经济发展新的阶段性特征与中部崛起模式选择

当前,宏观经济发展出现了诸多新的阶段性特征,中部地区已经进入崛起阶段,从国家发展方式转变的宏观要求和中部地区区情出发,中部地区不能照搬东部沿海地区外向型发展模式,必须探索内源型和外向型相结合,以内源型为主的发展模式。内源型发展模式是指主要依靠国内市场、国内资源、国内技术和国内资本的发展模式,在此基础上,中部地区要将内源型发展和外向型发展有机结合起来,形成有中部特色的发展模式,最终达到与沿海外向型为主模式的互补和互动,推进全国发展方式的转变。

中部地区内源式发展模式的路径依赖

中部地区崛起已从战略启动期进入战略机遇期。从国家发展方式转变的宏观要求和中部地区实际情况出发,中部地区须探索内源型和外向型相结合,以内源型为主的发展模式。内源型发展模式主要依靠国内市场、国内资源、国内技术和国内资本的发展模式,中部地区要将内源型发展和外向型发展有机结合,形成有中部特色的发展模式,最终达到与沿海以外向型为主的发展模式的互补和互动,推进全国发展方式的转变。

Research on Comparative Advantage and Typical Models of Circular Agriculture Economy in Eastern and Mid-China Region

Developing agricultural circular economy is the important measures of relieving the pressure on agricultural resources, preserving the ecological environment and promoting the sustainable development of agriculture and rural economy. Based on the idea of circulation of agricultural research as the breakthrough point, the research firstly detailed the concept and scientific connotation of circular egdculture in an all-round way and described and analyzed the advantages and conditions of the development of circular agriculture in eastern and middle regions of China from three aspects including resources endowment, conditions of economic development and industrial base conditions. Furthermore, the research analyzed the model char- actedstics and summarized the successful ex^dence to provide a reference for promoting the models with consideration of Taihu Lake Basin in South of Jiangsu, Yi- meng mountain areas in Southeast of Shandong and hills and mountains region in northwest Henan. Finally, the reseach put forward the development orientation of agricultural circular economy and countermeasures and suggestions to further enhance the level of development.

Efects of Cropland Cover Changes on Regional Climate over Western China Based on Simulations with RegCM3

The impacts of land cover changes on regional climate with RegCM3. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by in Shaan-Gan-Ning （SGN） in western China were simulated replacing crop grids with different new land cover types in the key area of SGN, where the returning cropland to tree/grass project has been carried out since 1999. The modified new land cover types include desert, forest, shrub and grass. They represent degraded, improved, and maintained vegetation cover with natural canopy in the key area. Results from three individual case studies show that the land cover change causes changes in temperature and terrestrial water variables especially within the key area, while changes in precipitation are found for a larger area. The strongest changes appear where the cropland is degraded to bare soil, leading to increasing temperature and decreases in rainfall, evaporation and soil water. Opposite changes occur when cropland changed into forests, especially with strong increases in soil water. When cropland changed to grass and shrub land, the climatic changes are closer to those with forest cover. This shows the importance of improving and maintaining the vegetation in SGN for the ecosystem and regional climate.

Geographical Patterns of Chinese Ethnic Minority Population Composition and Ethnic Diversity

Ethnicity is a carrier of language and culture.Spatial distribution of ethnic diversity is fundamental for identifying and reconstructing the migration patterns and evolution histories of cultures and languages.Utilizing the Chinese 4th National Census (1990) data,we investigated the specific time geographical patterns of population and diversity of Chinese ethnicminorities.As anticipated,results show that Chineseminorities are chiefly concentrated in dis-tant plateaus and mountains in the southwest,northwest and northeast of China.Further,population density centers of the 10 majorminorities are rather scattered,alternatively dominating at different parts of the country.This study pro-vides a first comprehensive quantitative test on a prevailing notion of 'six plates and three corridors' on the empirical clustering patterns of Chinese ethnicminorities.There are more consistent evidences supporting this notion in the north of China,with the central and southern regions showing more complex patterns,potentially transformed by processes such as migration,fragmentation,and percolation.The results of this study suggest that a geographical ap-proach can provide heuristic and complementary information for better understanding of historical social processes.

Changes in Extreme Events as Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model for the Next 20-30 Years over China

In this paper, the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20-30 years (2021-2050) in relative to the present day (1986-2005) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed based on a high-resolution climate change simulation performed by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3). The extreme indices of summer days (SU), frost days (FD), and growing season length (GSL) for temperature and simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm d-1 (R10), and consecutive dry days (CDD) for precipitation are used as the indicators of the extremes. The results show that the indices simulated by RegCM3 in the present day show good agreement with the observed. A general increase in SU, a decrease in FD, and an increase in GSL are found to occur in the next 20-30 years over China. A general increase in SDII, an increase in R10 over western China, and a decrease in R10 in north, northeast, and central China are simulated by the model. Changes in CDD are characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south and the Tibetan Plateau.

Variation in downwelling diffuse attenuation coefficient in the northern South China Sea

The diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance(Kd(λ)) is an important parameter for ocean studies.Based on the optical profile data measured during three cruises in the northern South China Sea in autumn from 2003 to 2005,variations in the Kd(λ) spectra were analyzed.The variability of Kd(λ) shows much distinct features in both magnitude and spectra pattern,it is much higher in coastal waters than that of open oceanic waters;and the blue-to-green(443/555) ratio of Kd(λ) tends to increase with chlorophyll a concentration([Chl-a]) from open ocean to coastal waters.These characteristics can be explained most by the increase of aw+p(443)/aw+p(555) with [Chl-a].In short waveband,the relation between Kd(λ)-Kw(λ) and [Chl-a] can be well described by a power law function,indicating the large contribution of phytoplankton to the variations in Kd(λ).As for the spectral model of the diffuse attenuation coefficient,there are good linear relationships between Kd(490) and Kd(λ) in other wavelengths with own slope and intercept of a linear functions in the spectral range 412-555 nm.Kd(490) is well correlated with the spectral ratio of remote sensing reflectance;and should enough measurement data are given,this empirical algorithm would be used in the Kd(λ) retrieval from ocean color satellite data.The variation in Kd(λ) provides much useful information for us to study the bio-optical property in the northern South China Sea.

Phytoplankton pigment patterns and community composition in the northern South China Sea during winter

Phytoplankton pigment patterns and community composition were investigated in the northern South China Sea using high-performance liquid chromatography and the CHEMTAX software from February 11 to 23, 2009. We recognized four different vertical distribution patterns of pigments: chlorophyll a (Chl a)-like type, divinyl chlorophyll a (DV Chl a) type, even distribution type, and surface type. The average value of ratios of accessory photo-protective pigments (APP) to accessory photo-synthetic pigments was 0.89±0.63 in the upper 50 m and 0.16±0.06 below 50 m depth. With increasing depth, APP decreased and photo-synthetically active radiation was attenuated. There was an obvious succession in the phytoplankton community from inshore to the open sea. Diatoms were dominant in the inshore region, while pelagophytes, Prochlorococcus, cyanobacteria and prymnesiophytes were dominant in the open sea. The vertical distribution of phytoplankton also differed greatly from inshore to the open sea. In the coastal and shelf region, diatoms were important components in the whole water column. Cyanobacteria also had a high abundance at the Subsurface Chlorophyll a Maxima (SCM) in the shelf region. In the slope and open sea, Prochlorococcus and cyanobacteria were important groups above the SCM, while pelagophytes dominated below the SCM.

The Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China under RCP Scenarios using a CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

Climate changes in 21st century China are described based on the projections of 11 climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results show that warming is expected in all regions of China under the RCP scenarios, with the northern regions showing greater warming than the southern regions. The warming tendency from 2011 to 2100 is 0.06°C/10 a for RCP2.6, 0.24°C/10 a for RCP4.5, and 0.63°C/10 a for RCP8.5. The projected time series of annual temperature have similar variation tendencies as the new greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario pathways, and the warming under the lower emission scenarios is less than under the higher emission scenarios. The regional averaged precipitation will increase, and the increasing precipitation in the northern regions is significant and greater than in the southern regions in China. It is noted that precipitation will tend to decrease in the southern parts of China during the period of 2011-2040, especially under RCP8.5. Compared with the changes over the globe and some previous projections, the increased warming and precipitation over China is more remarkable under the higher emission scenarios. The uncertainties in the projection are unavoidable, and further analyses are necessary to develop a better understanding of the future changes over the region.

Effect of Decadal Changes in Air-Sea Interaction on the Climate Mean State over the Tropical Pacific

Collaboration of interannual variabilities and the climate mean state determines the type of E1 Nifio. Recent studies highlight the impact of a La Nifia-like mean state change, which acts to suppress the convection and low-level convergence over the central Pacific, on the predominance of central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio in the most recent decade. However, how interannual variabilities affect the climate mean state has been less thoroughly investigated. Using a linear shallow-water model, the ef- fect of decadal changes of air-sea interaction on the two types of El Nifio and the climate mean state over the tropical Pacific is examined. It is demonstrated that the predominance of the eastem Pacific （EP） and CP E1 Nino is dominated mainly by relationships between anomalous wind stresses and sea surface temperature （SST）. Furthermore, changes between air-sea interactions from 1980-98 to 1999-2011 prompted the generation of the La Ninalike pattern, which is similar to the background change in the most recent decade.

Regimes of Runoff Components on the Debris-covered Koxkar Glacier in Western China

By using a degree-day based distributed hydrological model, regimes of glacial runoff from the Koxkar glacier during 2007-2011 are simulated, and variations and characteristics of major hydrological components are discussed. The results show that the meltwater runoff contributes 67.4%, of the proglacial discharge, out of which snowmelt, clean ice melting, buried-ice ablation and ice-cliff backwasting account for 22.4%, 21.9%, 17.9% and 5.3% of the total melt runoff, respectively. Rainfall runoff is significant in mid-latitude glacierized mountain areas like Tianshan and Karakorum. In the Koxkar glacier catchment, about 11.5% of stream water is initiated from liquid precipitation. Spatial distributions for each glacial runoff component reveal the importance of climatic gradients, local topography and morphology on glacial runoff generation, and temporal variations of these components is closely related to the annual cycle of catchment meteorology and glacier storage. Four stages are recognized in the seasonal variations of glacier storage, reflecting changes in meltwater yields, meteorological conditions and drainage systems in the annual hydrological cycle.

The Extreme Summer Precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 Simulated by the LASG/IAP Regional Climate Model

The extreme summer precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 was simulated using the LASG/IAP regional climate model CREM(the Climate version of a Regional Eta-coordinate Model).The results show that the probability density functions(PDFs) of precipitation intensities are reasonably simulated,except that the PDFs of light and moderate rain are underestimated and that the PDFs of heavy rain are overestimated.The extreme precipitation amount(R95p) and the percent contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation(R95pt) are also reasonably reproduced by the CREM.However,the R95p and R95pt over most of East China are generally overestimated,while the R95p along the coastal area of South China(SC) is underestimated.The bias of R95pt is consistent with the bias of precipitation intensity on wet days(SDII).The interannual variation for R95p anomalies(PC1) is well simulated,but that of R95pt anomalies(PC2) is poorly simulated.The skill of the model in simulating PC1(PC2) increases(decreases) from north to south.The bias of water vapor transport associated with the 95th percentile of summer daily precipitation(WVTr95) explains well the bias of the simulated extreme precipitation.

How similar are annual and summer temperature variability in central Sweden?

Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions have successfully inferred the past inter-annual to millennium scales summer temperature variability. A clear relationship between annual and summer temperatures can provide insights into tile variability of past annual mean tem- perature from the reconstructed summer temperature. However, how similar are summer and annual temperatures is to a large extent still unknown. This study aims at investigating the relationship between annual and summer temperatures at different timescales in central Sweden during the last millennium. The temperature variability in central Sweden can represent large parts of Scandinavia which has been a key region for dendroclimatological research. The observed annual and summer temperatures during 1901-2005 were firstly decomposed into different frequency bands using ensemble empirical mode decomposition （EEMD） method, and then the scale-dependent relationship was quantified using Pearson correlation coefficients. The relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures determined by the instrumental data was subsequently used to evaluate 7 climate models. The model with the best performance was used to infer the relationship for the last millennium. The results show that the relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures becomes stronger as the timescale increases, except for the 4--16 years timescales at which it does not show any relationship. The summer temperature variability at short timescales （2--4 years） shows much higher variance than the annual variability, while the annual temperature variability at long timescales （〉32 years） has a much higher variance than the summer one. During the last millennium, the simulated summer temperature also shows higher variance at the short timescales （2-4 years） and lower variance at the long timescales （〉1024 years） than those of the annual temperature. The relationship between the two temperatures is generally close at the long timescales, and weak at the short timescales. Overall the summer temperature variability cannot well reflect the annual mean temperature variability for the study region during both the 20th century and the last millennium. Furthermore, all the climate models examined overestimate the annual mean temperature variance at the 2--4 years timescales, which indicates that the overestimate could be one of reasons why the volcanic eruption induced cooling is larger in climate models than in proxy data.

Dynamical Downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis for China:Climatic Means during 1981–2010

This study presents a dynamically downscaled climatology over East Asia using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model, forced by the Twentieth Century Reanalysis （20CR-v2）. The whole experiment is a 111-year （1900--2010） continuous run at 50 km horizontal resolution. Comparisons of climatic means and seasonal cycles among observations, 20CR-v2, and WRF results during the last 30 years （1981-2010） in China are presented, with a focus on sur- face air temperature and precipitation in both summer and winter. The WRF results reproduce the main features of surface air temperature in the two seasons in China, and outperform 20CR-v2 in regional details due to topog- raphic forcing. Summer surface air temperature biases are reduced by as much as 1℃-2℃. For precipitation, the simulation results reproduce the decreasing pattern from Southeast to Northwest China in winter. For summer rainfall, the WRF simulation results reproduce the correct magnitude and position of heavy rainfall around the southeastern coastal area, and are better than 20CR-v2. One of the significant improvements is that an unrealistic center of summer precipitation in Southeast China present in 20CR-v2 is eliminated. However, the simulated results underestimate winter surface air temperature in northern China and winter rainfall in some regions in southeastern China. The mean seasonal cycles of surface air tempera- ture and precipitation are captured well over most of sub-regions by the WRF model.

Summer Extreme Temperatures over East China during 1984-2004 Simulated by LASG/IAP Regional Climate Model CREM

The authors examine extreme summer temperatures over East China during 19844004 using a regional climate model named CREM （the Climate version of Regional Eta-coordinate Model）, which was developed by LASG/IAP. The results show that the main features of the extreme summer temperatures over East China are reproduced well by CREM, and the skill for the minimum temperature is higher than that for the maximum tem- perature, especially along the Yangtze-Huai River Valley （YHV）. The simulated extreme temperatures are lower than those of observation, especially for the maximum temperature. The bias of extreme temperatures is consistent with the cold bias of the climatological mean summer surface air temperature. The skill of the model in simulating the interannual variability of extreme temperatures increases from north to south. The simulated interannual variation of the minimum temperature is more reasonable than the maximum temperature. The underestimation of net solar radiation at the surface leads to a cold bias of the climatological mean temperature. Furthermore, the model underestimates the light and moderate rain, while overestimates heavy rain. It causes the simulated minimum temperature more reasonable than the maximum temperature.

Regional Climate Change and Uncertainty Analysis based on Four Regional Climate Model Simulations over China

Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.

Direct Radiative Forcing and Climatic Effects of Aerosols over East Asia by RegCM3

The authors used a high-resolution regional climate model （RegCM3） coupled with a chemistry/ aerosol module to simulate East Asian climate in 2006 and to test the climatic impacts of aerosols on regional- scale climate. The direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosols （dust, sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon） were discussed. The results indicated that aerosols generally produced negative radiative forcing at the top-of-the-atmosphere （TOA） over most areas of East Asia. The radiative forcing induced by aerosols exhibited significant seasonal and regional variations, with the strongest forcing occurring in summer. The aerosol feed- backs on surface air temperature and precipitation were clear. Surface cooling dominated features over the East Asian continental areas, which varied in the approximate range of-0.5 to -2℃ with the maximum up to -3℃ in summer over the deserts of West China. The aerosols induced complicated variations of precipitation. Except in summer, the rainfall generally varied in the range of-1 to 1 mm d^-1 over most areas of China.

The Time Horizon in the Evaluation of Sustainable Development

Current methods of evaluating long term Sustainable Development seldom take into account the time period over which an evaluation is made except through simplistic economic models which heavily discount the future. If sustainable development is to be a serious issue then the impact on the future of decisions made today must be properly assessed and evaluated. This requires a new understanding of time as a key feature of the Sustainability debate and new models of how this new understanding can be brought into the evaluation process. This was at the heart of the Torino declaration signed by the University organisations of the G8, G20 and developing nations in April 2009. Time is a critical part of the sustainability debate and is seldom addressed directly. This paper will provide a possible solution based on a strong theoretical and philosophical framework of how this difficult subject can be approached and applied to sustainable urban planning. The work presented is based on a philosophical model of the cosmos which has both internal and external credibility. It forms the basis ofa PhD study and has been applied to small case studies in Italy and elsewhere. These will be presented to encourage further study into this important area within the evaluation and assessment of sustainable development.

Rupture segmentation and slip partitioning of the mid-eastern part of the Kunlun Fault,north Tibetan Plateau

The Kunlun Fault, an active fault on the border between the Bayan Har and Kunlun-Qaidam blocks, is one of the major left lateral strike-slip faults in the Tibetan Plateau. Previous research has not reached a consensus on agreeable slip rates along much of its length and the slip rate gradient along the eastern part, both of which play critical roles in a range of models for the eastward extrusion and thickened crust of the Tibetan Plateau. New slip rates have been determined at sites along the eastern part of the Kunlun Fault by dating deposits and measuring atop displaced fluvial terrace risers. Field investigations and interpretation of satellite images reveal geometrical features of the fault and the late Quaternary offset, new earthquake ruptures and surface-rupturing segmentation, from which long-term slip rates and earthquake recurrence intervals on the fault are estimated. The tectonic geomorphology method has determined that the long-term horizontal slip rates on the Tuosuohu, Maqin and Ma- qu segments from west to east are 11.2±1, 9.3±2, and 4.9±1.3 mm/a while their vertical slip rates are 1.2±0.2, 0.7±0.1, and 0.3 mm/a in the late Quaternary. Results indicate that the slip rates regularly decrease along the eastern -300 km of the fault from 〉10 to 〈5 mm/a. This is consistent with the decrease in the gradient such that at the slip rate break point is at the triple point intersection with the transverse fault, which in turn is transformed to the Awancang Fault. The vector decomposition for this tectonic transformation shows that the western and eastern branches of the Awancang Fault fit the slip-partitioning mode. The slip rate of the southwestern wall is 4.6 mm/a relative to the northeastern wall and the slip direction is 112.1°. The mid-eastern part of the Kunlun Fault can be divided into three independent segments by the A＇nyemaqen double restraining bend and the Xigongzhou intersection zone, which compose the surface rupture segmentation indicators for themselves as well as the ending point of the 1937 M7.5 Tuosuohu earthquake. The average recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquakes are estimated to be 500-1000 a, respectively. The latest earthquake ruptures occurred in AD 1937 on the western Tuosuohu segment, as compared to -514-534 a BP on the Maqin segment, and -1055 to 1524 a BP on the Maqu segment. This may indicate a unidirectional migration for surface rupturing earthquakes along the mid-eastern Kunlun Fault related to stress triggered between these segments. Meanwhile, the long-term slip rate is obtained through the single event offset and the recurrence interval, which turn out to be the same results as those determined by the offset tectonic geomorphology method, i.e., the decreasing gradient corresponds to the geometrical bending and the fault＇s intersection with the transverse fault. Therefore, the falling slip rate gradient of the mid-eastern Kunlun Fault is mainly caused by eastward extension of the fault and its intersection with the transverse fault.

Contributions of anthropogenic and external natural forcings to climate changes over China based on CMIP5 model simulations

Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols(AAs), and land use(LU)) and external natural forcings(Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%–99% of the observed temperature change from 1951–1975 to 1981–2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2–3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%–78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960 s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970 s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China.