This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, whe...This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.展开更多
文摘This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.
