the structure of the service industry.Substantially developing the production service sector,raising the supply of public services so as to cultivate the quantity and quality of human capital,and matching senior-level human capital with knowledge-intensive serviceindustries will propel the upgrading and transformation of China’s economic structure toward high-quality development.展开更多
When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage,their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity(TFP).This is a typical patter...When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage,their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity(TFP).This is a typical pattern that is highly consistent with classical development economics,which sees manufacturing as the engine of economic growth.When China became a middle-income country,its share of real manufacturing output and TFP both fell over the same period,exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward“premature deindustrialization”that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap.Accelerating China’s development as a manufacturing power,advancing high-tech manufacturing and improving the quality and efficiency of traditional industries are realistic options for the country’s industrial development strategy.展开更多
基金the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China,“Study on the Implementation of the New Concept of Development and the Modernization of National Governance”(Grant No.:17VZL002)the Youth Project“Quantitative Identification,Early Risk Warning and Countermeasures against the Middle Income Trap under the New Normal”(Grant No.:16CJL015)
文摘The internal consumption and production structure of the service industry that now dominates the Chinese economy needs to be optimized.Introducing supply-side structural reform to improve the in-depth integration of advanced manufacturing and the modern service industry and promoting a strong domestic market is the key to escaping the middle income trap.We use 1950-2010 data from 45 non-oil-exporting economies representing the structural evolution of the service industry worldwide to compare Asian economies that have passed through the middle income trap with Latin American counterparts that remain stuck in the trap,and thence proceed to construct a matched model that covers the consumption and production service industries and their supply of human capital,with the aim of identifying the formative mechanisms and conditions for escaping the middle income trap through upgrading the structure of the service industry.Substantially developing the production service sector,raising the supply of public services so as to cultivate the quantity and quality of human capital,and matching senior-level human capital with knowledge-intensive serviceindustries will propel the upgrading and transformation of China’s economic structure toward high-quality development.
文摘When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage,their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity(TFP).This is a typical pattern that is highly consistent with classical development economics,which sees manufacturing as the engine of economic growth.When China became a middle-income country,its share of real manufacturing output and TFP both fell over the same period,exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward“premature deindustrialization”that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap.Accelerating China’s development as a manufacturing power,advancing high-tech manufacturing and improving the quality and efficiency of traditional industries are realistic options for the country’s industrial development strategy.
